Bracketology: Mid January Edition

Submitted by ish on January 15th, 2013 at 12:12 PM

Lundardi's latest is up:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Michigan is a 2 seed and he has us at Auburn Hills, which is almost as good as a 1 seed.

Other notes:

  • 7 B1G teams
  • Iowa among the first four out
  • IU a 1 seed; OSU a 3
  • Minnesota also a 3 seed, which I think isn't good enough for that team.

And yes, I know there's limited value to a January bracketology and I don't take this as gospel. 

Comments

mGrowOld

January 15th, 2013 at 12:26 PM ^

To me the West looks the hardest and the South looks the easiest but obviously this is anything but official and it's a long way to the announcement.

Does anybody else find it nice though to look at these things and not have to wonder if you'll see our name anywhere but rather who we'll play and how high we're projected to be seeded?  Man it wasnt that long ago that the first place I looked was "next four out" to see if we were even in the conversation.

 

stmccoy

January 15th, 2013 at 12:29 PM ^

Minnesota deserves a #3 seed more than OSU does in my opinion.  OSU still has a pretty weak resume, despite it's win over us.  These things are obviously extremely fluid so we'll see what next week brings. 

AJ1913

January 15th, 2013 at 12:38 PM ^

We will probably stay a 2 seed. Sunday was almost a must win to have a shot at the 1 seed. Just hold court at home and win a few big ones on the road and we should be in Auburn Hills for the 1st and 2nd rd.

aiglick

January 15th, 2013 at 12:44 PM ^

I would say it's very fluid. If we were to win games at the Barn and Assembly Hall I'm not sure you'd be able to find bigger wins in the country.

Lot of season left and you're probably right that right now we're a 2 seed but never know who teams will lose to and win to. Basically don't think @ Ohio was a must win.

Big game in a couple of days.

Nick

January 15th, 2013 at 12:45 PM ^

I think you may need to re-calibrate your projections for what it will take to earn a 1 seed.

If Michigan goes 14-4 in conference while winning the league title, they'll get a #1.

AJ1913

January 15th, 2013 at 12:51 PM ^

I feel Sunday was the type of game down the road that will determine whether or not we can be a one seed. Now obviously we can win out and we will be the number one overall seed in the tournament.  I was solely just trying to say that in a game like Sunday's it would have been such a huge step towards that one seed as it knocks off a potential conference road loss.I feel we have 2 or 3 more potential road losses. Not saying that they are, just possible. So with that  I will agree with your 14-4 record, as long as we dont let that loss on Sunday become a loss on Thursday. Should be real interesting and exciting to see how this team responds to a loss.

UM Indy

January 15th, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^

IU is the best team in the country, followed by Michigan.  IU has similar scoring power to us, but is better defensively.  I admit I haven't seen much of Duke, Louisville or Kansas.

EECS Grad '15

January 15th, 2013 at 1:12 PM ^

Duke's depth is suspect. If they lose any player for an extended period they might lose a few games.That said their starting five are as good as any in the country. Kansas seems to be rounding into from after some early season bumps, and that redshirt Freshman of theirs is good.

cadmus2166

January 15th, 2013 at 2:09 PM ^

I would take our bracket in a heartbeat.  None of the other teams in the bottom half scare me, so it likes like Lousville, or whoever came out of the top half to make it to the Elite 8 would be the first real test.

Mr. Yost

January 15th, 2013 at 3:07 PM ^

With that said, there is SO much basketball to be played. Personally, I think we'll finish the year with 4 losses, including one to Indiana in the B1G Tournament final.

With that said, 3 losses in the B1G probably gets us an outright B1G Regular Season Championship. Hell last year we had 5 losses and tied for first.

Last year MSU was a #1 seed with 7 losses. Mizzou was a #2 with 4.

If we have 4 losses, playing in the toughest conference in the country, we're a 1-seed. No question.

I think Duke could fall again without Kelly, but the ACC is down. I'll give them 3 losses.

I'll give Louisville the overall #1 seed, so they'd get the Midwest (unfortunately).

I see Kansas and Indiana being right there with Michigan and Duke. I just have a feeling they'd go with both B1G team because the conference is so tough.

I'd even put Minnesota on the 2-line when things are all said and done.

I'll say:

(1) Louisville - Midwest
(1) Indiana - East
(1) Michigan - South
(1) Duke - West
(2) Kansas - South
(2) Syracuse - East
(2) Arizona - West
(2) Minnesota - Midwest

 

E. Gordon Gee

January 15th, 2013 at 3:58 PM ^

Are you assuming Michigan only loses to IU once that being in the B1G tourny and sweep them in the regular season? If so, Michigan deserves the #1 seed after going into Bloomington and winning.  I find it difficult to give both Indiana and Michigan a #1 seed for your scenario. In fact, it may be impossible for two teams from the same conferene to get the #1 seed if they play three times and a team wins 2 of 3. Huge IF here! 

Mr. Yost

January 15th, 2013 at 4:19 PM ^

We could lose Thursday @ Minnesota and then @ Indiana...that would give us 3 losses in the B1G. Lose to IU in the championship game of my scenario and that would be one way it could play out.

We'd still have a win over OSU, Indiana and a sweep of MSU and Illinois in this scenario.

Mr. Yost

January 15th, 2013 at 4:24 PM ^

If IU were to beat us 2 out of 3 (one game in IU and another in Indianapolis)...and end up with 4 or even 5 losses, I'm not sure how you could put Michigan ahead of them. With that, you certainly wouldn't put them that far behind either.

E. Gordon Gee

January 15th, 2013 at 5:29 PM ^

I would be willing to give Michigan a #1 seed in this scenario due to the strength of the conference. As much as everyone likes to drink Indiana Kool-Aid they will get their fair share of loses. I still see Minnesota, Michigan and Indiana being tied at season end and I think it might happen again this year but if you construct the resume for Michigan you describe they get the nod in my book. 

What are your thoughts on Wisconsin btw? Do you see Michigan winning or losing? I wouldn't be quick overlook Wisconsin. How many times have we saw them take out teams in the Kohl center and given Bo has a 90% home winning percentage winning there is about as hard as winning at Michigan St. (Flamebait material here) 

Either way you slice it Michigan will likely get a #1/#2 seed and my expectations for Michigan is to make it to at least the elite 8. Hard to argue they aren't one of the 8 best teams in the country even with the lost to OSU. 

LSAClassOf2000

January 15th, 2013 at 4:06 PM ^

Big Ten projections as of Monday:

 

Team Any Bid Auto At Large #1 Seed Top 4 Seed Sweet 16 Final 4 Champ%
Indiana 100% 46% 54% 61% 97% 80% 44% 18.90%
Minnesota 100% 14% 86% 13% 78% 56% 15% 3.30%
Michigan 99% 13% 86% 11% 71% 54% 15% 3.10%
Ohio State 97% 12% 85% 1% 31% 43% 11% 2.40%
Wisconsin 87% 8% 79% 0% 13% 29% 6% 1.10%
Michigan St 89% 4% 85% 0% 10% 22% 4% 0.40%
Illinois 69% 1% 68% 0% 4% 10% 1% 0.10%
Iowa 15% 1% 14% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0.00%
Northwestern 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00%
Nebraska 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00%
Penn State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00%

It's interesting that the Ohio State loss did not significantly impact these too much actually, but I think the outcome of the Minnesota game has some potential to make a marked impact on the projected probabilities for seeding, if nothing else. Right now, I would agree with this in that we stand a very good shot at least being a top four seed and a win at Minnesota significantly impacts (positively) the potential for a #1 in their model (or at least my understanding of how they come up with this).

chatster

January 15th, 2013 at 5:36 PM ^

How times have changed. It seems that in recent years, as of January 15, this board often had as many discussions of the college hockey PWR rankings to determine where Michigan would be playing in the NCAA tournament as it did of bracketologists’ projections of whether and where Michigan would be seeded in the NCAA basketball tournament.

At this point, barring unforeseen injuries, illnesses and academic casualties leading to a total collapse, the Michigan men’s basketball team should be getting a high seed in the NCAA tournament.

While Joe Lunardi has capitalized on self-promotion and ESPN’s infatuation with his version of bracketology, his projections in recent years haven’t been as good as many of the other Bracketologists.* For a more-complete view of where the Wide World of Bracketologists projects Michgan to land in the 2013 NCAA field, consider bookmarking The Bracket Project website and its Bracket Matrix. http://bracketproject.50webs.com/  

Absent a magical turnaround to their season, further conversations about the 2012-2013 Michigan hockey team may be more focused on (a) whether the Wolverines will be able to secure home ice in the opening round of the CCHA tournament by finishing 8th or better in the standings (they're currently tied for 8th, but only three points up on last place Bowling Green and with all remaining games against teams ranked higher in the standings), (b) how Red Berenson will react to reaching the end of the longest streak of a team appearing in the NCAA hockey tournament, and (c) whether there are two Division-One caliber goalies available for the 2013-2014 team.**** 

* In the Bracket Project’s Bracketologist Rankings, Lunardi is ranked 36th out of 65 bracketologists. http://bracketproject.50webs.com/rankings.html 

** Michigan hockey's defense is ranked 54th out of 59 Division One teams in total defense.  By comparison, another team using two freshman goalies, Boston University, is ranked 27th in total defense. And they're playing two freshmen and a sophomore on defense.