Bracketology: 6 Seed in South
As was expected, after recording critical wins against Ohio State and Penn State, Michigan moved down (????) in Lunardi's bracket.
The hell??
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Matrix is not updated as of yet.
February 22nd, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
Amount of UVA basketball this year. There's something about them this season that seems to be different. While their offense isn't great, or pretends to be, they have some guys that can score and bust them out of a funk, which they really haven't had in the past.
Handling Carolina the way they did, and going into Duke and taking care of business, they have been really impressive.
February 22nd, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^
That's interesting, I will admit that I have only seen Virginia a few times this year so you likely have the more educated opinion, but I kind of thought the opposite. I had the feeling that this year was the year that they didn't have that guy they could rely on such as Brogdon or Perrantes of years' past. Either way, Virginia relies almost entirely on their control of pace and ability to defend and win the TO margin. I don't think we are a great matchup, but i don't think it would be the worst. Would rather play them than someone like Duke who's athletic bigs would be able to defend against Wagner's versatility.
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^
Brogdon, Perrantes, Guy, Jerome are pretty much the same.
Their top 3 scorers all shoot around .400 from three, so they have a lot more options to dig themselves out of a hole if need be. If you comb through their stats from the last 5-10 years, it's usually one main guy, maybe two that have range. This team has a lot more ability to stretch out.
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^
But they still like to play at the slowest tempo in the nation (351 of 351), a full five possessions per game slower than Michigan (!) at about 59 per. So, I figure between two teams that like to use every second of the shot clock and don't turn the ball over much, it's a 55 possession game dominated by defense. :)
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:25 PM ^
And Michigan tends to get into these lulls where they beat themselves. If they get down 6 in the second half against these guys, they can suck the life out of you.
I'd rather see them play against a team that goes up and down like them.
February 22nd, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 4:52 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
anyone watching college basketball, without their heads up their asses, not think we are one of the top 16 teams in the country right now? If we beat Maryland on the road, and ultimately Nebraska in the quarterfinals of the BIG tourney - we deserve a 4 seed, dammit!
February 22nd, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
I think Michigan is right on that border. Some days they look like a top 5 team, other days they look like they belong in the MAC.
With that being said, I think 15-18 is a fair range to qualify this team.
February 22nd, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
logic and range are sound, and also understand that the seed is based on your total resume. But my statement on the top 16 not just based on "homer" tendencies - look at the teams ranked around 15-20, other than us:
Clemson: 15-6 record, but losers of last 3 games including Virginia Tech loss last night. We are better.
OSU: Better BIG record, but now showing weakness. We are better on a neutral court, and would be favored by oddsmakers there.
Rhode Island - Decent team, but over last week lost to St. Bonaventures and squeezed past mighty La Salle 95-93. Great defense in that game... We are better.
Tennessee - Losers of last 2 of 4, v Alabama and Georgia. In football, that would be respectable, hoops not so much. Georgia is 6-8 in the SEC. We are better.
Keep going down the list - Nevada, West Virginia, St. Marys, Houston. We are better and would be favored on neutral court.
We are a 4 seed!
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^
Michigan might be favored on a neutral court against the teams around them, although there's a lot of recency bias in there. Was Michigan really that much worse when they had lost 3 of their last 6 (immediately after Northwestern) than they are now?
However, as you said at the beginning, the seed is based on the résumé, not the team that woudl be favored on a neutral court. Michigan just doesn't have it, and the weak Big Ten is preventing them from getting it.
February 22nd, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^
I don't think teams like Nevada, RI, WVU, or St. Marys should be ranked ahead of M. Clemson, OSU, that's up in the air for sure.
If you are looking for a couple of 4-5s that will be ripe for an upset, look no further than Clemson, RI, or Nevada. They are going to get an inflated seed, and quite honestly I don't think they are very good.
February 22nd, 2018 at 9:15 PM ^
i watched them play unlv. man, that was some bad basketball. i thought it looked like high school ball.
February 22nd, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
UVa notwithstanding, that would actually be a great bracket to find ourselves in.
Besides, who wouldn't want to beat Louisville again?
February 22nd, 2018 at 4:04 PM ^
I torn on whether they would want to setup that matchup to talk about it being another re-match, or whether they'd want to avoid the topic now that its been vacated...
February 22nd, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
want a job where they just make stuff up?
February 22nd, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
This is a fantastic racket. You fill the vacuum that exists for people trying to find something about their team and there are no consequences for being wrong. It’s tails I’m right, heads you forget.
February 22nd, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
It seems to me this is part of a larger shift of views on the Big 10. Purdue and Sparty are twos, and Ohio has been downgraded. Also Nebrashka is out (and curiously Penn State is just ahead of Nebrashka).
February 22nd, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
Almost in the 30k point club!!! What's it like up there?
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 6:02 PM ^
What it means, once you reach the 30,000 points plateau, is that you get the corporate card - albeit with a paltry limit - and a reduced rate on hookers and blow. Not terribly reduced, but should you so choose, you would have enough left over to buy some greasy late night dinner which you will later throw up in a dumpster.
Trust me, I've been there.
February 22nd, 2018 at 8:40 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 6:12 PM ^
RPI is also used in hockey, and is in fact far more important in hockey than in basketball. And has the same cliff-edge problem in the "quality win bonus" that only considers wins against top-20 teams. Oh and also gets adjusted because you can potentially lose points if one of the teams on your schedule happens to be so bad that beating them loses you points.
February 22nd, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^
Would love it if we ended up in Wichita. I'd go to both games.
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^
This team is going to win out, BTT included and be a 3 seed in Detroit on the first weekend.
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
I was actually going to ask a question around this. Is there any way that Michigan gets to play in the Detroit regional? What needs to happen for that to be the case?
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^
They'll assign teams to the regionals based upon the block of four teams that they're in, with the top seed having the benefit of distance. So, MSU and Purdue likely go to Detroit. Michigan can't play either of them in the second round unless there are like 9 Big Ten teams, which isn't happening. So, realistically, you'd need one or the other or those teams to be seeded below Michigan.
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:21 PM ^
That's what I thought. A damned shame.
February 22nd, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 4:32 PM ^
But you are looking at the 2013 team in a bubble, instead of in the grand scheme of things. 2013 also had Dayton as a regional, so even though there were 3 teams ahead of michigan in terms of seeding (MSU, OSU and Indiana) , only one of those teams were closer to Auburn Hills than Dayton (MSU), so Michigan got the second slot in Auburn Hills. If the regionals had been the same as they are this year, then Indiana and Ohio State would have gone to Detroit, and we would have gone somewhere like Nashville or Pittsburgh.
Unfortunately this year, MSU, OSU, and Purdue are all likely going to be higher seeds with nowhere closer to go than Detroit. That is bad news for our chances.
February 22nd, 2018 at 4:33 PM ^
2013 had both Dayton and Lexington as first-round sites also. 2018 has Pittsburgh and Nashville. The committee was able to put Michigan in Auburn Hills in 2013 because OSU and Indiana could go to Dayton, putting Michigan and Michigan State both into Ann Arbor. It's tougher to do this year. Michigan could be behind MSU, OSU, Cincinnati, Xavier, and Purdue, all vying for spots close to home. There just aren't enough, especially if Michigan is a top 4 seed. If they were a 6 seed, they might luck out and get Detroit in Cincinnati's pod, but you'd still be rooting for either MSU or PSU to stub their toes and end up lower than Cincinnati in the pecking order.
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:23 PM ^
Only 4 teams projected in the Dance, woof. Crazy how bad Maryland, IU, Wisconsin, NW and Minnesota are this year.
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
At all.
I think MSU is locked into a 2 right now, unless they win the BTT. If they do that, they'll get up to a 1.
I don't think a loss to Wisconsin puts them at a 3.
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:55 PM ^
I answered below thinking that was to what he was referring
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:53 PM ^
If MSU, OSU, and Purdue all end up 15-3, OSU is the #1 seed, MSU is #2, and Purdue is #3.
February 22nd, 2018 at 3:57 PM ^
February 22nd, 2018 at 4:38 PM ^
Pitino, Lunardi...I am sensing a pattern here.
Is Vitale the only sane Italian coach around since Valvano passed?
February 22nd, 2018 at 4:55 PM ^
error
February 22nd, 2018 at 4:54 PM ^
Why not be a 6 seed. You postpone day of reckoning with a 1 seed, and for that you play a slightly better seed in the 1st two rounds. So what. Unless Michigan will be a 2 or 3 seed (unlikely) a 6 seed is not only fine but in my view preferred to a 4 or 5. Let the team get their sea legs under them in the first weekend and delay the 1 seed until the regional final, when they will paint their masterpiece.
February 22nd, 2018 at 6:00 PM ^