Bracketology: 5 Seed/Midwest

Submitted by uncle leo on February 19th, 2018 at 9:09 AM

Lunardi has moved us up to a 5 seed in the newest version:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

And before everyone yells at me about Bracket Matrix. It hasn't been updated to account for yesterday's victory yet.

I do believe CBS's version has been updated, and still has Michigan at 7.

 

I would be a'ok with that region. Tennessee as the 4, Xavier as the 1.

Comments

FauxMo

February 19th, 2018 at 9:18 AM ^

I saw a couple yesterday that still have MSU as a 3 seed. How hard would that suck, to be the #2 ranked team but a 3-seed? What's up wit dat??? 

TrueBlue2003

February 19th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^

any more than it is true of MSU.

Texas Tech played Seton Hall and a very good Nevada team plus neutral site games against teams with pulses in Northwestern and Boston College.  Sure, it was the 308th ranked OOC schedule by kenpom but MSU's is the 305th.  Splitting hairs there.

Texas Tech won at Kansas, at TCU, home WVU, and home Nevada.  MSU's wins against UNC and Purdue, neither of which were true road games are their only wins that come close to TTU's top 4.

I think MSU is a better team, but their resume's are very close.  I also doubt that MSU is still behind TTU.

It's probably extremely close between TTU, Purdue and MSU for the fourth  2 seed right now, and I'd give it to MSU but committee might value having a high volume of Q1 wins over beating everyone not in that tier.

bronxblue

February 19th, 2018 at 4:55 PM ^

I remain on the fence about Nevada.  They seem like a prime example of a team that sorta games the RPI a bit, since they have exactly 1 win against a top-50 RPI team (a win against equally-baffling #7 Rhode Island) and a bunch of 50-100 wins that just barely qualify (5 of their 9 top-100 wins are ranked 94 or higher).  They also have some losses to 100+ ranked teams at home.

But beyond that, their bet OOC win is BC at 90th.  And the Big 12, in my opinion, feels a bit like the SEC was like in football in years past, where everyone got to be ranked so every win or loss was a "quality" one and nobody was all that good but they never dropped out of the rankings.  Kansas looks their usual self.  But OU is somehow #32 in RPI and are 4-8 in their last 12, and you have teams like TCU and WVU hanging around in the top 30 despite falling apart down the stretch.

I guess I just don't see the love affair the committee seems to have with teams from the Big 12 this year.  And yet every time I look at the brackets, there's freaking OU and WVU hanging out a good seed line or two above Michigan for no good reason and it leads to be reflexing defend MSU (!!!) of all teams because of the bias.

TrueBlue2003

February 20th, 2018 at 12:32 AM ^

like RPI thinks, but they're 18th in kenpom.  I've watched them play and think they're really good. 

They're basically an interchangable collection of 6'7 guys that are all athletic and can shoot threes. They also only have one home loss which is a bit of a head-scratcher to an ok UNLV team.

FWIW, I watched them lose to Wyoming in OT so it's not like I saw them playing at their best. Wyoming was just making everything at home and you could tell that Nevada has a lot of talent.

Like I said, I'm personally not really buying Texas Tech this year talent-wise and think MSU is better, but I'm merely pointing out that their resume is very close and tough to be confused about the being on the same seed line as MSU.

Whole Milk

February 19th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^

Yeah, the two things that are holding state back at this point are a bad non-conference schedule and the fact that their unbalanced conference schedule didn't lend themselves to get many opportunites for big wins, and those that they had, they lost. They only played Ohio State, Us, and Purdue once each, two of those at home, and still only went 1-2. 

Anyone griping about MSU's seed hasn't been paying attention. They beat Purdue, but their next best win since November was on the road at Maryland. The debate then comes down to what is more important, the lack of bad losses, or the quality of your wins. WIth the commitee seeding state as a #3, they clearly are weighing more heavily on the latter. 

HireWayne

February 19th, 2018 at 9:26 AM ^

I would love to get a four seed and get the Detroit site for 1st and 2nd round.  I think the NCAA would prefer it as well for ticket sales.

But alot has to go right for that to happen.

uncle leo

February 19th, 2018 at 9:30 AM ^

And get a couple wins in the BTT, it COULD happen. Doubtful, but it could.

It's crazy to say this now, but I just don't see Michigan winning at Penn State this week. They are playing incredibly well, and I don't trust this team away from Crisler right now.

But you never know.

MH20

February 19th, 2018 at 9:57 AM ^

 

and I don't trust this team away from Crisler right now.

That's odd considering Michigan just went into the Kohl Center and got only its third victory ever in that building.  This team is on a three-game winning streak where they have looked good/great for large stretches of each contest.  You could say that PSU is playing too well to be beaten at BJC and I could agree with that but to say that you can't trust Michigan on the road when they just soundly defeated Wisconsin at the Troll Center doesn't jive.

uncle leo

February 19th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^

Hit and miss away from home. Sometimes they look great (MSU), but other times they look like they don't want to be at the arena (Nebraska, Northwestern, LSU neutral).

I wouldn't necessarily cite the Wisconsin win as a great road win. They suck.

I'm speaking more to the hit or miss mentality they seem to have away from Michigan.

jmblue

February 19th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^

I don't know what you said earlier, but PSU has won six of its last eight, and the two losses were close games at MSU and Purdue.  Doesn't seem like the profile of a team that sucks.  They're fighting for their tourney lives and Wednesday will be Senior Night.  We've got to bring our A game.

 

 

 

Perkis-Size Me

February 19th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^

Were you one of the same guys who said we'd easily whoop Nebraska or Northwestern? 

Come on, man. I'll admit that when this team is on its game it can beat anyone. But on the other side of the coin, when they go cold on shooting, literally anyone can beat them. Penn State swept OSU this season and took Purdue to the brink on the road last night. They're not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination, and have a potential conference player of the year on their team. 

We're just playing for seeding at this point while Penn State has all its postseason hopes on life support. We're going to be facing two very, VERY desperate teams this week. And on the road. I wouldn't be surprised if we beat both of them or neither of them. 

BoCanHam15

February 19th, 2018 at 11:29 AM ^

I clearly stated that I only predicted that we’d beat Wisconsin at the Troll center because they aren’t that good of a team! Also I simply said that Penn State as a team they aren’t world beaters. For the record they just like all other decent teams in the BIG10 yes they can win at home. I’m just stating what I see and I predict that we are playing just as well at this point in the season and we have a lot to play for also. They lost to Northwestern also and we beat OSU also. There is no apples to apples in College basketball. See: St. John’s basketball record!

jmblue

February 19th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^

LSU was different than those other two.  We played pretty well most of the game and had a nine-point lead with five minutes left - and then collapsed.

Those five bad minutes unfortunately may have cost us a seed line (particularly since we then had to play D-II Chaminade instead of Notre Dame in the next game).  Ugh.

 

jmblue

February 19th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^

But the issue isn't so much about LSU vs. ND, but Chaminade vs ND.  That collapse was a one-two punch of losing to LSU and hurting our strength of schedule.  

(Granted, we also won close games at home against Minnesota and Maryland, as well as VCU in that same Hawaii tournament, so our luck hasn't been all bad.)  

 

 

bronxblue

February 19th, 2018 at 4:57 PM ^

Absolutely.  But I do think Michigan probably loses that game against ND; the Domers were playing great then, and Michigan was still scuttling a bit.  Right now, of course, I think Michigan blitzes that whole tournament.  I do agree that playing and losing to ND would have been better because at least you get that LSU win.  But right now, these look like two teams that really wouldn't help or hurt Michigan's seeding all that much.