Bracket Matrix up for 2014. Currently projecting a 3 seed

Submitted by Bosch on January 29th, 2014 at 11:10 AM

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

For those who aren't familiar, Bracket Matrix is hosted by the Bracket Project blog and is a compilation of basically every projection on the interwebs.  If you have your own blog and want to post a projection, you can be included in the Matrix.  Teams are "seeded" by their average projection.

Not all sources on the Matrix have updated since the State game, Lunardi included.  Of those that have updated on the 26th or later, Michigan has been projected as a:

  • 2 seed 10 times
  • 3 seed 32 times
  • 4 seed 10 times
  • 5 seed 4 times
  • 6 seed 1 time
  • 7(!) seed 1 time

The remaining projections (updated on 25th or earlier) have Michigan as a:

  • 3 seed 1 time
  • 4 seed 5 times
  • 5 seed 2 times

You are going to have some absurd outliers with open participation so the logic is somewhat flawed.  Nevertheless, the fact that it compiles all of the sources, including the major ones often cited here, makes it a worthwhile inclusion to your favorites.

 

Comments

ChiBlueBoy

January 29th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^

I understand Wisconsin had a typhoid outbreak 3 days before our arrival; Iowa lost 3 players in a plane crash in Nepal, and another two who were eaten by the survivors; and Izzo is now reporting that shortly before the game his team was plagued by The Plague. We are the Typhoid Mary of the NCAA.

animalfarm84

January 29th, 2014 at 11:28 AM ^

Thanks for posting this, I wasn't aware of this blog before.  

After a quick glance, I wonder whether some of these projections even ought to be included in their compilation.  For example, I'm a big Cincinnati basketball fan, and I noticed that one bracket didn't even have UC in the tournament (or, for that matter, in the first four or next four out).  UC may not be a title contender, but they are 19-2, ranked 15th or better in both polls, and 23rd on kenpom.  

LSAClassOf2000

January 29th, 2014 at 11:30 AM ^

I go to this site occasionally and what is always intriguing to me is the relative consistency that seems to exist among opinion on the top 3 or 4 seeds generally. I was going through and getting standard deviations on rankings here for kicks this morning, and Michigan's is 0.99, but then you get down to Ohio State, where opinions vary much more at 1.14 and then Minnesota at 1.17. 

Thanks for sharing this though. I agree that it is great resource. 

MH20

January 29th, 2014 at 11:33 AM ^

This dude's bracket is pretty funny.  He's the one who has Michigan as a 7 seed, along with Minnesota (ha).  And this is after the MSU game.

Other gems include UMASS as a 3 seed (lol), Missouri as a 6 seed (LOL), and OSU on the 3 line (BAHAHAHAHAHAHADKSDSJFSD;HLSDFA;OL\SDAL\;H).

http://gmoneysportspage.blogspot.com/

Blue Mike

January 29th, 2014 at 3:09 PM ^

What I found most glaring is that both of those blogs still list MSU as the B1G leader.  Clearly those guys just hit "update" on their bracket page on monday morning, maybe move one or two teams around, and then show their friends that they are such experts on college basketball that they are included in the bracket matrix.

chatster

January 29th, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^

I've been following The Bracket Project for several years, and agree that it has been a great resource for those of us who like to check on tournament projections developing during the college basketball season. 

Unfortunately, because of the proliferation of blogs and websites that engage in predicting the tournament field and seeding, there are the occasional outliers.

To give you an idea of the blogs and websites to follow during the season, The Bracket Project ranks the bracketologists with respect to their predictions, based on a scoring system developed several years ago.  Here's the link to that page: http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

As you'll see, for those Bracketologists who've been making predictions to The Bracket Project for at least three seasons, ESPN's Joe Lunardi is ranked 35th, CBS's Jerry Palm is ranked 38th and Sports Illustrated's Andy Glockner is ranked 39th among the 67 Bracketologists rated.  For those Bracketologists who've been making predictions since at least 2006, Lunardi is ranked sixth and Palm is ranked seventh.

Please remember that, under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, visits to your Bracketologist are fully covered and March Madness no longer is considered a pre-existing condition.

jtmc33

January 29th, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^

I just filled out the bracket -

Michigan opens with Manhattan in the 3 v. 14.  Then Virginia, after they beat the Providence/Ariz.State 11-seed play-in.    Then it's UM v. #2 Villanova... overtime victory.

UM beats Cindarella #8 Texas in the Elite 8 before the Final Four - beating the South's #5 Loiuville by 12 in a rematch of last year's title game.

In the final UM beats #1 Arizona by 3.  Stauskas had only 13 points, but LeVert has 21 and Horford avoids foul trouble and gets 11 rebounds.   We all had a lot of fun.

So, we can just stop the season now and raise our banner.

Tater

January 29th, 2014 at 2:55 PM ^

I want to see anything better than seven.  That greatly increases the odds of getting to the second week.  The 11-16 seeds usually don't belong in the tournament, while the 7-10 seeds end up playing a 1 or a 2 their second game.  

That being said, if the Wolverines aren't seeded third or better, the odds are very much against them.  

8th seed Villanova is the lowest seed to win it all, doing so in 1985.  Since the 64-team tournament began in 1979, 6th seed Kansas in 1988 and 4th seed Arizona in 1997 are the only seeds worse than 3rd to win it all.

It would be a lot more fun if they run the table, but a third seed or better would be great.   As long as they aren't seven or worse, they should reach the  second week, which would have been looking really great to most of us ten days ago.

 

aiglick

January 29th, 2014 at 8:15 PM ^

Another great resource is realtimerpi.com. You can see RPIs and SOSs for every team and see the trend in terms of strong positive or negative movement. It updates daily in the early afternoon except for Sundays. We are currently RPI 13 with an SOS of 13.

Edit: Most Big Ten teams are sub-100.