Bracket Collapse - Only one team left before finals that we won't be a KenPom favorite over.

Submitted by JamieH on March 18th, 2018 at 9:05 PM

The team obviously cannot look ahead and must take the games one at a time. But if you look at the collapse of the brackets, there is only 1 team left between Michigan and the Final Game that they will be a KenPom underdog to -- 4 seed Gonzaga.

The ratings will be updated further, but as of right now, Michigan is KenPom #10. Texas A&M is #24. Xavier is #14. Gonzaga is #7. The highest KenPom team left in the South is Kentucky at #15. So essentially, Michigan would be a slight KenPom underdog to Gonzaga, and at least a slight KenPom favorite against every other opponent till the title game.

So, basically, why NOT us?

EDIT:  DUH of course we have to play better.  I thought that was kind of a given, since we had to beat Houston on a buzzer chuck by a freshman reserve.  My point was that if the team comes to play, the bracket has been thinned out to the point that we will be essentially favorites against almost everyone left until the finals, if we can manage to keep playing. No one left on the left side of the bracket who will be picked to blast us.  

Comments

Robbie Moore

March 18th, 2018 at 9:54 PM ^

Around our team. We can absolutely suck and somehow win.See Penn State late in the season, Iowa in the B1G tournament first round and Houston last night. After the Iowa near debacle we bombed the next three teams to win the tourney. Wouldn't surprise me here to see the same thing. We play like we did against MSU and Purdue and we're going to San Antonio.

If...

TrueBlue2003

March 19th, 2018 at 12:32 AM ^

something Michigan fans aren't used to but this what a good defense does for you.

We didn't even play that badly against Houston, we just missed a ton of open threes.  And still won (yes, on a miracle), but even with a terrible shooting night and awful reffing, the defense kep it close enough for a miracle to be possible. 

TrueBlue2003

March 19th, 2018 at 12:45 AM ^

Buffalo did whatever they wanted against them, they just missed a ton of open threes. UK isn't a very disciplined defense and we'd get lots of open looks. I might even prefer them to Nevada out of that region.  Nevada can bomb it from three and presents all kinds of match-up problems.

I'm much more scared of Gonzaga than UK.  They're experienced, disciplined, talented and much better coached (and I've been saying this about them since they showed up in our bracket).

And yes, Duke looks terrifying but we wouldn't have to face them until final.

Texas A&M scares me more than UK, in fact.  Williams is a total beast and will be a big problem.

bklein09

March 18th, 2018 at 9:35 PM ^

I think they had a really good game today, and UNC was ice cold from 3. I’d be more concerned if we were playing them two days from now.

But with a week off and a new venue, who knows if they’ll still be on fire or if we’ll continue to struggle on offense. A season’s worth of data says we’re the better team, and that would not have been true against UNC.

RobM_24

March 18th, 2018 at 9:40 PM ^

They had dudes that were getting their heads above the rim on rebounds. They have serious size and athleticism. However, they also gave UNC a ton of open threes, and UNC still only shot 19%. I'm not sure we can win this one without some firepower from 3. And if the refs call it the same as they have been, we'll need Austin Davis probably.

TrueBlue2003

March 19th, 2018 at 12:55 AM ^

they are very good in the interior and Williams is a lottery pick.  They go 6'10, 6'10, 6'9 in the front court!

They do turn the ball over quite a bit though.  It will be important to turn them over on 18-20 percent of the their possessions (so at least their season avg). 

If that happens, I'd really like our chances if we hit something like 9-24 from three or better (also our season avg).

The Fan in Fargo

March 19th, 2018 at 1:14 AM ^

I watched it too. They are athletic. So was Houston though but probably even more so. I'd say Michigan played their worst game in awhile last night against a good team but still held on. If the boys come to play and prepare hard this week, they will get the open looks like UNC got tonight and be ready to attack this A&M defense no doubt. Going to need one of their best all around performances though from the boys. Wagner and Rahk have to come out with killer instincts and get their heads out of their asses. You have to take into perspective that this game probably was the Aggies best game of the year and played out of their asses. Remember what conference that they come from and really aren't anything special. Nor did they do jack shit in that conference all year. So, if Michigan is hitting on all cylinders and focused, elite 8 it is boys!! Go Blue!!

Edit: If they want to go two big men, I'd just play two man offense with Wagner and Mathews pick and roll all night at the 4 and 5 positions. Tired them out or get them in foul trouble on the perimeter chasing the quick Mo and Chuck around while they try to hustle back to the rim to protect the drives. No way those two bigs can play with Mo and Chuck.

JamieH

March 18th, 2018 at 9:36 PM ^

I mean, we shot like crap in the first round. Just pointing out that if the team plays up to potential, the field has been thinned out.

As for those afraid of Kentucky, they have beaten exactly one top 25 team since the beginning of February, and no one from the top 10. So yeah, they have racked up a string of wins, but not exactly against the best of teams.

seksdesk

March 18th, 2018 at 9:46 PM ^

This is a bright lights, big city team and LA is the perfect setting for the camera muggers like Poole and Moe to help with a break-out game on offense.

(At least that's what I'm writing over and over on my wall with lipstick.)

Ajcoss

March 18th, 2018 at 9:58 PM ^

I thought at beginning of this thing, UM plays well (like they did Nebraska/Msu/Purdue in BTT, they could beat any team. UNC goes down is great, but UM simply is all about them. Gotta play better to reach Final 4. Gotta get Mo & MAAR going.

gobluemizzou

March 18th, 2018 at 10:06 PM ^

Thanks for playing.  Not.  How did UVA lose to this garbage?  Wouldn't want to win more than one game or anything, good lord.  Just one win is fine for us!  "We're so cool, look at us", and then you do this?

LSAClassOf2000

March 18th, 2018 at 10:22 PM ^

I wouldn't be THAT hard on UMBC.

They played Kansas State close for much of that game and they did knock off a #1 seed - the #1 overall, in  fact. That is a story in itself, and even though it was a tragically short run, they did make certain their name would hang around in tournament lore. Not too shabby, even if that's all you do, for a team that had no real expectations before this past weekend. 

JamieH

March 19th, 2018 at 12:40 AM ^

You can lose to anyone. I'd still rather play the teams lower on KenPom's list than higher. If you look at his ratings, and yes, some of this is because they are updated, 10 of the sweet 16 teams are in his top 16. We are actually only the 6th best team left at #10. However, #1, #3, #4, and #9 are all on the other side of the bracket, and #4 (Purdue) suffered a massive injury. 

Only #7 (Gonzaga) is on our side of the bracket.

Everyone else is outside of the top 10.