BR sets 2000-1 odds against UMich going undefeated. How much would you wager?

Submitted by JHumich on August 11th, 2017 at 9:43 PM
BR's Kerry Miller threw out that ridiculous number less than 2 full days after colleague Mike Felder gave 11-1 as our most likely record. If I could actually get someone to give me those odds, I'd love to put $100 on it. How much would you?



August 11th, 2017 at 10:10 PM ^

A few hundred for fun.

Take the data here and you're at about 60:1 odds for us to go 12-0 (with an expected record of 9-3). Even at 50/50 for the 3 games after that you're around ~500:1 of going 15-0 and your odds of winning a B1G championship would be better than 50/50 for a 12-0 M team that already beat WI at WI. 


August 12th, 2017 at 9:21 PM ^

I am not at all a betting man, so I may be wrong. But wasn't Leicester City a 5000 to 1 shot to win the EPL a couple years ago? And that was pretty much like the preseason #110 team going undefeated. So my first thought is, 2000-1 doesn't seem right for the #30 team. 

But like I said, I don't really follow this stuff at all so I don't know. Nothing to see here. Carry on.


August 12th, 2017 at 9:03 AM ^

So that's one in the last 500 FBS team-seasons.

I know the sample size is too low for that to mean much of anything but by itself it certainly doesn't establish 2000:1 as reasonable.


August 11th, 2017 at 11:45 PM ^

Probably $'s likely a 4-game bet...the other 9 are relatively certain.  Why not, especially with a young team that has a lot of upside.   2000-1 is very high.


August 12th, 2017 at 11:24 AM ^

This guy clearly doesn't know how probability works.  Even if you are conservative, the odds of Michigan going undefeated are closer to 1 in 200 if you work it out according to likelihood of winning each game.