Bold, Overtly Optimistic Prediction: BCS?

Submitted by SwordDancer710 on October 18th, 2009 at 12:08 AM

Let's say this scenario plays out:

1) Iowa either runs the table or only loses to OSU
2) Michigan runs the table, capping the season with a close win over OSU
3) Penn State loses to us and runs the table after
4) OSU wins all their other games except maybe Iowa

The Big Ten standings would be:

1. Iowa (8-0 or 7-1)
2. Michigan (6-2, tiebreaker over Penn State)
3. Penn State (6-2)
4/5. OSU (5-3 or 4-4)
5/4. MSU (5-3, assuming they win out except for Iowa and PSU)

Would that be enough to get us a 2nd BCS berth? Again, this is very optimistic, but you have to admit that it's not unreasonable. Thoughts?

Comments

redwings8831

October 18th, 2009 at 12:17 AM ^

I doubt it. Iowa would go to the Rose but I don't think we would be high enough to get the conference a second berth. But you never know. And I think the only reason we got two bids in 07, is OSU was in the title game and the Rose took Illinois (at 9-3) to keep the Big 10/Pac 10 matchup. But then again, if Iowa is undefeated they could get a title game berth and then we would probably get the Rose.

bighousechris

October 18th, 2009 at 12:27 AM ^

Bold? Check.
Overtly optimistic? Check

don't get me me wrong, I hope this happens, but I'd rather see us go to a bowl game that is deserved and have a good shot to win. If by some stroke of pure luck we end up in a BCS bowl, I don't see the season ending on a very positive note.

jtmc33

October 18th, 2009 at 12:31 AM ^

I think Boise St. and TCU are going to take away two BCS spots from 10-2 teams... one probably from the Big 10.

SEC - Florida and Bama
Big 12 - Texas
ACC - one of GT, Miami, or VT
Big East - Only one, probably CInci
Pac 10- Possibly two this year, USC and Oregon (even if 10-2)
BIg 10 - Iowa or OSU
Non-BCS - Boise St. and TCU

So, even if the SEC is the only conference with a sure 2 teams, Boise and TCU leaves room for only one more 10-2 team. I doubt the Big 10 would get it

Jeff

October 18th, 2009 at 12:43 AM ^

I can't think of any BCS conference teams that went 10-2 or better and didn't make the BCS unless their conference already had 2 teams in.

It is totally overly optimistic, but if Michigan goes 10-2 I would be shocked if they didn't make it into the BCS.

The SEC is going to get 2 bids, there will almost certainly be 1 non-BCS school that makes it, the Big 12 will probably get 2 bids (but not as guaranteed as the past few years). The Big East will not get a second bid. So the final bid will be fought over by the Pac-10, ACC and Big 10.

Michigan draws fans and ratings, look at how highly rated the Capital One Bowl was. If they're eligible, and winning 6 games in a row including over Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State will get them into the top 14 of the BCS, some BCS bowl will pick us.

maxr

October 18th, 2009 at 10:55 AM ^

If Michigan goes 10-2 I will be shocked, period. I don't mean to rain on any parades, but how easily we seem to forget 3-9. At the start of the season, all I wanted was 6-7 wins and some middling bowl game. Baby steps. Let's become bowl eligible before thinking of BCS bowls.

StephenRKass

October 18th, 2009 at 12:55 AM ^

What are you smoking?

After all I've seen, I could even see Michigan running the table, and beat everyone remaining. However, I still think they lose one more . . . btw PSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.

But let's deal with the "what if" scenario. Even if UM won the rest of the way, I still think they don't belong in a BCS bowl. Worse, I'm not sure they'd be competitive in a BCS bowl.

Next year is soon enough.

Tacopants

October 18th, 2009 at 1:27 AM ^

If we win out and Notre Dame wins out as well. I don't think that will happen, and if we do indeed go 10-2, I really wouldn't want us to make a BCS game just to get blown out by Alabama.

MaizeyBlue

October 18th, 2009 at 1:29 AM ^

Any one worried about MSU? They have Iowa at home in a night game next week, if they win that game they are in the drivers seat. They don't play ohio and also have penn st at home and two very winnable road games: Purdue and Minnesota.

Sextus Empiricus

October 18th, 2009 at 1:35 AM ^

I don't think it's likely but if Boise pushes Mich out, that would be a crime. Boise has a qualit (?) win over Oregon (who laid a big fat egg on their blue carpet) and that is it. Their marginal win over Tulsa compared to Oklahoma's 45-0 win speaks volumes.

I enjoyed them beating Oklahoma in the BCS bowl as much as the next person, but you have to play more quality teams to earn a BCS. I would love to see a Mich 1:1 with Boise. They are a great team, but a 10-2 Mich team trumps a 12-0 Boise this year IMO.

TIMMMAAY

October 18th, 2009 at 8:06 PM ^

It's also wrong. Wrong in the sense that schedule strength and quality of wins/losses doesn't play a large enough roll in determining team rankings. A system similar to NCAA basketball would be beneficial in that regard.

KBLOW

October 18th, 2009 at 2:37 AM ^

Exactly. It's fun to speculate and, in part, it's stuff like this that the board exists, but enjoy what we've done already.

We won three games last year. We're a very young, inexperienced team with areas of weakness and lack of depth that have and will cost us games. The team is still learning an offensive and defensive system with a freshman QB and backup. If a BCS bowl happens it happens, but going to any bowl at all will be pretty good for this team. Be patient. Our time will come and when it does it will be great! But don't get expectations so high for a possible (and unlikely) future this season that you don't appreciate what RR is carefully building.

Tater

October 18th, 2009 at 6:01 AM ^

The OP is even more optimistic than I am. I thought I was pushing the envelope a bit by sticking with 9-3. A lot of people criticized playing another cupcake, but the result certainly has put smiles on a lot of faces today.

wildbackdunesman

October 18th, 2009 at 8:29 AM ^

To be honest, I think it would serve the BigTen well to only get 1 BCS bowl, instead of 2.

Sure the conference will miss out on some money now, but why bump all of the other teams up a bowl where they will face off against a better opponent when we are already down.

We are getting ripped for only winning 1 bowl last year, but imagine if we only had 1 BCS bowl last year...we could have had a winning record during the bowl season...as everyone but PSU would have been bumped down a bowl.

Nickel

October 18th, 2009 at 9:06 AM ^

If there's ever a year where the Big 10 does NOT deserve to get two BCS teams it would be this one. The conference just isn't very good right now.

Having said that, I think a 10-2 Michigan would stand a good shot of getting a BCS game. The bowls pick teams who will sell tickets, not necessarily produce a great matchup and I have a feeling Michigan fans would travel in droves to a BCS game after a 3-9 season.

NJWolverine

October 18th, 2009 at 10:07 AM ^

But the Big Ten may even be worse than expected now. A perfect storm of mediocrity has hit the conference, similar to the 9-4 ACC/Big East "championship" teams. When everyone is flawed, the "champion" is usually a 2-3 loss team who won't compete against the best. I'm afraid that's what we're seeing in the Big Ten. Make no mistake, Iowa to the Rose would set the Big Ten back another couple of years in terms of gaining respect. They should have lost to Northern Iowa and almost lost to Arkansas St. They beat an offensively vulnerable Penn State team, their fraudulent non-conference schedule and all, that has beaten no one right now. They should have lost to us but for the unforced, youthful turnovers. Should they play USC or even Oregon for that matter, they will probably lose by 2-3 TDs, at least.

The conference is a mess right now. Realistically, the conference probably doesn't deserve a single BCS invitation. We're talking about Purdue almost beating Oregon, but keep in mind that was when Oregon was reeling from week 1 and the Blount scandal. They're a much different team now. Also do not forget that Purdue lost at home to Northern Illinois. Now they beat OSU at home, pretty convincingly I might add. OSU plays extremely hard against a vulnerable USC team with a freshman QB in his first road game and loses. From MSU losing to Central Michigan at home, Wisconsin almost losing to Fresno, Minnesota losing convincingly to a fraudulent Cal, Illinois getting blown out by Missouri and Indiana getting blown out by lowly Virginia, there are no marquee wins and several bad losses for the conference. In fact, Michigan's home victory against ND may serve as the best non-conference victory by the conference.

If OSU's offense continues to struggle, and that may well be the case because they don't have athletes around Pryor, they'll probably lose 2 more games. Overrated Iowa might well lose 2 more games and I think we'll beat PSU. Problem is, Iowa will still go to the Rose by virtue of tiebreaks, which is a shame.

Michigan may emerge as a lone bright spot in an otherwise dark conference. The good news is that Michigan should be a year ahead of schedule and make a BCS game next year.

CrankThatDonovan

October 18th, 2009 at 11:28 AM ^

What I see in this post is a lot of speculation and little actual content. You say Iowa sucks for playing close games against Northern Iowa and Arkansas State, yet forgive Oregon for losing to Boise State and almost losing to Purdue, a middling Big Ten team, at home. Talk about a contradiction.

The fact is, Iowa is 7-0. If Iowa goes 12-0, it is totally irrational to suggest that they do not "deserve" a Rose Bowl berth. The Big Ten champion goes to the Rose Bowl. They are not any less deserving than any other Big Ten champions of the past. Also, predicting the future by saying Oregon and USC will beat Iowa by several touchdowns is cute, really, but you cannot use made-up scenarios to predict what should and should not happen in the college football world.

Also, if Iowa is so fraudulent but Michigan is such an underrated sleeping giant, then why is Iowa sitting pretty in first place while Michigan has two losses in the conference to Michigan State and, aw shit, Iowa? Stop being such a homer

Don

October 18th, 2009 at 10:42 AM ^

Jesus, we haven't even played half of our conference schedule. This is squarely in the realm of mental masturbation. If you feel the need, have at it, but close the door and clean up after yourself.