The quote is from Bill C's podcast Podcast Ain't Played Nobody about MSU's win Saturday against PSU.
The quote is mostly related to MSU's turnover luck. Michigan State fumbled the ball 4 times and recovered them all. PSU had a potential pick on the game just dropped by a CB. According to Bill, when taking into account the amount of fumbles and batted balls PSU's defense had, MSU was expected to turn the ball over 5.5 times against PSU. They turned it over once. Each turnover is worth around 5 points, so turnover luck gained MSU around 20-21 points.
The following link is a Bill C post detailing a bunch of advanced stats box score numbers on all the games from this weekend (link). Some notables from the link:
- Another Bill C quote on MSU: "the Spartans enjoyed about a 20- to 21-point boost thanks to turnovers luck... I swear, that happens every single time Sparty plays PSU, Michigan, or Ohio State, doesn’t it..."
- MSU's post game win expectancy was 26%.
- OSU's post game win expectancy was 66%.
- Michigan's post game win expectancy was 86%.
- Wisconsin had one of the best 5 points per scoring opportunity margins this week. Basically this means advanced numbers say Michigan should have scored more based on the amount of scoring opportunities we had but we didn't because we failed to finish drives. So not only were we not lucky, based on the numbers this game should have been an even bigger blowout.