Bill Connelly breaks down why this game isn't a walk for Michigan

Submitted by ak47 on November 19th, 2018 at 2:58 PM

People have been talking on this board like OSU is a 7-5 team that will only beat Michigan if Michigan spectacularly fails. The reality is OSU is a top 10 team to S&P including a top 5 offense and despite their big play problems are still a top 40 defense. If our big plays aren't turning into TD's and instead turn into field goals we are losing this game.  This game is a 55-60% lean, it is by no means one over matched team just hoping to keep it close like Michigan was trying last year.  This is going to be a tough game that is going to need Michigan to play its best game of the year to win.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/11/19/18101061/ohio-state-michigan-game-2018-preview-analysis

Comments

charblue.

November 19th, 2018 at 7:46 PM ^

Exactly. As if going to Columbus and winning is second nature. We haven't won there since the turn of the century. So, the contention of an easy win belies optimism based on the law of averages. Beat their ass. We have a better team. And that's the feeling of the fan base, and that's where confidence lies.

ScooterTooter

November 19th, 2018 at 3:01 PM ^

Does or did anyone think this was going to be a walk? 

Ohio State has more talent than anyone in the conference. Its at their place. They still have everything to play for. Its going to be a close game. 

Despite that, Michigan should still win as they are the better overall team.

ak47

November 19th, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^

Just reading the way people are talking about this game it feels like people think OSU is a fringe top 25 team at best that should have 3 or 4 losses. The reality is they are a top 10 team with a legitimately elite offense. It would barely register as an upset in reality and people are talking on here like only bad juju and history can stop this team and not that OSU is actually pretty good.

raleighwood

November 19th, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^

Well, they SHOULD have 3-4 losses.  Purdue hammered them, PSU got Franklin'd and Maryland imploded this past weekend.  That's three losses.  The MSU game was close until the official Sparty No! was issued.

All of the being said, there's absolutely no reason to be over-confident going into the game this weekend.  It's fairly apparent that Michigan has the better (or at least more consistent) team at this point.  However, turnovers, bad calls, trick plays, bad weather, blown coverages, missed assignments....could all come into play this game.

 

Communist Football

November 19th, 2018 at 4:09 PM ^

I think Bill Connelly is exactly right. The two big weaknesses of Michigan are (1) its inability to win on obvious rushing plays against good defenses; and (2) its vulnerability to the quick, short passing game. Ohio State's defense is bad against explosive offenses and its offense is great at the quick short passing game.

Squash34

November 20th, 2018 at 12:00 AM ^

Bluegoinggrey is spot on. They hammered Wisconsin and PSU when they had to account for Shea. The score didn't show it as much verse MSU, but they wore them down too, largely because they had to account for the QB pulling on read option. 

Verse Rutgers and Indiana, they knew Michigan was going to still be run heavy but not really use the qb. That will not be the case this week. Osy will get worn down. They will also be hit with several RPO, which will be used as the third option with the read option game. Which is also something they stopped running as much verse the two recent weaker opponents. 

bdneely4

November 19th, 2018 at 10:05 PM ^

I live in Ohio and all the annoying fans that have acted like everything OSU is gold are the same ones who have completely given up on this team and say we are going to beat them. They are also saying that Urban will probably leave after this year and they are fine with that. What a freaking spoiled fan base. I want to beat them so bad on Saturday by I just can’t shake the BPONE. 

mGrowOld

November 19th, 2018 at 3:04 PM ^

I want to meet the guy who looks at a game between two teams where one team hasnt won on the road since Christ was a kid and says "this will be easy".

Cause I'm just SURE I've got some real estate that moron needs to buy.

mitchewr

November 19th, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^

LOL. For real. I don't think I've been this nervous for a game in a LONG time.

My head says that Michigan should win, as we appear to be the more complete team on paper.

My heart, however, remains a bruised, battered, and horrendously scarred shadow of its former self after seeing us fall short again, and again, and again in this game.

I want to believe but I'm afraid....someone lead me to the light!

ih8losing

November 19th, 2018 at 6:54 PM ^

I’ll join you in feeling the exact same way. I was positively confident (I’m not typically when Michigan has a big game) in 2015 and we got hammered. Again last year and ... so I’m hopeful but not st all confident. We’ve seen what happens against OSU too many times - big plays, turnovers, refereeing, etc. 

Mike Damone

November 19th, 2018 at 3:05 PM ^

Here's a quicker analysis:

"It's Michigan versus Ohio State.  Going to be a nasty and bloody war, with (as Keith Jackson once said) the "big uglies buttin heads".  Strap in!"

Go Blue!!!