Bill C., the man behind the famed S&P+, tweeted out yesterday that his team statistical profiles are now live. It gives a bunch of advanced stats like post-game win expectancy, performance percentiles, and more to look at for each team on a week to week basis, plus a whole lotta advanced stats. I'll link the page below and also list some interesting notes in the OP.
- Our post-game win expectancy against NW was 81%. That means if this game were played 100 times with the same statistical profile for each team, Michigan would win 81% of the time. This indicates the game was not as close as the final score from a box score perspective. *Note that this isn't opponent adjusted, so whether it's Michigan vs NW or Bama vs UTEP this 81% would hold true. The 81% is based purely on the box score, nothing to do with the teams playing.
- This was our first non 100% post game win expectancy since ND, which was 59%.
- Michigan's overall performance this past week against NW graded out in the 70th percentile, meaning that when adjusted for opponent and put on a Bell curve, we performed in the 70th percentile. This was our worst performance of the year, with SMU at 75%, ND at 86% and Western maxing out at 93%.
- Offensively we had our second worst performance at 69%, only behind ND at 32%. The other 3 games were all between 77% and 85%.
- Defensively we had our worst performance at 77%, with the other 4 games between 83% and 94%.
Non Michigan notes:
- MSU has not had a post game win expectancy of 100% this year. They maxed at 95% against Indiana had their lowest was 52% against ASU.
- Their lowest overall performance percentile was 49% against CMU and the highest was 95% against Indiana.
- Their lowest offensive percentile was 29% against ASU and their highest was 93% against Indiana.
- Their lowest defensive percentile was 48% against Utah State and the highest was 89% against Indiana.
- OSU has had 3 post game win expectancy's of 100%, while TCU was 62% and PSU was 51%.
- Their lowest overall performance percentile was 74% against TCU and the highest was 91% against Tulane.
- Their lowest offensive percentile was 74% against TCU and their highest was 95% against Tulane.
- Their lowest defensive percentile was 26% against TCU and the highest was 94% against Rutgers. Their percentile against PSU was 55 and against Oregon St. was 69.
Keep in mind that preseason projections are still part of S&P+ until about week 7, with the percent they make up decreasing each week. So things like OSU's defense being a top 25 unit despite 3 bad performances are likely held up by preseason where they were projected to be 8th.
Once again if you have some time go check out the spreadsheet. It has a ton more info with individual player and scenario based ratings. You can use this glossary to help explain what you don't understand.