Big Ten Week Thirteen Lines/Over Under Predictions

Submitted by justingoblue on November 20th, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Week thirteen lines and over/unders are up and that means MGoBlog's 238947324th best weekly post is back.

Recap (game, who covered, by how much, over/under, by how much):

Minnesota @ Nebraska: Nebraska (5) under (-1.5)
Indiana @ Penn State: Penn State (7) over (+11.5)
Purdue @ Illinois: Illinois (4) under (-13.5)
Northwestern @ MSU: Northwestern (3.5) under (-1)
Ohio State @ Wisconsin: Ohio State (10) under (-17.5)

Notes: Northwestern and OSU both upset their opponents on the road. Michigan v. Iowa wasn't up for the last post, but M covered by eight after being favored by seventeen (damn that feels good to write).

If you picked last week, see how you did here.

Week Thirteen (line listed is for the home team):

Illinois @ Northwestern (-19, +/-50.5)
Nebraska @ Iowa (+14.5, +/-53)
Michigan State @ Minnesota (+8.5, +/-38)
Indiana @ Purdue (-5.5, +/-62.5)
Michigan @ Ohio (-3.5, +/-54.5)
Wisconsin @ Penn State (-2.5, +/-45)

Only a couple big spreads this week, with 3.5 rivalry games scheduled. Northwestern could very well cover; there's been some bad blood between those teams recently and the WIldcats can certainly pile up points on Illinois if they want to. My totally (un)homer pick is for Michigan to upset OSU on the road, and I'll take PSU again. Any coach that runs up the gut with eighteen seconds left and no timeouts probably isn't capable of beating a decent team on the road. What say you, MGoBoard?


Auburn @ Alabama (-31.5, +/-46)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia (-13, +/-64.5)
Virginia @ Virginia Tech (-10.5, +/-49.5)
Oregon @ Oregon State (+9.5, +/-64.5)
Arizona State @ Arizona (-3, +/-68.5)

Florida v. FSU and ND v. USC are both OFF at the moment, although FSU -7 is getting action, as is USC +6.



November 20th, 2012 at 1:52 PM ^

llinois @ Northwestern (-19, +/-50.5) - I would have to say with some confidence that I think this is a game which Northwestern can win easily and convincingly. Illinois is close to the bottom in most defensive categories, and if the Wildcats unleash the option on the third-worst rushing defense in the conference, things get ugly in a hurry. Northwestern and the over in a 42-10-ish peformance.

Nebraska @ Iowa (+14.5, +/-53) - Even though Ferentz has pulled off some odd upsets at Kinnick in the past, it is doubtful that this is among them. The Hawkeyes are simply not good on either side of the ball, and Nebraska has a very diverse rushing attack that the numbers say the Hawkeyes cannot handle. That being said, Nebraska's defense isn't elite - the Hawkeys may get through now and again. Nebraska and the over in a 40-14 showing.

Michigan State @ Minnesota (+8.5, +/-38) - The battle of the 5-6 and 6-5 team should be a mildly interesting game, I think. Minnesota is statistically decent at defending the pass, so I foresee a game in which the Spartans try to unleash Bell and with some success - some being the operative word, given MSU's offensive woes. A sluggish game - Michigan State and the under - 24-10. Everybody goes to a bowl here.

Indiana @ Purdue (-5.5, +/-62.5) - Yeah, shootout, and it will be close. Indiana has the great passing offense and terrible rushing game, and Purdue has a slightly less effective passing game and better rushing attack, but not by a whole lot. On defense, they are both a nightmare, giving up about 400 yards per game on average. Purdue in a close pyrrhic victory and the over - 42-35 or so, I think.

Wisconsin @ Penn State (-2.5, +/-45) - Wisconsin doesn't need to play motivated, but coming off a heartbreaker to Ohio State, they will. Two decent defenses will pair up against two middling offenses from a production standpoint and make it an interesting game. Not much scoring here, but I will go with Wisconsin and its slightly better defense and the under - 24-17 is my guess.


November 20th, 2012 at 1:53 PM ^

Only one matters to me right now - Beat Ohio!

(Note to Justingoblue:  this is at least in the top 1 million best weekly posts on this blog.  238947324th is selling yourself short.)

Beat Ohio.


November 20th, 2012 at 2:19 PM ^

Ha, so much for my prediction that Michigan would run a vanilla gameplan before the OSU game. Oops!

Anyway, on to the fun this week:

Northwestern, over - Illinois has been doing better, but against equally inept teams like Purdue and Minnesota. Northwestern rolls in their rivalry game 42-10.

Nebraska, over - Nebraska isn't going to let Iowa hang around and jeopardize their trip to Indy. Iowa has nothing to play for except for corn dominance. Nebraska wins big, 52-14.

MSU, under - With a bowl game in the balance, MSU finally puts together a solid Big Ten game. Minnesota's not terrible defensively, which keeps the score low, but MSU still rings up a solid 17-7 win.

Indiana, under - Purdue's chilling around with a coach that knows he's out the door, and Indiana is building for the future. This game means nothing to anyone, not even the fans of the respective schools. Indiana wins a sloppy game 28-17.

Penn State, over - I think there will be a fair number of points scored here, and I like PSU to win by a decent margin, though certainly not a blowout. Wisconsin stands to gain nothing from this game, as they are either in the Rose Bowl or the Outback. PSU also stands to gain nothing, but they also have no reason to hold back in the slightest. PSU honors Mauti with a 31-24 win.

OSU, under - I hate to pick against the good guys, but I sadly don't see this game ending well. Meyer has done a good job keeping everyone focused on winning one game at a time. However, I feel he's got something up his sleeve for Saturday, while I fear Borges played his hand on senior day. Like last year, OSU breaks tendencies to hit some big plays, and Gardner learns what real Big Ten football games are like. OSU wins 27-21, and we're one step closer to the Mayans being right.


November 20th, 2012 at 3:05 PM ^

5-5 again last week, 41-23 overall



Illinois @ Northwestern (-19, +/-50.5) - Northwestern, Over
Nebraska @ Iowa (+14.5, +/-53) - Nebraska, under
Michigan State @ Minnesota (+8.5, +/-38) - Minnesota, over
Indiana @ Purdue (-5.5, +/-62.5) - Indiana, over
Michigan @ Ohio (-3.5, +/-54.5) - Ohio State, over
Wisconsin @ Penn State (-2.5, +/-45) - Penn State, under

Auburn @ Alabama (-31.5, +/-46) - Bama, over
Georgia Tech @ Georgia (-13, +/-64.5) - Georgia, under
Virginia @ Virginia Tech (-10.5, +/-49.5) - VaTech, under
Oregon @ Oregon State (+9.5, +/-64.5) - Oregon, under
Arizona State @ Arizona (-3, +/-68.5) - Arizona, under



November 20th, 2012 at 3:23 PM ^

Vegas is roughly predicting the following final scores:

Northwestern 35, Illinois 16 

Nebraska 34, Iowa 19

Michigan State 23, Minnesota 15

Purdue 34, Indiana 28 


Penn State 24, Wisconsin 21

I'll take Northwestern (over), Nebraska (over), Minnesota (under), Indiana (under), THE GOOD GUYS (under), and Wisconsin (under).