Big Ten Week Six Lines

Submitted by justingoblue on October 1st, 2012 at 4:31 PM

With conference season finally in full swing this week (10/12 playing, no OOC games), and the Big Ten looking wide open, let's take a look at who is favored and by how much. All lines are from Caesars.

Michigan State v. Indiana (+16)
Illinois v. Wisconsin (-14)
Nebraska v. Ohio (-4)
Northwestern v. Penn State (-3.5)
Michigan v. Purdue (+3)
Iowa and Minnesota have byes.

Vegas has Michigan playing the closest game this weekend, with Wisconsin and Michigan State expected to win easily. Is Purdue's DL that good/is Denard going to have another five turnovers? Can State put together a seventeen point win against an IU defense allowing twenty-seven points per game? Can Ohio pull off its second victory over ranked Legends teams in consecutive weeks, and by more than a field goal?

I'll take my own quiz: No, no, M covers. Yes. Yes, I don't know (Lincoln is still a mystery).





October 1st, 2012 at 5:19 PM ^

If he could't find a scheme to stop UAB, I don't think he's going to find one for Nebraska.  While they contained Bell last week, they were also torched through the air, and if MSU receivers could catch anything, MSU wins that game. 


October 1st, 2012 at 8:27 PM ^

Although the juxtaposition of those two phrases seems a bit off, I bet you get what he meant. 

It was either, "Despite MSU receivers not being able to catch anything (much), OSU was torched through the air" or "OSU was torched through the air, and if the MSU receivers hadn't dropped so many balls, it would have been even worse, or they may have won."


October 1st, 2012 at 4:40 PM ^

I have to think the Wiscy +14 bet would be hard to pass on. IL is just a tire fire right now. The NW/PSU game should be fun to watch. I'll be hard pressed to get the UM/PU game in as I have to work a wedding (with my wife, who is the planner) @ 3 PM CDT.

EDIT: I see I'm screwed with a 3 PM CDT start. Damn it.


October 1st, 2012 at 4:47 PM ^

Wisconsin's offense looked awful in their first three games, but it finally picked up some steam last weekend in Lincoln. Illinois gave up 52 points to Louisiana Tech and 35 points to a subpar Penn State offense. They are quickly becoming the new Indiana. This is the first time all year I feel comfortable taking Wisconsin to cover.


October 1st, 2012 at 5:13 PM ^

Wisconsin's offense only looked good because Nebraska turned the ball over so much in the first half. They took advantage of those turnovers, and then they got annihilated in the second half by a (probably) bad Nebraska D. One drive in the third quarter and then nothing.

Wisconsin and MSU have no business being given +14 or better over anyone. Their offenses look completely terrible and will have a hard time winning games big. Even against weaker opponents.


October 1st, 2012 at 4:41 PM ^

What's the O/U for the Ohio/Neb game?  I'm pretty sure the over is a good bet no matter what it is.  Neither defense has shown an ability to stop an offense with even the slighest pulse.


October 1st, 2012 at 4:49 PM ^

Michigan State v. Indiana (+16) - Take Indiana.  I'm not convinced MSU should be +16 on anyone right now
Illinois v. Wisconsin (-14) - Wisky should roll them
Nebraska v. Ohio (-4) - Take Ohio.  Nebraska can't perform up to par away from Lincoln, and will probably get steam-rolled
Northwestern v. Penn State (-3.5) - I'd take Penn State.  Northwestern's opponents are something like 1-14, collectively.  Their success is deceiving.
Michigan v. Purdue (+3) - I gotta go with the homer pick and take Michigan.  We win by 14.


October 1st, 2012 at 6:05 PM ^

Northwestern's opponents are 5-11 excluding FCS South Dakota, with 4 of those losses being games against Northwestern. Not saying their success isn't deceiving, but they are worthy of being ranked at this point with an undefeated record. Penn State on the other hand has wins over Navy, Temple, and Illinois, all of which are damn awful.


October 1st, 2012 at 5:03 PM ^

I'm the exact opposite, because A, it's an after bye week game and we have Illinois the next week. Usually trap games are mediocre opponents sandwiched between two tough opponents or right after a tough game (see Air Force)

And B, Purdue gave up 41 points and 534 yards of offense to Marshall. While we may still have some issues on Offense, I think we should be able to move the ball very well against them. And in a matchup of which defense is better, I'll take ours


October 1st, 2012 at 6:45 PM ^

I could only find half a good reply to your question. First, Dantonio is 4-4 in career post-bye week wins. He's 2-1 as MSU's head coach, but it should be noted that one of those wins was 2010 Purdue, which went 4-8 (2-6), and the game was close (35-31 in EL). Other than that, he got beaten pretty soundly by PSU in 2008 and won the Paul Bunyon last year, obviously.

I don't have any stats on Hoke, as the diary Hart20 wrote (that's where these numbers are from) was catered to the MSU game last year when you were coming off a bye and we weren't. I will say that I think more than normal bye week stuff will have to go wrong for M to be in serious danger of losing, but I'm basing that mostly off the Purdue game last year.


October 1st, 2012 at 9:03 PM ^

I think Purdue is vastly improved from last year, and are IMO the favorites for the leaders division, which is how i felt before the season started as well

At Ball State, i could only find his last two seasons, and he was 2-0 with wins vs Northern Illinois and Toledo

Hoke ,at SDSU, was 0-2 after Bye weeks, with losses @BYU and at home to BYU. 



October 1st, 2012 at 10:27 PM ^

but I think Ohio beats them head to head and in conference record, and Wisconsin might be 50/50 to do the same. I've seen enough to tell that they're improved, but last year was just brutal in Ann Arbor. I'm also not sold on their resume, which consists of beating up on Eastern Kentucky and EMU, losing a close one to ND (while giving up double the points M did with -3 TOM, ND was -1 against Purdue) and giving up 41 to Marshall. I don't feel like im being homerish in saying that M should do just fine with their defense, and I don't know if their offense could go shot-for-shot, but I'd guess no.

Also, on Hoke/Dantonio bye week stuff, there was some good discussion in that diary about using the spread instead of straight up results. At BSU, SDSU, Cincinnati and the first couple years in EL, there is a good chance those teams were underdogs coming off the bye week. It doesn't seem like anyone took the time to go back and look at that, but it's an interesting point anyway.


October 1st, 2012 at 5:02 PM ^

I'm not sold on Purdue's defense.

Eastern Michigan did this rushing the ball against Purdue -

38 Carries, 169 Yards, 4.4 AVG

By comparison, here's the team rushing line from EMU's game versus Michigan State -

29 Carries, 46 Yards, 1.6 AVG

I think the Purdue defensive hype came from the Notre Dame game when everyone was looking.  I still think Notre Dame's offense is that bad


October 1st, 2012 at 8:06 PM ^

I'm not sold on Purdue either. I think they got ND at a good time: just getting back from Ireland (major jet lag) and right before MSU and Michigan. I don't for a minute think that ND is a great team - they overlooked Purdue and it almost cost them a game.

I peg this game as a Michigan statement game. The offense starts clicking - Fitz, Denard and the WR's finally have a complete game. Michigan by two scores.


October 1st, 2012 at 5:00 PM ^

MSU over Indy but I think Indy makes it close in the 1st half but State pulls away.

Illinois gets killed by Wisconsin.

I actually have Penn State beating NW. After Indiana's display offensively against NW this past weekend especially almost coming back and beating them I say McGloin and PSU pull the upset and win by two TDs.

Nebraska beats OSU in a close one in Cbus but I see Martinez lighting up OSU's secondary in the 2nd half.

Michigan gets its first conference road win on the road vs Purdue. Purdue except for ND has played nobody strong and our defense will pressure TerBush all game long. Purdue will prove their worth in Leaders this Saturday. And they will fail.


October 1st, 2012 at 5:10 PM ^

I'm really curious about this Purdue defense.  On the one hand, they shut down Notre Dame's offense.  On the other hand, so has everyone else but Navy.


October 1st, 2012 at 5:46 PM ^

MSU vs. Indiana - I look at Indiana's 510 yards of total offense per game compared to who they have played to date and think that State's defense, running on all cyclinders, could make a considerable dent in this average. The problem is that MSU's defense hasn't done this, and their offense gets bogged down if you can stop Bell. I would take Indiana here. 

Illinois vs. Wisconsin - that HB pass was just about the only thing that worked for Illinois on Saturday. It certainly wasn't Scheelhaase. Wisconsin, and by a comfortable margin. 

Nebraska vs. Ohio - I would take Ohio here, but by not much over this margina, and primarily because I think Braxton  Miller can carry them enough to cover because the Nebraska defense seems to give up yardage in chunks, but then so do the Buckeyes and that awful run defense. The Buckeyes may not have Jordan Hall though, which probably would make me more comfortable picking them. 

Northwestern vs. Penn State - I must say that I was pleasantly surprised by how things seem to be coming together this year with talent that stayed at  Penn State, at least inasmuch as possible considering the situation. The defense looks good, and it seems like O'Brien has installed a reasonably effective budget version of the New England offense. I would take Penn State.

Michigan vs. Purdue - Michigan, of course, and I am not sold on Purdue as a complete team, although they seem better than most years recently. We win by a couple scores, I think. 



October 1st, 2012 at 6:05 PM ^

I just hope OSU wins again, we need them to take out our opponents in our division.  WIsconsin beating Nebraska would have been nice but, alas, it wasn't so.  OSU can make up for that. 

And Goddammit I hope we beat Purdue by more than 3 points.


October 1st, 2012 at 7:01 PM ^

As long as Borges isn't too predictable and doesn't insist we run right at Kewann Short the entire game we should be able to beat a 3 point spread. Like last week against ND beating them through the air is the key. Unlike last week I hope we actually try and test their DBs this time. Our defense alone should be enough to beat the spread as it's one of the best Purdue faces this year.

Wisconsin should roll over Illinois and easily beat the spread. Maybe even double it. They just lost a heartbreaker.

Nebraska I think might be able to upset Ohio. Not sure how I feel about this. Ohio hasn't shown itself to be any kind of offensive threat this year, and they're missing a couple RBs now, and has been extremely one dimensional. They're also used to facing an offense like Ohios, even though their defense has been suspect. I like Nebraskas offense as the difference maker in that game. Too many good running backs, plus Martinez.

I'm hoping Northwestern can upset Penn State on the road. PSU stomped Illinois on the road, but everybody else is doing that lately. Northwesterns versatile offense that just set a school record against Indiana (I know) might be the difference. Like most of the Wildcats games, I expect them to go up in the first half, squander a big lead, then Penn States kicker comes out and misses a game winner or 2, or 5.

Don't know why Sparty has such a big spread against Indiana. Both teams are bad. Sparty has a semblence of decent defense, and Indiana has a semblence of decent offense. They tagged Northwestern for more than Vandy and BC combined. On the road I'd expect Staee to continue to struggle, and the game to be closer than 16.


October 1st, 2012 at 7:56 PM ^

all on just one thread.

I think most Nebraska fans are figuring on a loss. Even Pelini's best D's have had trouble with dual threat qb's.

Agree that if Nebraska's offense plays up to their potential all 4 quarters, they can win. A high scoring game seems more likely than a defensive battle.



October 2nd, 2012 at 4:01 PM ^

Over/Unders for said games and my predictions:

MSU/IU 47.5 (under)

Ill/UW 47.0 (over)

Neb/OSU 58.0 (over)

NW/PSU 49.0 (under)

UM/Pur 57.5 (under)