Big Ten Week Seven Lines/Over Under Predictions

Submitted by justingoblue on October 9th, 2012 at 3:11 PM

To recap from last week, MSU (-16) failed to cover, beating IU by four at home. Wisconsin (-14) covered at Camp Randall over Illinois. Michigan (-3) beat the spread by a factor of about ten against Purdue, while Ohio (-4) did the same against Nebraska.

This weeks lines (from Caesars) and over/unders (covers.com):

Wisconsin @ Purdue (-2.5, 50)
Northwestern @ Minnesota (+3.5, 51)
Iowa @ Michigan State (-10, 41)
Ohio @ Indiana (+17, 60)
Illinois @ Michigan (-23.5, 49.5)
Nebraska and Penn State are off this week.

I'm somewhat surprised we're favored more heavily than Ohio. Their defense is not very good, but they should score basically at will against IU. We'll do very well against Illinois, I just don't know if I see 6.5 points of separation between the two games, even with IU playing at home. I also think the Northwestern spread is too close, I think they beat up Minnesota in Minneapolis. So, as always, how do you feel about this week?

Comments

swan flu

October 9th, 2012 at 5:36 PM ^

Perhaps they saw how abysmal our non-Denard running game was and extrapolated that to Wisconsin's strikingly Denardless running game.

I expect Purdue to load the box and force Stave to beat them.  I am not confident in either team winning and would stay very far away from betting on that game

snowcrash

October 9th, 2012 at 3:20 PM ^

I like Iowa and the under against MSU. Sparty's offense has struggled in every game, and took a long time to get going against the awful Eastern and Indiana defenses. Iowa's D has had good and bad games this year but I think they'll be up for this one.

Agree on OSU. Miller should be able to run away from IU's sketchy back 7, and Simon will disrupt a few IU drives singlehandedly.

gbdub

October 9th, 2012 at 3:20 PM ^

Purdue, NW, and Ohio will cover. The others will win but not cover.

I don't think we beat Illinois by more than 3 touchdowns. With Sparty next week, I'd suspect that if we take a big lead we either go into "don't get anyone hurt" shell mode or Gorgeous Al starts experimenting.

Needs

October 9th, 2012 at 3:25 PM ^

Yeah, I'll take Purdue. Wisconsin's win was at home last week and that game was close going into the 4th quarter against Illinois. They're not nearly as good on the road and I can see Purdue's defensive tackles just shutting down Wisconsin's running game.

 

Surprised that OSU's not getting more points, after Urban showed he has no issues with running up the score by leaving his starters in for a garbage time TD with 48 seconds left. The 60 point over looks attractive there as well.

unWavering

October 9th, 2012 at 3:30 PM ^

Apparently I should start betting.... I would have went 5 - 0 last week.

This week looks a bit tougher to me...

Wisconsin @ Purdue (-2.5, 50) - I'd take Wisconsin.  Neither team is very good, but I think Wisconsin is closer to being a good team than Purdue.

Northwestern @ Minnesota (+3.5, 51) - NWs offense should handle Minny.  Then again, Minny has Gray back, so they could be effective vs NW's D.  Gun to my head, I'd take Northwestern.

Iowa @ Michigan State (-10, 41) - Easy.  Take Iowa.  MSU should not be -10 on anyone right now.

Ohio @ Indiana (+17, 60) - OSU should blow them out of the water.

Illinois @ Michigan (-23.5, 49.5) - Fairly large spread, and we may turn off the gas after the 2nd quarter, but I'd take UM anyway.

spartanfan123

October 9th, 2012 at 3:30 PM ^

Wisconsin was at home last week i believe. Indiana line is probably lower by how well they played against MSU, and how well MSU played with Ohio State. Indiana's offense will give OSU's defense fits too. 

Wisconsin @ Purdue (-2.5, 50) - Wisc, Under
Northwestern @ Minnesota (+3.5, 51) - Northwestern, Over
Iowa @ Michigan State (-10, 41) - Iowa, Under
Ohio State @ Indiana (+17, 60) -  Indiana, Over
Illinois @ Michigan (-23.5, 49.5) - Michigan, Over

LSAClassOf2000

October 9th, 2012 at 3:44 PM ^

I would take Wisconsin only because I think their defense is probably capable of shutting down a few more drives than Purdue's might be. Neither of these teams is dressed to impress in conference play though, I woud say.

Northwestern to cover if for no other reason than their offense probably being something just a shade above Minnesota's level at the moment. Northwestern is averaging 32 points per game right now, but Minnesota is averaging 26 or so. I could see this one being relatively close for much of the game, oddly enough.

I'll take Iowa. Here you have two of the cellar-dwellers in total offense. This is a relatively close, low-scoring affair, I think.

Ohio outright. I don't think there's much that Indiana can throw out there that Ohio can't handle, although the Ohio defense, which is good for about 380 yards per game, is likely to let them slip through a few times, I bet.

Michigan by about that many. I could the score being Purdue-ish.

michgoblue

October 9th, 2012 at 3:50 PM ^

1. Wisconsin @ Purdue (-2.5, 50)

Take Wisco.  Whichever team emerges from this debacle of a game will do so with a 1-point win on a last second FG - neither is very good.
 

2.  Northwestern @ Minnesota (+3.5, 51)

Take Northwestern.  I just still can't believe that Minnesota is anything other than what they have been - a bad football team.

3.  Iowa @ Michigan State (-10, 41)

Take Iowa.  State will win, but it will be close.  They will be looking ahead to their super bowl next week, and Iowa will take an early lead.  State overcomes it, but wins by less than 10.  Also, State will run a vanilla offense to "save" things for us, which should suppress their scoring.

4.  Ohio @ Indiana (+17, 60)

Take OHIO - they will win by 40.  Miller looks scary good  in Meyer's offense, and while OHIO's D is suspect, its not like Indiana is going to score much on them.

5.  Illinois @ Michigan (-23.5, 49.5)

Take the good guys.  We all know that Denard puts up video game numbers against craptastic teams (not meant as an insult to Denard at all - just a fact that his athleticism against subpar teams dominates).  I expect a UMass-like game.  Scoring early and often, with the second string playing the entire 4th.

 

Tuebor

October 9th, 2012 at 4:05 PM ^

 

Wisconsin + over
I think Wisconsin is better than Purdue and both teams score in the upper 20s/lower 30s
 
Northwestern + over
The cardiac cats get back on track with a solid victory over and inferior opponent.
 
Iowa + under
I can see MSU winning this game 2-0 and I'm being serious.
 
Ohio + over
Ohio has no problem running up the score and could easily score 60 themselves
 
Illinois + under
Michigan wins by 21 and attempts less than 17 passes.  Fitz gets 100 yds rushing.

turtleboy

October 9th, 2012 at 5:23 PM ^

Indiana spread seems about right. Ohio is at times a run first team, while the rest of the time they're a run only team. Indiana is a pass first to pass only team. In Indiana it could be a minor shootout. 

Agree Northwestern easily clears the spread.

Michigan should easily beat the spread, too. Illinois lost by 31 at ASU, 28 at home to Louisiana Tech, 28 at home to Penn State, and 17 at Wisconsin. Michigan just won at Purdue by 31, we should win at home by roughly ALL the points.

Iowa is bipolar, and Sparty is schizophrenic. I have no idea which version of those teams be playing next Saturday. 

Paps

October 9th, 2012 at 6:45 PM ^

I feel like this is an easy cover by Michigan, as they will put up somewhere in the ballpark of 38-45 points will Illinois chipping in 10-17 (garbage time touchdowns of course) 

JonSnow54

October 9th, 2012 at 6:56 PM ^

In regards to the OP being surprised about our spread being so different from Ohio's, they really aren't if you take out the +/- 3 points they usually give to the home teams. On neutral fields, Ohio would be a 20 point favorite while we would be a 20.5 point favorite....not that this minutiae even matters, as I expect both teams to dominate and cover.

inthebluelot

October 9th, 2012 at 7:50 PM ^

Saturday
10/13/12 Iowa Hawkeyes (HC)
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI 12:00 p.m.
Saturday
10/20/12 at Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI Noon or 3:30
Saturday
10/27/12 at Wisconsin Badgers
Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI 3:30 p.m. ET
Saturday
11/03/12 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Saturday
11/10/12 --- Open Date --- ---
Saturday
11/17/12 Northwestern Wildcats
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Saturday
11/24/12 at Minnesota Golden Gophers
TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

Thetes a very real possibity that after we beat them, this team finishes out 1-3 and misses a bowl game. Aside from the last few seasons, this is their M.O.

Drew Sharp

October 9th, 2012 at 8:25 PM ^

If they lose to Iowa, they'll try to salvage the season against us. When they don't win that game, I can only imagine how low morale would be. At that point they will have a hard time getting motivated for Wisconsin and Nebraska. NW becomes a toss up at that point.

All that being said, I see them beating lowly Iowa, losing to us and @Wisconsin. They'll finish 8-4 and go to the Gator Bowl to get hammered by LSU.

Perkis-Size Me

October 9th, 2012 at 9:41 PM ^

Other than the Michigan and Ohio games, I think every game can go either way. If Denard is still in by the middle of the 3rd, it's just for stat-padding. I'd really like to see Bellomy and Rawls get a lot of snaps on Saturday.

holt1974

October 9th, 2012 at 9:42 PM ^

Purdue by a field goal and Under
NW covers and Over
Iowa wins 10-9. How does anyone bet Over in this one
Indiana loses but keeps it close and Over
Big Blue rolls to a similar score as last week with Russ throwing and running for a TD this week. Over!

....Cardale's tweet was what he turned in for his Creative Writing 101 final paper!

ijohnb

October 10th, 2012 at 12:57 PM ^

up by their dumpster fire of a first half last week was State actually finding a pretty nice groove in the second half.  Burbridge separated himself as easily their best receiver as a freshman, and the lack of Sims forced Maxwell into some throws he would not have thrown if his safety valve was still in there.  I think Maxwell go some confidence last week.  I think State will spread it out quite a bit more this week and dispose of Iowa relatively easily.  I think State will be primed for their trip to the Big House and that it is going to be a knock down drag out game.  Can't wait.

ClearEyesFullHart

October 10th, 2012 at 1:25 PM ^

I dont want to harsh your buzz but Indiana gives up 444yds and 28 points/game.

Short of curing cancer, there isn't much that state's offense could have done to Indiana that hadn't already been done by various assorted cupcakes.

ijohnb

October 10th, 2012 at 1:42 PM ^

they did it against a quality opponent, but sometimes it does not need to be.  Sometimes a lay up can get a shooter going.  Unlike the common sentiment, I don't think State is bad this year.  I think that some of the posts above saying it is possible or likely that they are going to have a losing season and miss a bowl game are ridiculous.  i am not saying they are all of the sudden going to be the best show on turf but I think their offense will improve and not to expect some kind of cake walk.

ClearEyesFullHart

October 10th, 2012 at 1:51 PM ^

Their defense is probably the best in the big ten.  But their offense is one of the worst.  Whether that defense is very good(for the big ten) or dominant(in the big ten) will probably tell the story of their season.  You couldn't pay me to watch them play Iowa though.  Punting records will be set.

Mich Mash

October 9th, 2012 at 11:12 PM ^

Purdue is a major pretender this season, haven't bought the hype at all.  Wisconsin will win the game straight up.

Northwestern will take care of business against Minnesota and cover too.

MSU will get back to form, win and cover the 10.

Ohio will win and cover.  This is still Indiana.

Michigan: win (obvs), but I see Illinois covering the spread in this one.  Something like 38-17.

ClearEyesFullHart

October 9th, 2012 at 11:49 PM ^

Wisconsin Purdue: I like Purdue by 6.  Purdue has an average defense and a good(yards) to very good(scoring) offense.  Wisconsin has a good defense and a terrible(yardage) to average(scoring) offense.  Fun fact: Wisconsin gives up an average of 9 more yards than it gains.  I kid you not.

NW Minnesota: I like Northwestern by 2...maybe more.  Its tough to get a handle on how bad Minnesota is.  They haven't played anyone.  Northwestern has an average defense and a good offense.  Minnesota has a goodish defense and an averageish offense.  Ish because their stats are skewed by not playing anyone.

Iowa MSU: I like MSU by 2.  Iowa has a very good(scoring) to good(yardage) defense and a terrible(scoring) to average(yardage) offense.  MSU has a very good defense and a terrible(scoring) to surprisingly average(yardage) offense.  This is the hardest game to pick a winner...but if you are getting 10!?! points, take em and run.

Ohio Indiana: I like Ohio by 13.  Ohio has a good(scoring) to average(yardage) defense.  They're giving up 387 yards a game, but somehow they are keeping teams off the scoreboard.  OSU's offense is likewise very good(scoring) to good(yardage).  They must have really good special teams or something.  Indiana has a terrible defense and a good(scoring) to very good(yardage) offense.  Fun fact: Indiana's defense is worst in the conference, giving up an average of 444 yards per contest.

Illinois Michigan: I like Michigan by 18.  Illinois has a terrible(scoring) to average(yardage) defense and a terrible offense.  Michigan has a good offense and a good(scoring) to very good(yardage) defense.  Fun fact: little brother actually has the best yardage defense in the big ten by a good margin.  Michigan' defense comes in at #2.