Big Ten Week Nine Lines/Over Under Predictions

Submitted by justingoblue on October 23rd, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Week nine lines and over/unders are up and that means MGoBlog's 238947324th best weekly post is back.

Recap (game, who covered, by how much, over/under, by how much):

Minnesota @ Wisconsin:   Wisconsin   (7.5),  over  (+6) 
Purdue @ Ohio:  Purdue  (7.5), under (-9) 
Michigan State @ Michigan: MSU (8.5), under (-23)
Nebraska @ Northwestern: Northwestern (6), under (-5)
Indiana @ Navy: Indiana (1.5), over (+5.5)
Penn State @ Iowa: Penn State (27), over (+11)

If you picked last week, see how you did here.

Week Nine (line listed is for the home team):

Michigan State @ Wisconsin (-6.5, +/- 41.5)
Iowa @ Northwestern (-6, +/- 49.5)
Purdue @ Minnesota (+3.5, +/- 51)
Michigan @ Nebraska (-2.5, +/- 57.5)
Indiana @ Illinois (-1, +/- 58.5)
Ohio @ Penn State (PK, +/- 50)

What do your picks look like this week? I think Penn State ends OSU's winning streak, they seem due for a loss and PSU seems to match up pretty well. I think Minnesota will cover against Purdue, I think Michigan covers against Nebraska, and I can't help but think the over/under is too high for Iowa/Northwestern.



October 23rd, 2012 at 12:31 PM ^

Wisconsin, under - Wisconsin has been resurgent the past few weeks, though none have been against particularly threatening teams. MSU is a massive step up defensively, but I trust Wisconsin to follow the same blueprint everyone has in beating this team - shut down LeVeon Bell. Badgers win this one 17-10.

Northwestern, over - Iowa is approaching Real Bad (TM) levels. Northwestern should put up a lot of points behind Mark and Coulter, and Iowa's offense gets something done against a terrible Northwestern defense. Northwestern big, 35-17.

Minnesota, under - I have no idea really. I'm guessing Purdue has a letdown after last week's finish against OSU, while Minnesota held on for a bit against Wisconsin. Neither offense is exactly studded with talent. Minnesota wins a close one at home, 21-17.

Michigan, over - Nebraska still struggles with quarterbacks who can run the ball - just look at Braxton Miller and Kevin Hundley's stats against this team. Denard should have a much easier time this week, and the receivers should get some work as Nebraska has struggled defending the pass this year. Nebraska must wait a year for revenge as Michigan wins big, 41-24.

Indiana, over - There's very little chance Illinois comes close to stopping Indiana's offense with any regularity. Indiana has a terrible defense, so they'll give up a fair share of points. Expect some big numbers on the scoreboard in this one, with Indiana winning 52-34.

OSU, over - The thing about Penn State this year is they look really good until you check out that schedule they've played. The offense is good, and while the defense looks great, their defensive SOS is 122 (out of 124) according to FEI. They haven't played anyone who can challenge the depth issues on defense. I'm assuming Braxton Miller is healthy, and OSU wins in a shootout 42-35.


October 23rd, 2012 at 12:36 PM ^

1.  Michigan State @ Wisconsin (-6.5, +/- 41.5)

MSU will win this one.  They will certainly not lose by 6.5.  Their defense is solid, and will hold a crappy Wisco offense in check.  I woudl take MSU (/throws up in mouth)

2.  Iowa @ Northwestern (-6, +/- 49.5)

This is a tough one from a rooting perspective, as well as from a picking perspective.  NW is at home, and seems to be the better of the two - probably because they have a RB on the roster.  I pick NW to win, but not to cover the spreas.

3.  Purdue @ Minnesota (+3.5, +/- 51)

Both suck, but Minnesota is so bad that Purdue should cover.  Remember all of that "Purdue will win the Leaders Division" hype?  Purdue to cover.

4.  Michigan @ Nebraska (-2.5, +/- 57.5)

I don't like to bet on Michigan, so no prediction from me.  Analysis:  Denard has been horrible in night games (yes, even UTL 2011, in which he was completely bottled up for 3.5 quarters.  Ditto the Suger Bowl).  He really does seem to struggle in those situations.  He also struggles against teams with good athletes on D.  Neb does not have a good D, but they do have athletes far better than Purdue and Illinois.  Our offense may really struggle.  On the other side of the ball, though, our D has been great, but at the same we have yet to face a QB as dynamic as Martinez.  If Martinez is "good martinez" we may have trouble bottling him up and Neb may put some points on the board.  At the same time, if he is "bad martinez", I can see our secondary with multiple picks.  This game is too difficult to pick.  My prediction:  me sitting on my couch watching this game with major nerves, probably cursing a lot, definitely losing my voice, and a night culminating with either much happiness about (likely) going to the B10 CG or culminating with much sadness over not.

5.  Indiana @ Illinois (-1, +/- 58.5)

Are they even going to play this game?  Isn't there some rule against playing games that (1) nobody cares about, (2) threaten to ruin the sport of football simply by the level of poor play, and (3) are between teams that most people forget have football teams?

What the hell, I pick Indy, just because I have seen first hand how bad the Illini and their worse-than-zook coach are.

6.  Ohio @ Penn State (PK, +/- 50)

Rooting for PSU, but Ohio will win.  Sure their defense sucks, but their offense looks scary at times.  PSU doesn't have the athletes to keep up in this one.



October 23rd, 2012 at 1:37 PM ^

How many good defenses has Ohio State faced this season? Answer: One (MSU). That is a pretty big factor contributing to their "great" offense. This is an OSU team that has struggled to put away a LOT of teams this year and has only played two road games to date with squeaker wins over MSU and Indiana. Add to that the fact that PSU/McGloin have been extremely effective throwing the ball this season and I forsee PSU scoring plenty of points on OSU's suspect defense.

PSU wins 38-31.


October 23rd, 2012 at 12:39 PM ^

Who do we want to lose more, Northwestern or Iowa? They are both one loss (in B1G) teams and could be problems if we happen to lose a game. After last year's scare against Northwestern, I'm wary of them. However, Iowa is a strange team and we haven't beat them in 4 years, I believe. 


October 23rd, 2012 at 1:00 PM ^

we should be fine barring a major stumble. If Michigan beats Nebraska, and Northwestern bests Iowa, the division standings look like this:

  1. Michigan 4-0 (6-2)
  2. Northwestern 2-2 (7-2)
  3. Nebraska 2-2 (5-3)
  4. Iowa 2-2 (4-4)

We would pretty much have to lose two more conference games than Northwestern and Iowa, or three more than Nebraska and MSU, to lose our place in the division pecking order. Things look a lot bleaker with a loss, but win this weekend and it doesn't much matter who else wins or loses.


October 23rd, 2012 at 4:08 PM ^

The thing to remember is that these Legends games are basically worth two games. If M wins, we take a virtual three game lead on Nebraska, with a loss they have a virtual one game lead on us (since they already have a loss and we don't).

Since this thread has a lot to do with gambling, I would wager a good amount that either Nebraska or Michigan goes to Indianapolis, with a slight M advantage at this point. I don't think Iowa or Northwestern can get into a position to win the division, and State/Minnesota are all but eliminated even before this weekend.

Mich Mash

October 23rd, 2012 at 12:58 PM ^

6-6 last week

Michigan State @ Wisconsin (-6.5, +/- 41.5) Wisconsin / Under
Iowa @ Northwestern (-6, +/- 49.5) Northwestern / Under
Purdue @ Minnesota (+3.5, +/- 51) Purdue / Under
Michigan @ Nebraska (-2.5, +/- 57.5) Michigan / Under
Indiana @ Illinois (-1, +/- 58.5) Indiana / Under
Ohio @ Penn State (PK, +/- 50) Ohio / Over


October 23rd, 2012 at 1:06 PM ^

7-3 last week, did not bet on PSU/Iowa.

This week:

Michigan State @ Wisconsin (-6.5, +/- 41.5) - MSU and under.  Wisky will win a close one, but won't be able to put a ton of points on the board.
Iowa @ Northwestern (-6, +/- 49.5) - This is a tough one.  I'll take NW and under.
Purdue @ Minnesota (+3.5, +/- 51) - Purdue has to win one some time.  Purdue and the over.
Michigan @ Nebraska (-2.5, +/- 57.5) - I'll take Michigan and the over.
Indiana @ Illinois (-1, +/- 58.5) - Indiana and the over.
Ohio @ Penn State (PK, +/- 50) - PSU will finally knock off an OSU team that can't keep pulling wins out of its arse.


October 23rd, 2012 at 1:17 PM ^

MSU/Purdue/Nwestern all suffered BRUTAL losses last weekend and their resultant reactions mentally are going to be extremely volatile. Where they go from there is really anybody's guess. I would not recommend any real wagering on those games. They're all stay aways.

The two bets I like this weekend are Indiana, seemingly hungry for that first win against a listless Illinois team and UM/UNL u57.5. If Michigan's defense gives up more than 21 I'd be very surprised. If we scored more than 28 I'd be equally surprised. That line looks about 2.5 points too high.


October 23rd, 2012 at 1:34 PM ^

Michigan State @ Wisconsin - I would take Wisconsin and the under here. I think that the Badgers win in a relatively low-scoring game. Wisconsin can't do a lot on offense, but they can do more than Michigan State and have a defense that can hinder Bell. 

Iowa @ Northwestern - If this were last week, Iowa, but after watching them do next to nothing for most of the game against PSU, I would take Northwestern and the over. The Wildcats will get stopped by the Hawkeye defense a lot, but not enough. Unless Iowa can keep an RB healthy and Vandenberg can get it together, a ho-hum Northwestern defense can slow down Iowa just enough to scrape by.

Purdue @ Minnesota - 4-3 and 3-4 teams in a battle for the "Bland Football Cup" here, Nevertheless, Purdue covers. Statistically, Minnesota has the better defense, but Purdue, as we have seen, can put some good drives together in isolation, in between the bad ones. 

Michigan @ Nebraska - Michigan covers, but perhaps not by much; if the run defense can keep performing at the level that it has been,  we can slow down just about anyone, even the team that has the best run game in the conference far and away. We should be able to run on their defense enough to win.

Indiana @ Illinois - Indiana can pass and run all day on what passes for defense in Illinois this season. Indiana wins this battle of the 2-5 behemoths. Indiana and the over by perhaps an order of magnitude. 

Ohio @ Penn State - Both teams give up points in this one; Miller & Company can outrun the Penn State defense, and McGloin could look great against no pass rush with little penetration on the line. That being said, running will win it, and so will the Buckeyes, I fear. Ohio and the over. 


October 23rd, 2012 at 2:12 PM ^

I know that our coaches will do everything to prevent this, but I hope that we don't suffer a hangover this coming week after beating our #2 rival on a last-second FG.  Tends to happen to even the best teams.

That said, coming into Nebraska for a Saturday night game tends to prevent that prom happening.



Section 1

October 23rd, 2012 at 2:51 PM ^

There are some interesting matchups, some with very interesting lines.

Notre Dame is getting 10 pts. @ Oklahoma.  Here's hoping the Sooners cover.

USC is -6 @ Arizona.  Bear down, Wildcats!

Texas -21 @ Kansas.  Edit. - I originally misread this as Texas +21.  No this is not a basketball line.  Has Texas beaten anybody by 21 points this year?  (Answer:  Yeah, New Mexico and Ole Miss, when they scored 66.  Otherwise, the Longhorns don't appear to have UMass on the schedule.)

Florida is -6.5 in the annual cocktail party @ Georgia.  This would be the most consequential game of the week if the Gators lost, but I think they will cover easily.

Ohio State @ Penn State.  This line has been all over.  +3, -2, now +1; and some books appear to be not rating the game.  There has got to be some very serious doubt about Braxton Miller's status amongst the smart money in Vegas. 


October 23rd, 2012 at 6:53 PM ^

With the way ND's games have gone this season, I am surprised to see anyone as a 10 pt favorite against the Domers. I think ND covers, but OK wins SU.

Upset Alert for USC: Even before I saw the line, this appeared to be the second most dangerous conference game left on USC's schedule after Oregon. USC beat Utah and Washington by only 10 each on the road and I think Arizona is a better and more dangerous team. Arizona has a decent chance to cover and a modest chance at the outright win. I would even point out that I am most definitely NOT an RR slappy/apologist.


October 23rd, 2012 at 2:47 PM ^

Wisc, under. MSU usually comes out flat the week after UM. Wisc won't blow them out, but a 7 point win seems likely. Always bet the under in an MSU game.

NW, over. Iowa was very poor at home against PSU.

Purdue, under. Boilers seem to have fixed their defense.

Mich, under. That spread/line works out to Neb 30-27. Michigan is not Wisconsin, we have a better defense and an offense of the type that has shredded Neb all year.

Ind, over. Ind has been playing just poorly enough to lose. Ill hasn't done anything right on either side of the ball.

PSU, over. This is PSU's bowl and they will be way, way up for this game. OSU has just been squeaking by against mediocre teams. 


October 23rd, 2012 at 4:30 PM ^

Nebraska hasn't played any decent defenses yet, which is the only reason TM's #s are so high this year. He really struggled in the passing game against UCLA and OSU. I think we beat them in a similar fashion to last year with lots of yards on the ground.


October 23rd, 2012 at 7:27 PM ^

I was curious about your statement re: Martinez's passing renaissance and found that, yes, he has put up his gaudy stats against a host of craptastic pass defenses.

Martinez's passing numbers against the 3 non-BCS teams UN has played:

233 ypg, 9 TD, 0 INT, ~75% completion (Those teams have a combined 5-16 record, btw)

Martinez's passing numbers against the 4 BCS teams UN has played:

229 ypg, 6 TD, 4 INT, ~60% completion (Good combined record for those teams: 25-6)

To get more detailed, the defensive passing numbers of the 4 BCS teams UN has played:

UCLA   251 ypg, 11 TD, 11 INT (TM went for 179, 0 TD, 1 INT)

Wisc   202 ypg, 13 TD, 4 INT (TM went for 181, 2 TD, 0 INT)

OSU  272 ypg, 11 TD, 11 INT (TM went for 214, 1 TD, 3 INT)

NW  280 ypg, 12 TD, 3 INT (TM went for 342, 3 TD, 0 INT)

OSU and UCLA give up a lot of yards but they have good TD-to-INT ratios and TM threw just 1 TD and 4 INTs against those two teams. UM's passing defense, thus far at least, is statistically better than anyone UN has played (143 ypg, 4 TD, 6 INT). Both of those games were on the road, though, so there's that to consider.

BONUS: I also examined UN's turnover situation and I am pleased to report that they are terrible at a total of -9 on the season and -8 in their 4 games against BCS competition.

I am beginning to feel somewhat more optimistic about UM's chances in the game this weekend after this little exercise.



October 23rd, 2012 at 11:36 PM ^

I posted similar on another thead about my main worries for NU in this game. Turnover Ratio and Fumbles Lost have been horrible and the Huskers Achilles heel this year.

Counterpoint: Michigan's best wins so far this year was at home against an unranked MSU 4-4  and on the road against 3-4 Purdue. Nebraska's best, beaten ranked 6-2 Wisconsin at home and come from behind on the road against a 6-2 NW.

Perkis-Size Me

October 23rd, 2012 at 7:00 PM ^

indiana will finally break through with a big conference win. wilson is long overdue.
msu hangover continues. wiscy wins.
its tempting to pick ohio to win on sat, but with how well psu is playing, and how fired up they'll be for the game, i just don't see them losing. miller will still look good, but the psu defense will play the game of its life that night. bill o'brien gets his first big win on saturday night, and the recruits will take notice.
i hate predicting michigan games, but this could potentially be a blowout win for UM, or a close heartbreaking loss. i don't see the nebraska defense stopping denard, period. he will run wild all night, at least 100-150 yds rushing. whether or not nebraska wins depends on if martinez and co. can keep up. if good t-magic shows up, we have a shootout. if bad t-magic shows up, michigan wins big. i'm inclined towards the former, though. nebraska is just a different team at home. what i feel good about, though, is that michigan is the best defensive team nebraska has played all year, and nebraska simply can't stop a dual threat qb.


October 23rd, 2012 at 7:09 PM ^

1. Michigan State @ Wisconsin (-6.5, +/- 41.5)

Since 1999, home team is 8-3 SU, but 6-5 ATS. Including the Big Ten Championship, four of the last six games have been decided by less than seven points. With that said, I'll take Wisconsin, who seems to have hit their stride, but I'll take the under.

2. Iowa @ Northwestern (-6, +/- 49.5)

Crucial game for the Hawkeyes, as a loss likely eliminates them from the division race. Iowa has been tough to figure out this year. I'm inclined to take the under with a weaker play on Iowa with the points.

3. Purdue @ Minnesota (+3.5, +/- 51)

I'm still of the belief that the Gophers will be bowl eligible, but that makes the game against Purdue a must win. I'll take Minnesota with the points and the over.

4. Michigan @ Nebraska (-2.5, +/- 57.5)

At the beginning of the year I took Nebraska, here. I'm really unimpressed with Nebraska, and seeing how the 'Huskers defended Ohio State's offense, I'm less concerned about Michigan's chances here. Still, its very much a tossup. I'll take Michigan ATS and the under.

5. Indiana @ Illinois (-1, +/- 58.5)

Illinois has become a complete tirefire. It wouldn't surprise me to see them lose out. When was the last time Indiana won a road conference game though? November 27, 2010, against Purdue. Still, I'll take the Hoosiers and the over.

6. Ohio @ Penn State (PK, +/- 50)

I'll admit, I was wrong on Penn State. They have proved to be much better than I thought and have shown the ability to bounce back after an 0-2 start. The Nittany Lions defense has been pretty good - that could very well be the difference. If the Buckeyes win, I expect the over to pay. But I'll go with Penn State, and the under, in a rare 5:30 PM start.


October 23rd, 2012 at 7:45 PM ^

9-3 last week

Michigan State @ Wisconsin (-6.5, +/- 41.5) - MSU, Under
Iowa @ Northwestern (-6, +/- 49.5) - Northwestern, under
Purdue @ Minnesota (+3.5, +/- 51) - Minnesota, Over
Michigan @ Nebraska (-2.5, +/- 57.5) - Nebraska, Under
Indiana @ Illinois (-1, +/- 58.5) - Indiana, Under
Ohio @ Penn State (PK, +/- 50) - Penn State, Over