Big Ten Week Eleven Lines/Over Under Predictions

Submitted by justingoblue on November 6th, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Week eleven lines and over/unders are up and that means MGoBlog's 238947324th best weekly post is back.

Recap (game, who covered, by how much, over/under, by how much):

Illinois @ Ohio State: Ohio State (2.5) over (+23.5)
Michigan @ Minnesota: Michigan (9.5) under (-3.5)
Penn State @ Purdue: Penn State (21.5) under (-8.5)
Nebraska @ Michigan State: Nebraska (2) over (8)
Iowa @ Indiana: Indiana (1.5) under (-10.5)

Notes: No upsets this week.

If you picked last week, see how you did here.

Week Eleven (line listed is for the home team):

Northwestern @ Michigan (-11, +/-52.5)
Penn State @ Nebraska (-7.5, +/-53)
Wisconsin @ Indiana (+7, +/-54.5)
Purdue @ Iowa (-4.5, +/-51)
Minnesota @ Illinois (+3, +/-47)

For the second week in a row, I have to say Penn State looks good at that line. This may be wishful thinking on my part, but I definitely think Nebraska and Martinez hit a wall enough times that it should go down to the wire. Elsewhere, I'm more confident that Minnesota will beat Illinois handily, and the over looks tempting for Wisconsin v. Indiana.

Elsewhere:

Texas A&M @ Alabama (-15.5, +/-56)
Oregon @ California (+28, +/-67.5)
Notre Dame @ Boston College (+19, +/-48)
Colorado @ Arizona (-31, +/-68)

Nobody has been willing to put a line on Kansas State v. TCU (Klein).
 

Comments

Blueto

November 6th, 2012 at 11:15 AM ^

I'm tempted to hedge my emotional investment and take NW and 11 points. Northwestern isn't bad. I think we'll win but it might be closer than that.

GrowBlue

November 6th, 2012 at 11:19 AM ^

I'm surprised that there are even lines for us. When a major player is questionable due to injury, don't the books typically hesitate to release lines? (Too much uncertainty). Happened when Braxton was taken to the hospital a few weeks back...

justingoblue

November 6th, 2012 at 11:19 AM ^

With nothing other than guesses about Denard, that line opening at thirteen in at least one place seems really big. Northwestern is a pretty decent team; I think we win, but double digits seems optimistic at this point, let alone nearly two touchdowns earlier in the week.

WolvinLA2

November 6th, 2012 at 11:19 AM ^

Definitely under on our game. No way NW scores more than 17, which would mean we'd need to score 36.

I bet both teams score fewer than that and the score looks a lot like our score from last week. I'll say 33-13.

Logan88

November 6th, 2012 at 11:22 AM ^

Two items before moving on to picks:

1) Didn't the MSU/Nebraska game go OVER? I think the O/U was ~44 and the total was 52.

2) What is the deal with the dude who keeps negging these posts? Opposition to even the hint of gambling? Just doesn't like the OP? What gives?

On with the shu...

UM wins...and covers. UM 30 NU 17.

Nebraska also covers. PSU is not really that good and UN will be bringing the heat against McGloin.

Indiana..WINS!...but doesn't cover.

Iowa wins and covers.

I have no idea what will happen with the Minny/Illinois game. If I had to pick, I would go with Minny as I suspect that the Illini players may have folded up their tents at this point.

ChicagoB1GRed

November 6th, 2012 at 3:40 PM ^

Best home win: NW
Best road win: Purdue, Iowa, Illinois—-take your pick
Other wins: Navy, Temple
Best Loss: OSU
Worst Loss: Ohio, Virginia

Not an impressive body of work for a 6-3 team. And their pro-style, pocket passer offense is what Pelini defenses typically feast on. But the Huskers might have one of their “lay an egg” games they shouldn’t lose like NW last year. Don’t think so with this team.

Still think the Legends isn't decided until last week of the season

ChicagoB1GRed

November 8th, 2012 at 6:09 PM ^

and playing a complete game instead of waiting till mid 4th quarter----we smoke PSU, so higher than 10.5 (see below). We really haven't put it all together in a game this year. That's our flaw.

Pelini's defenses feast on pro style offenses like PSU. We have one of the B1G's best offenses, the best when not shooting ourselves in the foot. And as I said, I think PSU's 6-3 record is....not that good.

But so far Nebraska has played streaky, and PSU's game seems to be opportunistic and steady. So in that regard PSU matches up well against us. The Hare and the Tortoise. Wish we had Burkhead back, he's the team's rock.

            The good NU: 38-14

            The bad NU: 27-21

[EDIT]:  The ugly NU: 20-27

Legends not decided till last week of the season.

Trebor

November 6th, 2012 at 11:24 AM ^

Northwestern, over - Michigan looked good last week without Denard, but Northwestern is going to be a bit more of a threat I think. With Colter taking over the QB duties full time for the Wildcats, it's going to be a close game with decent point totals on both sides. Michigan pulls away late, 34-24.

Penn State, under - Nebraska has looked very good at home, but they haven't been tested aside from Michigan pre-Denard injury. Penn State brings a tough, disciplined (i.e., not MSU) defense, and an offense which looks better and better each week. Penn State comes close, but Nebraska again wins at the wire, 27-24.

Wisconsin, over - This should be a game with a lot of points, but Wisconsin is just a bit too strong for Indiana I think. The hopes of seeing the Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl die here as Wisconsin wins 35-27.

Iowa, under - Two teams that have had extremely disappointing seasons. Good for Iowa is they are at home and Purdue has quit for the season. With Iowa still technically in the race for a division title, they take care of business 20-7.

Minnesota, over - Illinois is terrible. Minnesota has found some new life with Nelson at QB. Minnesota does here what they did to an almost-as-bad Purdue team and win handily, 42-13.

For the other games:

Alabama, under (Alabama wins 31-14)
Oregon, over (Oregon wins 56-17)
Notre Dame, under (ND wins 28-7)
Arizona, under (Arizona wins 52-7)

Logan88

November 6th, 2012 at 12:08 PM ^

Agreed. N'Western's offense isn't that good. I know that their scoring average is slightly better than UM's but they have 5  non-offensive TD's this season to ony 1 non-offensive TD for UM, so their offense has been even less productive than UM. In addition, UM has played 3 elite defenses (Bama, ND and MSU) while NU has only played one good defense in PSU.

Againt the 8 FBS teams NU has played (they also played Sout Dakota, an FCS team with a 1-8 record...so they really don't even count as a real team IMO) they have done the following:

@ Syracuse: 337 offensive yards, 596 given up by defense. Won the game 42-41. They scored 2 non-offensive TD's in this game and were +2 TO margin.

Vandy: 324 offensive yards, 318 defense. Won 23-13 but scored the last points late in game to "pull away." +2 TO margin.

BC: 560 offensive, 316 defensive. Somehow only won 22-13. BC is horrible.

Indiana: 704 offensive, 425 defensive. Best performance of the season. Indiana is not good but they are better than BC. 44-29 win.

@PSU: 247 offensive, 443 defensive. Lost 28-39. Scored a non-offensive TD.

@Minny: 275 offensive, 327 defensive. Won 21-13. +3 TO margin.

Nebraska: 301 offensive, 543 defensive. Lost 28-29. +3 TO margin. They should have been blown out in this game.

Iowa: 433 offensive, 336 defensive. 28-17. 2nd best performance of season.

In their 3 road games, they are averaging 286 yards on offense and giving up 455 yards on defense. Had they played UM's schedule, they would probably be no better than 5-4 and very likely would be 4-5.

BeantownWolverine

November 6th, 2012 at 11:34 AM ^

 

- As another poster pointed out, MSU/NEB was definitely OVER. Don't ask me why I remember so well.

- If I bet on NW, I would buy some points to go with NW +14. I don't think we can beat NW by 2TDs, with our without Denard.

- Minn covers and wins. Minny is getting better and better as Nelson takes more snaps and Barker getting healthier.

- Indiana covers. TD, Houston.

- Iowa covers. I never underestimate that pink room.

 

- Oregon, aka the cover machine, will cover.

 

 

Logan88

November 6th, 2012 at 12:35 PM ^

The ND game is odd. All of ND's nailbiters have been in South Bend, while they have generally been winning big on the road. Meanwhile, BC, even though they have been bad for some time now, has been giving ND fits for about 8 years now, so I would not be surprised to see them cover in a night game at Chestnut Hill.

LSAClassOf2000

November 6th, 2012 at 1:13 PM ^

Northwestern @ Michigan (-11, +/-52.5) -  Almost nothing Northwestern does comes through the air, so we may spend much of the game testing the endurance of the rushing defense. We'll pull it out, but the Wildcats will see the end zone a couple times. 30-24 Michigan

 
Penn State @ Nebraska (-7.5, +/-53) - Penn State has an excellent passing attack this year, and should be able to slow down Nebraska on the ground, but I think the Cornhuskers have the weapons in the rushing game to grind the Nittany Lions down. 24-21 Nebraska.

Wisconsin @ Indiana (+7, +/-54.5) -  Indiana is going to score, no doubt, but the Badgers defense is good enough by the numbers to not let it happen as often as the Buckeyes did, and Danny O'Brien or Montee Ball or otherwise, there is no denying that Indiana trolls the bottom of many defensive metrics in the conference. Wisconsin in a 35-24-ish performance.

Purdue @ Iowa (-4.5, +/-51) -  I cannot imagine this game producing more than 51 points of offense as both offenses are statistically anemic, but Iowa is going to be able to keep the Boilermakers from doing much despite being their own worst enemy on offense. 24-10 Iowa.

Minnesota @ Illinois (+3, +/-47) - In short, Minnesota looks capable of doing to the Illini what we did to them. The Gophers definitely tack onto an increasingly lengthy list of Illini bloodlettings in conference play. 35-10 Gophers.

Mich Mash

November 6th, 2012 at 1:13 PM ^

...7-3 last week.

Northwestern @ Michigan (-11, +/-52.5): Michigan / Over
Penn State @ Nebraska (-7.5, +/-53): Penn St / Under
Wisconsin @ Indiana (+7, +/-54.5): Wisconsin / Over
Purdue @ Iowa (-4.5, +/-51): Iowa / Under
Minnesota @ Illinois (+3, +/-47): Minnesota / Over

snowcrash

November 6th, 2012 at 2:07 PM ^

Mich, under. Michigan doesn't do high-scoring games against opponents with a pulse. I think the defense can hold NW to 17 or less.

PSU, under. I like the half point, I can easily see a 7 point Neb win here. PSU does not have the type of offense to blow Neb's defense up.

Ind, over. I like Wisconsin to win but not to cover. Ind always keeps it close at home.

Iowa, under. Purdue's offense is regressing.

Minn, under. Good teams wear the Gophers down, but they can take care of business against crappy teams.

Balrog_of_Morgoth

November 6th, 2012 at 10:27 PM ^

Vegas is (roughly) predicting

Michigan 32, Northwestern 21

Nebraska 30, Penn State 23

Wisconsin 31, Indiana 24

Iowa 28, Purdue 23

Minnesota 25, Illinois 22

I'll take Northwestern (under), Penn State (over), Indiana (under), Iowa (over), and Minnesota (under). 

spartanfan123

November 6th, 2012 at 11:29 PM ^

Yikes, 4-6 last week. Still 31-13 overall

 

Northwestern @ Michigan (-11, +/-52.5) - Northwestern, under
Penn State @ Nebraska (-7.5, +/-53) - Nebraska, under
Wisconsin @ Indiana (+7, +/-54.5) - Indiana (I hope), over
Purdue @ Iowa (-4.5, +/-51) - Iowa, under
Minnesota @ Illinois (+3, +/-47) - Minnesota, under

Newbs

November 8th, 2012 at 9:26 AM ^

I'm taking Michigan by 24 and the under. NW has a good offense but our defense will shut them down especiaqlly at home. If anything the d may give up a couple TD's before we make our adjustments and crush them.