Big Ten Tournament scenarios

Submitted by redwings8831 on March 1st, 2016 at 1:39 PM…

95.65% chance we finish with the 8 seed (and play in the afternoon session Thr/Fri for the 8th time in the last 10 years) but 6/7 seeds are still possible.

Penn State would be the likely matchup in the 8/9 game and Northwestern in the 7/10 game.

The full breakdown of all possible scenarios is in the link above. Below is a tournament generator that spits out brackets based on specified results.



March 1st, 2016 at 1:47 PM ^

Michigan wants to be in that 8 slot.  Staae is probably going to end up in the 2 slot, so we don't want to play them.  Wisconsin is looking very likely to be the 3, and we don't match up well with them historically.  Not to mention that Indiana is probably the most beatable of the 3 teams mentioned.  I also like playing Penn State more than Northwestern.  If Olah is hot, they become a nightmare for us, which is sad.


March 1st, 2016 at 2:03 PM ^

Not sure how Indiana is the most beatable. Did you forget that they led by as much as 27 against Michigan and could have easily won by 30+?  Of the three, Wisconsin is the most beatable. That was a 5 point game with under 5 minutes to go.


March 1st, 2016 at 3:14 PM ^

is something like 2-15 against Wisconsin.  It's beyond pathetic.  The reason I think Indiana is beatable, is not because of how they beat us (which was bad) but that they are not an elite defensive team, so as long as we don't go 10 minutes and not make a single freaking shot, we should be able to stay in that game.  Also, they are a bit easier to gameplan for than say Michigan State.


March 1st, 2016 at 2:30 PM ^

Indiana is not beatable at all.  They out athletic us by A LOT.  Hell, Bielfeldt made us look silly.  They would murder us again.  Give me Wisconsin again, though as you state they recently have had out number, this year we match up "okay" with them.


March 1st, 2016 at 2:41 PM ^

The season has been a huge disappointment, but there's no better way to turn that around than by beating MSU in the big 10 tournament.

We probably lose no matter who we play between MSU, Indiana, and Wisconsin - so I'd rather go out guns blazing and get a shot at a meaningful upset that would actually alter the narrative of the season for the positive than try to sneak into the tournament through the backdoor.

Michigan needs to get hot from 3 and get lucky to beat a good team right now, I'd rather we got a shot at that happening against MSU than anything else.


March 1st, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^

I've gone "full DVR" this year and it's awesome.  No commercials, no halftime and no announcers blathering during the seven timeouts called in the last two minutes.   60 minute games take no more than 90 minutes to watch (instead of 3.5 hours) and if you want to get something to eat/drink or go to the bathroom you miss nothing.

The suspense is absolutely there if you dont know the outcome.  And if you just turn your phone off and stay off the interwebs it's pretty easy to avoid if you ask me.  Let's face it - unless you are there in person EVERYTHING is delayed to some degree - the only question is for how long.  I almost watch nothing real time anymore just so I can avoid all the crap listed above.

The only this I miss are the open threads and somehow I've managed to survive without the thrill of reading such pearls of wisdom as "Fire his ass" or "Fucking Zac SUCKS" or the ever popular "This is disgusting.  I've turning off the TV and gettting something to drink" during a game where the score is freaking tied!


March 1st, 2016 at 2:49 PM ^

(that would include dropping an away game at Illinois in addition to a home game vs Indiana.)

We could rise to #6 if Iowa, Maryland, and Purdue all go 0-2.

Wisconsin only falls to 11-7 tied with us if they go 0-2.  We win in some but nowhere near all of the possible combinations given that partially realized scenario.


March 1st, 2016 at 2:24 PM ^

TeamRankings is still projecting Michigan as an 8-seed in the conference tournament as well, breaking the current projection for advancement up as follows:

To quarterfinals - 72.19%

To semifinals - 23.37%

To finals - 9.42%

Champion - 3.21%

Also of note, the game against Iowa is - as of right now - an ever-so-slight Michigan lean on their model at about 53%. 


March 1st, 2016 at 5:53 PM ^

First, find the marginal probability of a Friday win given a Thursday win:



Then, given that we win on Thursday(this is necessary--we don't get to two wins without it), three of the four possible scenarios get us into the Dance:

ThuW*FriW*IowaW=In =0.7219*0.3237*0.53=0.1239
ThuW*FriW*IowaL=In =0.7219*0.3237*0.47=0.1098
ThuW*FriL*IowaW=In =0.7219*0.6763*0.53=0.2587

The sum of the probabilities of the first three scenarios is 0.4924, so it looks like we've got about a 50/50 shot of making the dance.


March 1st, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^

I agree with wanting to play PSU for two reasons:

The first being that we match up better with them than Northwestern.

The other being RPI wins; if PSU wins the last two regular season games (both winnable home games against Northwestern and Illinois) then they would be in the top 100 of the RPI when we play and we can add another top 100 win.



March 1st, 2016 at 3:45 PM ^

We want a tough road so we can add quality wins, but as far as MSU, no, they are the only team in the conference I cannot imagine us beating no matter what.  IU, Purdue, Wisky, and Iowa are all teams I think we have a more than 10% chance to beat.

MSU and Kansas are the two best teams in the country, only Virginia is close to them right now with the way they are playing.  I do not want another shot at Sparty, they could embarrass worse than the 1st time, they are playing better than that game.