Big game jimmystats

Submitted by Oldadguy on December 30th, 2018 at 2:27 PM

Brian/Seth we have enough of a sample for a jimmystats on Michigan under Harbaugh against top 25 teams. Is it scheme? Personnel? Or a little of both?



December 30th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^

I think it makes sense to break it out into top 25 and top 10. Harbaugh's team seems to be capable of beating compromised teams, and there are plenty of them in the top 25 but few in the top 10. 


December 30th, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^

Scheme and coaching in my opinion .. we recruit better than PSU, NW,MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin probably on par with ND .. OSU recruits better than us .. I mentioned those teams because typically those are the top 25 teams we play with exception of bowl teams .. Bowl teams we recruited better than UF and SC ..FSU recruited better than us .. 


December 31st, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^

@JTP; It's not just that.  Continuously running up the middle and never running outside to stretch the defense doesn't do your offense any good either.  You keep a defense honest with the ability to run outside.  It opens up your play action and passing game and forces the defense to play 4 and 3 man fronts.  When you keep running up the middle you can fill 6,7 or 8 guys in the box.  His play calling is the most predictable since Emperor Palpatine foresaw the Rebel attack on the 2nd Death Star.  0-4 agains Brutus Buckey, 1-3 bowl record, 1-9 against top 10 teams since being HC here.  Time to go!  When is enough gonna be enough.  This is the University of Michigan football for Christ's sake, man!!!  We deserve better!!!


December 31st, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^

Has nothing to do with it, Ham.  You can have 11 5-star recruits on the field.  If you can't stop being stubborn on offense with your continued running up the middle every play it does nothing.  Harbaugh is the Marty Schottenheimer of the NCAA.  Good teams and not a pot to piss in to show for it.  It's time for him to go!!


December 30th, 2018 at 11:26 PM ^

Top 5? Are you kidding?

Over the past 4 years, Ohio State has recruited 42 more 4* recruits than 3*. Over that same time, Michigan has recruited only 9  more 4* recruits than 3*. (Ohio State also recruited 12 5* recruits over that time, while Michigan recruited only 4.) Ohio State's Blue-Chip ratio over that time period is 3.94; Michigan 3.6.

For 2019, Ohio State's Blue-Chip ratio is 3.875; Michigan 3.63. For Michigan to have stayed even with Ohio State, they would have to switch out 6 of the 3* recruits for 6 more 4*. Michigan has a fine 2019 class, but it is still falling behind the Buckeyes.


December 31st, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^

Don't forget 1-9 vs top 10 teams since being here.  He will never be more than a 10 win coach who can't win a bowl game.  His history at SDSU and Stanford prove that.  It's time for him to go.  John Beilien evolved his the way he coaches, and has been to 2 national title games and won 2 big tourneys doing it.  I'm so sick of the sit and wait BS.  When do we stop getting laughed at and stop being outcoached, embarrassed and outscored 103-63 in 2 games???????


December 30th, 2018 at 2:59 PM ^

I think it is hard to beat top 10 teams with body blows because they are at least as talented as you. If you are going to run a ground and pound football team you need Alabama talent and even then Bama spreads it out more. These 3 star guys like Sean Mckeon, B Watson and Stueber are good enough against the Maryland's of the world but not OSU level talent.

I Like Burgers

December 30th, 2018 at 4:28 PM ^

That's ultimately why Bama changed philosophies a few years ago.  They use to use the "we're more talented and better coached" approach Michigan seems to use and would be content winning a game 9-6 by suffocating you with defense and offense.

Jim McElwain was the OC during those 3-loss and 9-6 sludgefart seasons, and his and his predecessor's (Nussmeirer) approach worked most of the time.  But after seeing guys like Manziel and Cam and even Trevor Knight operate in offenses that were more wide open and aggressive, Saban wanted someone that could take all of those tricks less talented teams used to close the gap, turn it all on its head and use them against everyone regardless of talent level.  Or use them when a game turned into a shootout. So he brought in Kiffin.

And now they are a damn juggernaunt.  And all of those changes really kicked in after they lost back-to-back games in 2013 to Auburn and Oklahoma.  They "let" Nussmeier take the Michigan OC job, brought in Kiffin, and have lost a total of 5 games since then.


December 30th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^

Add bad luck. The bad spot game at Columbus, last year with very poor to poor QB play, this year playing a Florida team that had lost 4 straight to us and had the motivation as well as a dang good coach to get the job done. Excuses? Maybe, but Coach H hasn't had the best draws at times. Even so, 1-10 against teams in the top 10 isn't anything he'd find acceptable. One thing no one has mentioned is that in his 4 years at the helm he has won 38 games, how far back do you have to go to get 4 years winning that many games? I think the team is getting better each year and next year will have a solid squad as well, keep the faith. Just keep rowing, dammit...oh my bad, wrong mantra...

I Like Burgers

December 30th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^

Michigan's drives in the fourth quarter vs. Ohio State in 2016:

5 plays, 16 yards, punt, 2:02 clock used

3 plays, -6 yards, punt, 1:31 clock used

3 plays, 6 yards, punt, 1:25 clock used


Any sort of mildly competent drive likely ends that game in regulation.  But was totally the spot that screwed Michigan in that game.  Like saying you would have made it home just fine after a few too many cocktails if it wasn't for that utility pole being there.


December 30th, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^

Michigan fans are finding out why Indy and Cleveland fired Pep Hamilton.

This guy's offense was terrible vs ND, terrible vs MSU, terrible vs OSU, and terrible vs UF. And he's the highest paid OC in the country.

He cannot return in 2019.


December 30th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^

I've heard talk that Jedd basically said "me and no Drevno, or I'm leaving" and Harbaugh let him go. If that's the case, it was a huge mistake. Even if Jedd isn't amazing, going with him would have saved us at least a year of shit OL coaching/recruiting and now years of Pep. 

Jedd as OC with Warinner brought in back then would have made for a much different 2017 and 2018 season. 

I Like Burgers

December 30th, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^

I like that people keep thinking that Pep is making all of these decisions on what kind off offense to run.

This is the offense Harbaugh wants to run.  Not Pep, not Drevno, and not Fisch.  Its always been Harbaugh's offense.  Harbaugh will take input from all of those guys, but the scope and design of it all is ultimately his choice.


December 30th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^

Regardless of the quality of the opponent, the scheme, playcalling, player usage, and heck even clock management on the offensive side of the ball are just not that good. Does anyone think that Florida has better players on offense than Michigan does? I personally don’t. But their players are put in a better position to succeed with play designs and timing of play calling. My best example of play design from yesterday would be the nice double pick play that they ran to score a TD from the 5 yard line to make it 20-10. It was creative and a great way to spring a guy open when the field is condensed. I’ve never seen M run anything remotely that creative in the red zone. My best example of play calling was Florida running a jet sweep on 4th and 1. Michigan certainly has that play in the playbook, but Harbaugh has shown he would never think about running that play in that situation. 

Florida players even commented after the game that there were times when they knew what play was coming. That’s being outcoached. 


December 30th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^

Florida isn't the first team to comment that they know Michigan's play pre-snap. USC said the exact same thing too.

Another thing Florida did that I can't recall Michigan ever doing, was changing up their snap count. Sometimes they snapped super fast, other times slow, and other times in the middle. It really discombobulated the Michigan defense - probably because they never face anything but a slow ass snap. 


December 30th, 2018 at 5:17 PM ^

I think Florida has quality skill players. With Higdon out, Michigan would have taken their RBs and Toney is a pretty special player. The biggest difference, I thought, was Patterson vs. Franks. Franks was demoted a month ago only to have the other guy (Trask I think) get hurt.

Mullens has been able to create a functional offense for a QB with limited ability. The Quads look was a "count the box" feature. Draw if 5, Screen if 6+. They hurt Michigan with that for 2 TDs. All Franks really threw were screens and verts and some moving pocket stuff, other than his one nice throw over the middle on a key 3rd and Long in the 3rd quarter. 


December 30th, 2018 at 6:27 PM ^

I think you bring up another good topic of conversation with the Quads look. 

How often do you think Michigan shows a formation and then checks to a certain play call based on the other team’s formation? Or does Michigan do it all the time and just isn’t any good at it? 

It’s hard to tell because most of the time it just looks like Michigan trots out a different formation and hopes that whatever they have called is gonna work regardless of the opposition’s formation. Heck one play yesterday we had no left guard but instead a TE two yards off the LOS where the LG would normally be. Why? What advantage could that possibly provide?


December 30th, 2018 at 6:56 PM ^

I’d say it’s 60% personnel. We were still running Hoke era recruits at key spots yesterday. Mone, Marshall, Watson, and a lot of the upper classmen were from the hybrid class like Kinnel, Runyan, Perry, I still think it took 2 years for Harbaugh and his staff to reconnect with recruiting high school football. He got behind the 8 ball a bit with his roster. Watching the playoff games yesterday, it is clear that the jimmys and joes make the difference. I don’t think Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley are bad coaches, but their personnel got manhandled yesterday. 


December 30th, 2018 at 8:02 PM ^

Harbaugh’s Football program is embarrassing.  For all the resources he has, he continues to shit the bed against teams with comparable talent.   It’s so  frustrating hearing Ohio State make fun of us for again and again  gaging in big games.