Big-10 O/U win totals; Michigan 9.5/under, ohio 11.5/under

Submitted by Steves_Wolverines on July 8th, 2013 at 1:14 PM

CBS Writer Tom Fornelli goes over each Big-10 teams O/U win total (as provided by 5Dimes), and makes his prediction. Link? LINK

He thinks OSU's best chance at a loss is from Michigan. 

Says Michigan has a tough schedule which would make the smart money on under 9.5. (I think he's wrong) 

And MSU, well, they have no offense, so he has no confidence. 

 

Comments

michgoblue

July 8th, 2013 at 1:23 PM ^

While I would probably take the over, there is a strong case to be made for taking the under for Michigan. Scary young o-line, several questions on the d line, devin being backed up by a true freshman and air, etc all argue that 3 losses is not unreasonable.

CRex

July 8th, 2013 at 1:27 PM ^

We're definitely still at the point where an injury or two to a posistion we don't have much depth results is bad.  A key guy missing a quarter could result in a loss, a long term injury and suddenly 7 or 8 wins is a real possibility.  

MichiganStephen

July 8th, 2013 at 1:25 PM ^

While I agree with you that we should expect 10 wins, I think 9.5 is the perfect number for Michigan.  ND, OSU and one of MSU/Neb/NW is what most are probably thinking.

Logan88

July 8th, 2013 at 2:26 PM ^

I'm not quite prepared to go as far as predicting a win for Cal, but I think this could be a shocking loss for OSU during their "Coronation To AWESOMENESS!" tour (aka 2013 regular season schedule).

As you pointed out Cal gave OSU all they could handle last season in Columbus (they actually outgained OSU by about 100 yards and missed 3 FG's in a 7 pt loss) and now the game will be in California with its accompanying 3 hour time change. Add in a new offensive philosophy for Cal (no huddle spread attack) which OSU will not have seen much film on and I think this is actually one of the more likely possible losses on OSU's schedule and that says a lot about just how pathetic their 2013 schedule is.

LSAClassOf2000

July 8th, 2013 at 3:22 PM ^

To add a little to this, here's what Massey's preseason estimates are for each game on Ohio State's slate:

       
Opponent Result PF PA
Buffalo

 
97%

 
38 10
San Diego St

 
84%

 
35 21
California

 
69%

 
31 24
Florida A&M

 
100%

 
49 0
Wisconsin

 
57%

 
30 27
Northwestern

 
50%

 
31 30
Iowa

 
83%

 
28 14
Penn St

 
65%

 
28 22
Purdue

 
74%

 
35 27
Illinois

 
90%

 
34 14
Indiana

 
87%

 
41 24
Michigan

 
45%

 
27 30

Based on the simulation, we are the only team against which Ohio State would be a slight underdog, although this simulation also has them in a toss-up against Northwestern and they are only slightly favored against Wisconsin. The average Sagarin rating (using 2012 numbers) of the teams on the Ohio State schedule would be 68.33, which would be good for about 71st or 72nd in the list he compiles, I believe. By comparison, the average Sagarin rating for Michigan's slate is 73.02, which would be in the mid-50s on the list. Massey also puts us in the 40%-60% range against Notre Dame (42%), Northwestern (48%), Penn State (51%), Michigan State (51%), Ohio State (55%) and Nebraska (59%). 

 

Logan88

July 8th, 2013 at 7:45 PM ^

I'm surprised by the disparity in the win % for UM versus Notre Dame and OSU. I think the ND game will be more difficult as Michigan's OL will likely still be very raw that early in the season but I think OSU is actually a little bit better than ND. A 13% difference seems too great.

turd ferguson

July 8th, 2013 at 1:29 PM ^

I'll go with the "on" for that 9.5 number.  I say we go exactly 9.5-2.5.  Winning more than 9.5 games and winning fewer than 9.5 games both seem ridiculous to me.

CLord

July 8th, 2013 at 1:32 PM ^

Ohio's schedule is laughable.  But even more laughable is that all the sanctions did last year was help Ohio avoid getting ROFLstompted at the hands of Alabama in a bowl game...

mh277907

July 8th, 2013 at 1:51 PM ^

I wish we didn't have a bowl ban last year for obvious reasons but it would have also been interesting to see who got left out of the NC game. It would have been very hard to keep an undefeated ND or OSU team out and probably equally as hard, if not harder, to keep out a 1 loss Alabama. The drama of that situation would have been crazy.

Blue in Yarmouth

July 8th, 2013 at 2:54 PM ^

but it is still pure speculation that OSU would have remained undefeated. They would still have had to win the B1G championship to get through the schedule undefeated and even put the people in charge of selections in the dilemma you're talking about. 

Again, I'm not saying they wouldn't have won, but they almost lost to teams far worse than Nebraska last year so it wouldn't have been a given that they would have remained undefeated. If it happened that they did lose, there's no way a 1 loss team (whoever they might be) gets into the national championship over Alabama.

Perkis-Size Me

July 8th, 2013 at 1:47 PM ^

No kidding pegging Ohio at 11.5. If Michigan had their joke of a schedule I'd peg us in the same spot, too.

Even if Michigan can't prevent OSU from going to the title game, I have a feeling Bama will put them right back in their place. Give Saban a month to prepare, and in no world or alternate dimension would I ever bet against him.

Still, I like our chances to crush some Fuckeye hopes on Nov. 30th. Brady Hoke does not lose at home.

Michiganguy19

July 8th, 2013 at 1:48 PM ^

For betting is the 8.5 line on most sites (Sportsbook has it). The Over is -130, not much more than the STD vig and if you are looking at 9-10 wins in your predictions... either is a winner!

TrppWlbrnID

July 8th, 2013 at 1:51 PM ^

i think michigan will end up playing 14 games this year, which means that to get 5 losses and under 9.5 they will need to lose the bowl game, the conf champ game, osu, ND and one of MSU, Nb or Nw. i guess that is possible, but i am trying to stay positive this year, so gimme the over!

TSimpson77

July 8th, 2013 at 2:02 PM ^

"Most Improved Pass Defenses in 2013

Rank Team

1 Louisiana Tech

2 Oklahoma St

3 West Virginia

4 Tennessee

5 Baylor

6 Miami, Fl

7 Houston

8 Louisiana

9 Ohio St

10 ULM

11 WKU

12 Stanford

13 Arkansas

14 Arizona

15 Oregon

122 Georgia St

123 Nevada

124 Georgia

125 Michigan

126 Texas Tech"

I think Phil's computer is broke!!

bluenectarine

July 8th, 2013 at 2:55 PM ^

we lose more then 2 games for the 12 game regular season. If this bet includes 2 more games (i.e. Conference championship and bowl game), this 9.5 total is laughable!...I think we will win all 12 games then MAYBE lose to Ohio in Conf championship and then depending on the bowl, win or lose there....Overall, I expect 13-0 and National championship game...watch and learn!

uminks

July 9th, 2013 at 2:27 AM ^

How well will the interior offensive line play...Michigan will have the talent but will lack experience. Will the defense be able to carry the team during the start of the season until the offense gels. Or will Gardner come out a hot good to great QB, like I think he will! We have some good talent at RB, will we finally have that go to back? Still a lot of questions.  We'll see if the full potential of this team will be realized.

My thoughts are if we lose at home to ND in a close game, we probably end up 9-3 or 10-2. If ND whips us at home it could be an 8-4 season. If we beat ND at home we'll probably go on to 10 or 11 win season.

I'm really excited about this season and I will be really interested in our defense. Greg finally is starting to get the talent and depth for a good defense, which will be great in a few more years. Even if we go 8-4 this season, I think next season we will win 10 games with a good chance of defeating OSU in Columbus!

Worse case scenario 7-5, Best case scenario 12-0! Most likely 9-3 and a first place tie in the legends division. I think we will beat MSU on the road, NE and OSU at home. We may lose close games at home against ND and to NU on the road, and probably in an upset to a conference team.