Big 10 Bowl Projections

Submitted by jamiemac on November 12th, 2008 at 10:22 AM

Just to get some conversation going....i thought I would post the latest bowl projections from CFN for the Big 10 schools....if these are the matchups, how do you think the Big 10 would do?

Motor City: Illinois vs CMU
Champ Sports: Wisco vs Miami Florida
Alamo: Minnesota vs Nebraska
Insight: Northwestern vs Kansas
Outback: Iowa vs South Carolina
Capital One: Michigan St vs Georgia
Rose: Penn St vs USC
Sugar: Ohio State vs Alabama

Would USC-Penn St be closer at all than last year's Rose Bowl or even this year's USC-OSU game....PSU had a hard time finding the end zone in Iowa City. It will be even harder in Pasadena with USC's D.

I like Iowa. I think MSU would do better than expected against UGA.....and, actually, OSU will play Bama a lot closer than there last two bowl games vs SEC foes. All three I would take against the spread and can win those games outright.

Minny and NW would get killed. Illinois could not beat Western on Saturday and CMU is better. But, that would actually be a fun game.

Wisco always plays better in bowl games than people expect, so I like their chances against the Baby Canes.

Any thoughts?

Comments

jamiemac

November 12th, 2008 at 10:42 AM ^

I dont have a problem with then always playing in the Rose Bowl.....but, I'd like to see them import an SEC or top flight Big 12 team this year....or, as you suggest, export USC to a different bowl game for those purposed.

The whole USC vs SEC debate irks me.....i am tired of it....i want to see a game between USC and a top end SEC team just so someone's side can have some evidence.

NYWolverine

November 12th, 2008 at 11:32 AM ^

Dude, the Pac-10 is a crap division, and USC has a huge recruiting draw precisely because they CAN play weak opponents every year with the best talent and then play in a big time bowl game AT HOME. I mean, that's USC in a nutshell isn't it?

Carroll to recruits: "We have the coaching to beat the hell out of Cal and Oregon every year, other than those two teams we basically have no competition. Every year tho, idiots like OSU and ND will come TO US with their tired offenses and make us look good. Then, assuming we win out like we should, we play again, IN OUR BACKYARD, for a national championship. And one of you will probably stand to win or be up for a Heisman because of it. What do you say?"

goody

November 12th, 2008 at 11:00 AM ^

to get knocked down a bowl across the board. Let PSU go to the Rose Bowl, which if Oregon state wins out will go to, and let tOSU go to the Capital One Bowl and so forth.

Doing this would give all Big Ten(11) teams a better showing.

jamiemac

November 12th, 2008 at 11:05 AM ^

......then we should be cheering for either IU or MSU to beat PSU. That would knock PSU out of the BCS and I do not think a MSU win will elevate them into that status.

...Or for OSU to lose to either Illini or UM.

If I had to pick, I know which one of the above outcomes I would like to see!!!

But, if OSU or PSU can find a way to lose once more, then only one Big 10 will likely get into the BCS. But, a 10-2 OSU team and a 11-1 PSU team both will get big money bowl bids.

MI Expat NY

November 12th, 2008 at 11:56 AM ^

Based on BCS rules, hard to imagine two big 10 teams NOT going... 10 spots, no conference can have more than 2 teams.

Give SEC and Big 12 there two, one each for pac 10, acc, big east, B10 and non-bcs brings you up to 9 spots. The only way the 10th spot is not a B10 team is if Oregon St. wins out and gets the automatic qualifier.

jamiemac

November 12th, 2008 at 12:09 PM ^

I agree with the math you just laid out. In my own projection Diary back in August, I had two Big 10 teams in using the exact same logic you just did.

We're only speculating on what it would take to knock a Big 10 team out.

If PSU or OSU lose once more, maybe that does open the door for MSU, if they are the ones pulling the PSU upset.

One thing we're overlooking, though, is the possibility of both Utah and Boise going to the BCS. I think if OSU or PSU falters down the stretch, it could open the door for both mid majors.

The Oregon St storyline is worth following. They close with Cal, at Arizona, Oregon. If they win out, its Roses. Bad news, we might get a PSU-Oregon St rematch. Good news, USC gets shipped out to play an Alabama/Florida or Texas/Texas T/OU.

MI Expat NY

November 12th, 2008 at 3:12 PM ^

While possible, it's unlikely that two non-BCS teams will get inites. BCS bowls are only required to take one non-bcs team even if more than one meets the criteria.

I also think that even if PSU or OSU were to lose again they will still stand a good chance of getting a BCS selection. I think Stewart Mandel mentioned this in his mailbag concerning Notre Dame, and while I disagree with him most of the time, he's spot on here, in these economic conditions, bowls are going to pick schools guaranteed to travel. I don't think there's a potential BCS at large out there that could travel like either of our B10 brethren.

How would the Big 10 not get two spots? First, if Oregon St. wins out, obviously. Second, if (when?!?) we beat Ohio St., they might fall out of the top 14 of the BCS standings which is the cutoff for selecting an at large BCS team.

formerlyanonymous

November 12th, 2008 at 2:30 PM ^

I really think there will be 2 PAC10 teams and a non-BCS conference team in the BCS this year.

MNC: OU vs UF
Rose: OSU vs OSU
Fiesta: TT vs BigEast Team Du'jour
Sugar: BAMA vs Utah/Independent Du'jour
Orange: ACC Team Du'jour vs USC

OU, TT, and UT are interchangeable pending next week's game. Same for UF/Bama until the SEC Champ game.

shorts

November 12th, 2008 at 2:54 PM ^

I'm confused as to how you have Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. If Penn State wins out, they will go, and if Michigan State beats Penn State, the Spartans go.

The only way the Buckeyes can go is if they win out AND Penn State loses to Indiana, then beats Michigan State. I think that's a pretty unlikely scenario ...

WolvinLA

November 12th, 2008 at 3:04 PM ^

Wrong. If MSU beats PSU then Ohio State goes, unless they lose again. Assuming MSU loses to PSU, PSU and OSU are tied for the conference lead, but PSU has the tie-breaker (head to head). If MSU wins, then MSU and OSU would be tied for the lead, with OSU having the tie-breaker. MSU no longer controls their own destiny, they need OSU to lose again. Maybe we can help them?

shorts

November 12th, 2008 at 10:20 PM ^

Yeah, my bad. I forgot that if Penn State loses again, it would no longer be a 3-way tie, in which case Spartans would go to the Rose Bowl. So I suppose it's possible that the Buckeyes, could get in, although I still find it pretty unlikely that Sparty beats Penn State.