Benchmark for Successful 2012 season
Well the board is slow and there really has not been much talk about football lately so wanted to hear some thoughts about the upcoming season.
What will be the Benchmark for a great season as far as wins are concerned? 9 wins is what most believe to be considered a successful year for Michigan.
http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2012/7/3/3134381/2012-michigan-wo…
An 11 win season will be tough this year considering the strength of schedule. With the potential to play 5 top 25 teams and 4 of those away from Ann Arbor, losses may be all but inevitable. What do you believe to be the key factors in a successful season? How would you rank the importance of goals listed below.
1) Win B1G championship
2) Beat sparty
3) Beat Ohio
4) Beat Alabama
5) Beat Notre Dame
I believe that regardless of wins/losses to our rivals and Alabama, a B1G championship has to be the big goal. I feel that sparty is a must win game over all of the other games because of obvious implications and protecting our home-field. Beating Ohio in Urban's first year would be huge as well. Would you be happy if we lost to Sparty, OSU, and Alabama and still won the big ten?
Hmmm. I don't think I'd call 2 winning seasons in a row "consistent" or "solid". That might be a big deal by MSU standards I guess. They're 1 and 4 in bowls games under their current coach and have still never even played in a BCS bowl, much less won one, as Hoke did his first year.
I see no reason to expect Sparty to be a bigger impediment to us winning the Legends division than Nebraska in the coming years.
Even if we lose to both Alabama and Notre Dame, the season can be successful.
1. Win Legends
2. Beat OSU and/or MSU
I agree. Beating 'bama would be nice, but nobody expects us to. Losing by two TDs is not going to hurt us too much reputation wise. ND is usually a toss up game, and I expect even if we lose it'll be close. ND is due statistically, so this again won't hurt too much.
If we then went on to beat two of Sparty, Nebraska, and Ohio, win the legends and the B1G championship game, we'd go to the Rose Bowl. Hoke would have guided us to a 11-3 or 10-4 season with two consecutive BCS appearances. The commentators would be saying that this means Michigan is back, and it would help recruiting enormously.
On the other hand, if we beat 'bama and ND, but then faded in the B1G, there'd be no end to the RichRod early start-late fade meme, and nobody would be talking about us come bowl time. Or worse, they'd say things like, "they had those great wins over alabama and ND, but then fell apart late in the season." The tone would be of disappointment and missed expectations.
Just don't get blown out by 'bama and ND, win the legends and the B1G championship game, and don't get embarresed in the Rose Bowl, and that would be considered a good season in my book.
That said, I'll be flying to Dallas for the 'bama game, and it'll be the only one I get to attend, so winning that one would probably give me a memory that would last a hell of a lot longer than not ending the Sparty losing streak. Sigh.
Winning the division always comes first, in my mind.
After that, I have to say beating Ohio. Sure, MSU has a streak against us, but showing Urban Meyer who's in charge is more important.
After that, beating MSU, and then the non-conference games.
Beating Alabama would be great, but winning the BIG and heading to a Rose Bowl would also do wonders for our national reputation.
Assuming winning the B1G Championship is a given as the primary goal:
1. Beat Ohio - Beating Urban in his 1st game would be huge and getting Hoke to 2-0 against Ohio would be nice to get him to a career jumpstart. MIchigan coaching careers have always been defined by this game.
2. Beat Sparty - Normally would have Notre Dame here, but Sparty winning the last 4 puts more emphasis on this game. But I would never put this game above Ohio. No one tracks career reconds against Sparty like they do for the Ohio game, and this game really only moves the needle in the state and not nationally.
3. Beat ND - Winning at ND in a primetime night game after winning the last 3 would be sweet.
4. Beat Alabama - This game is a little lower based on expectations of where Michigan football is at. A win arguably could possibly add more to Michigan's reputation than any of the other games listed above, but a loss also would be the least damaging to fans.
One expected loss, 4 flip games (expect 2-2 there), and the possibility of one unexpected upset among our 6 expected wins, the range is 6-6 to 11-1, with 6-6 or 7-5 being disappointing, 8-4 mildly disappointing, 9-3 expected, and anything better, exciting.
Bama – L
AF – W
UMASS – W
ND – Flip
Pu – W
IL – W
MSU – Flip
Neb – Flip
Minn – W
Iowa – W
Oh – Flip
However, given the 4 game stretch vs. Sparty, that is the key game this year. To end streaks, to silence lil brothers and to reach BiG Championship games.
That is how I see it with W/L/Flips. I hate predicting a number a wins that will occur before a season even starts so when I'm asked what I think how UM will do by my non-UM fan friends, I tell then what you just said is how I think the season will play out (with everything subject to upset losses or wins of course).
There is gigantic pressure to get the Sparty monkey of our backs. Probably the most pressure in years...We can no longer use any more excuses to why we've lost to them like we have in the past 4 years.
However, Ohio is the MOST important game of the season (pounds fist)
They have been better than us the last couple years, but so were most teams in the Big Ten. I don't see that staying the same for much longer with the job our coaches are doing and the way we are recruiting.
But nationally, this game does not have the same implications like Ohio or Notre Dame.
1) Win the B1G Championship - I believe that this is the stated primary goal per Hoke in a few interviews this year, and I wouldn't necessarily disagree.
2) Beat Ohio - although I would love to see MSU made quiet this year, this game always has loomed a little larger for me. I do, however, understand that beating MSU is an important progressive step in the process and would help us greatly in our division.
3) Beat Sparty - the streak needs to stop at four games. I will say that, this year, it almost seems like this game is 2a, but for national prominence and image, Ohio always seemed more important to me.
4) Beat ND - as much as we like to make fun of Grimace and the extracurricular exploits of his team, he manages to field a fairly decent team by the numbers, so while I would have to put up with crap from a few people in my office, I can live either way with ND this year, but this one is still very winnable despite being in South Bend and at night.
5) Beat Alabama - to me, this is the one game on the schedule where I could really say, "If we win, that's incredible to the point of magical, but if we lose, it doesn't necessarily do a lot of damage to us either." We go to JerryWorld the decided underdog, but I do think we can give them a good game all the same, and showing that the SEC is not invulnerable would be a definite bonus.
Beat Alabama is #1 for me. Going down to Dallas and taking out an "SEC power" would be a culture changing win. Win that game and we're immediately included in any "who's #1?" conversation, and I'd bet the momentum from winning that game would carry on throughout the season. Michigan plays Michigan State, Ohio State, and Notre Dame every year, and winning 2/3 or 3/3 of those games would be great, but that wouldn't change our perception on the national scale. We'd have to go to the Rose Bowl and beat USC or Oregon to do that.
Get that dump azz back to the farm.
As many games as Sparty wins in a row, they will never make commercials like this about the in-state rivalry.
The irony here is forgetting why the Ohio rivalry is important in the first place. It's important becuase one of those teams is almost always in the hunt to win the B1G. As the last game, we become the last hurdle for each other. Some years, it's winner take all. Other's it's winner spoils the season for the loser, BECAUSE the lose cost them the B1G.
The Big Ten Championship is THE prize, that's why the rivalry is so intense.
So going 1-11 is ok as long as we beat Ohio?
while managing to lose all its other games, the universe will tear itself apart.
...I'm inclined to believe you
Don't just win - BLOW OUT Michigan State.
BUT, you have to look long term. It is always more important to beat Ohio State.
If we lose to MSU this year it would really suck. As I said I feel your pain. 5 years in a row is just a tough pill to swallow.
If we win at the Shoe however you will forget all about it in a millisecond. And so will everyone else in the country except Spartan fans. The long term shockwaves of beating OSU 2 years in a row and in the first year of Urban Meyer's tenure would be huge. Remember this year the OSU game is their superbowl. They can't win any titles or go to any bowls. Though this game is always number 1 on their list its definitely the only thing they are focused on this year.
Shaping perception is a very quick action in todays media. Thanks to 24/7 spin doctors on the internet and at the biggest outlet ESPN it's damn near instant.
They know all the background and what tidbits that people will bite at. Perception would be Urban can't beat Michigan. He would be 0-2. He would have failed at what was the only game that matters next year in Ohio. They will start to eat him. Especially knowing they are going to play at The Big House in 2013. Also knowing we have the #1 recruiting class by consensus in America. Not that the class matters next year, but to the masses it does. You can see the picture I am trying to paint.
MSU is but a passing footnote and too many people on this board do not realize it. We are draining the life blood out of them as we type on this board. Sure Dantonio has righted the ship for them in the sense that they no longer are losing to the Indiana's of the world and they are finally steady. But ultimately look at the last few years for that program. Everything has went right for them. Scheduling, UM's troubles of every variety, trick plays, hail marys, other teams troubles etc etc etc.. And yet they still haven't even won a Rosebowl. Call me a homer but MSU has seen it's peak and it slowly going to level out from here on. Just have patience. If I were a betting man and Dantonio actually coaches another 10 years, don't be surprised to see him retire sub .500 against UM.
Personally I do not think they win this year. They cannot use the same damn game plan 3 years in a row because this coaching staff will actually be prepared for it. Add that to the fact that we will be at home, have almost the entire D returning and MSU replaces almost everything on offense that was important and the smart money is on the good guys.
Sure we lost Mike Martin, RVB.. Didn't they lose Worthy?... He was the difference maker in that game. To me that is a wash in the unknown defensive questions.
OSU is and always will be the most important game of the year no matter what other team is getting under our skin as fans. Only 2 teams truly represent this conference on a national level. Who wins out of those 2 teams is always gets some added benefits. Right now Michigan can really use those to keep this awesome momentum flowing forward.
Beat OHIO.
Play in the Rose Bowl or the National Championship. Anything else is a disappointment.
Any combination of teams that make up the losses will be ok in my book
1) If it's Sparty & Neb, that will probably mean that we won't go to Indy but we would've beaten Bama, ND, and Ohio
2) If it's Bama and ND, Michigan's undefeated in conf play
3) 1 OOC & 1 Big Ten = A trip to the B1G Championship game
4) Losses to any other opponents on the schedule = It'll suck, but will mean that Michigan won the big games
As a Columbus resident, the priority is:
1) Beat Ohio State
2) Beat Ohio State
3) Beat Ohio State
4) Beat Ohio State
5-1,999,998) You get the idea
1,999,999) Put on sunglasses so I can brave the dazzling brilliance of Denard's luminescent smile and approach him to see if instead of the 'we gonna eat' celebration, he sticks it to the Horseshoe's fans with a DX-style crotch chop after scoring his 48th touchdown
2,000,000) Win the rest of the games
Just Win ~ Charles Woodson
to Sparty really stings, particularly the face-punching helmet-twisting way in which they did it last year. It forever moved them from little brother to trailer trash in my eyes.
However, as others have said; we need to beat Ohio for recruiting, for the national spotlight, and to prevent the coronation of King Urban (I guess Pope is more accurate).
Sparty is a whisker behind at # 2 as a priority.
As long as we play hard, and are not embarassed in any way I have no problem with a loss to the semi-pro defending national champions of Alabama.
Notre Dame? They're going to have so many loses this season they won't even notice another to us. Honestly, we've dong punched/soul crushed them so many times in the last couple of years I think we should just forfeit that game out of pity.
I would have to say 9 wins would be a successful season this year. But in order of importance:
(1) Beat Ohio
(2) Beat State
(3) Do those two and we have a very good chance on winning the B1G
(4) Beat Notre Dame
(5) Beat Alabama
I would love to beat Alabama, but as Coach Hoke always says, winning the B1G is the main goal each year. If we beat Ohio and State, we will be right there. I also agree about welcoming Meyer with a loss for his first time being the head coach of Ohio in The Game.
I would view this season as a success if we beat Michigan State and Ohio. If that happens, I don't care how many wins we have. Obviously enough, if you're good enough to beat them, you're also good enough to win a bunch of your games.
I simply don't care quite as much about the Big 10 championship this year. And of course I want to beat Alabama and ND, but I'd gladly lose to both if it meant wins against State & Ohio. However, things don't work that way.
Thinking about the season though, it is veryt significant to me HOW Michigan plays. If we are competitive and play hard to the end, well, I can live with some losses. That's the way the ball bounces. But I don't want Michigan to ever quit in a game.
I had to step away (baby playing in the kitty's water bowl) could you repeat that?
I would view this season as a success if we beat Michigan State and Ohio. If that happens, I don't care how many wins we have. Obviously enough, if you're good enough to beat them, you're also good enough to win a bunch of your games.
I simply don't care quite as much about the Big 10 championship this year. And of course I want to beat Alabama and ND, but I'd gladly lose to both if it meant wins against State & Ohio. However, things don't work that way.
Thinking about the season though, it is veryt significant to me HOW Michigan plays. If we are competitive and play hard to the end, well, I can live with some losses. That's the way the ball bounces. But I don't want Michigan to ever quit in a game.
I agree 100%.
Pasadena.
I'm really torn between priorities. #1 is clear, win the Big Ten. No disputing that. But after that, I'm not sure. I want to be a traditional UM fan and say that beating Ohio is what's most important, but its hard for me to say that this year. If we lost to Ohio this coming year, I'd be upset, but not as much as I would be for losing to MSU for a 5th consecutive year. I am sick of Dantonio's trash talk, and when we lose to MSU, its like losing to a lower life form. This is a situation where we need to focus on the little things (MSU), so we can tackle the bigger things in the future (Ohio, BTC's, etc.)
MSU is getting put back in its place on the recruiting trail. Now, it needs to be taken care of on the field. Send them back into the weeds where they belong.
To my thinking, the most important game will be Alabama.
If Michigan can somehow pull the upset, it sets the tone for the season, and gives the team a solid reason to fight for NC-type wins. But I remember how an ND loss to start the season could deflate our teams in the past. Even though Hoke does a great job of getting the team past a loss, beating Alabama would really be a milestone for Team 133.
But can it be done?
I was curious about how Auburn did against Alabama when Borges was O coordinator there, so I looked it up. He went 4-0, the last win coming against Saban in Saban's first year at Alabama.
Incidentally, Saban's record against Michigan came while he was at MSU; it stands at 2-3.
I think it's a mild offensive advantage for UM that Borges has Iron Bowl experience against Alabama and Saban, although it has to be mentioned that the 2007 Iron Bowl win was against Saban's first year team that went 6-6.
However, it's also true that Saban has gone up against Michigan when both Mattison and Hoke were assistants. And Dantonio was a former Saban assistant; no doubt Saban will be in touch and get some information on how MSU managed to bottle up Denard.
So I think the key to a win will be how muchDenard's passing has improved under Borges in Year Two. I can see Saban looking at last year's film, playing run on defense, and daring Denard to throw. If the offense plays like it did in the bowl game, it's not going to be pretty.
But if Denard can throw accurately, and make good decisions, Michigan has a good chance. Alabama's offense isn't on another level like their defense generally is. And based on what Borges said about Denard's spring, I think this might be a closer game than many people think. I like our chances.
You cannot win the BIG and lose to Sparty. With this new rejigging of the BIG, Sparty has become the must win game. OSU is the hopeful prize in the BIG Championship game, but then again you have already played them.