Beat Florida!

Submitted by Michigan Eaglet on March 30th, 2013 at 12:50 AM

Now that Florida has ended FGCU's Cinderella story, it's time to beat the Gators!

Edit: The game is on Sunday at 2:20 eastern time on CBS. Thanks to ixcuincle for that.

Comments

Farnn

March 30th, 2013 at 12:52 AM ^

Damn, was hoping to play FGCU.  Would have been a fun offensive game that I think Michigan would have matched up well in.  Going to be another grind for Michigan against Florida.

gwkrlghl

March 30th, 2013 at 12:53 AM ^

I saw it was a pretty low scoring game. Any insights? Are they the world-destroyers Kenpom thinks they are? We've all learned never to doubt the almighty Kenpom

FreddieMercuryHayes

March 30th, 2013 at 12:55 AM ^

So how do we match up with FL? I know Kenpom will take FL to win by a few points, but how bout the non-mathematical match-up? From what I gather, Kansas was actually a pretty bad march up for us, so I'm glad we got through that.

Ventilator

March 30th, 2013 at 1:13 AM ^

Florida looked pretty bad offensively in today's game. They were missing a ton of shots, even on the put-back attempts.  I think Kansas, with McLemore playing well, looked significantly better.

B-Nut-GoBlue

March 30th, 2013 at 1:39 AM ^

Florida will be another full court pressing team.  It's a different style than VCU and more similar to Louisville's full court pressure.  We have good ball-handling so that will help but it will be a bit of an issue and will slow the game down.  Again, getting stops and our own rebounds will negate that by not allowing them to set up often.  They have a couple good bigs in Patrick Young and Erik Murphy who both play well but are not Jeff Withey in height, so that's like, good.  They go 6'9 and 6'10, respectively, so are players more like our bigs.  EXCEPT, Murphy is a ~45% 3pt. shooter.  Yippee.  I'll add that I've seen them play more than a few times this year and have seen Murphy in foul trouble multiple times.  They are a different team with him on the bench.  That would be neat to see..and helpful.  Somebody tell him to dong-punch McGary for a stupid quick foul (but not too hard).

They shoot the 3 well, so one should consider Florida a bit of a jump-shooting team; all guards can stroke it from long range (adding to their good shooting center/power forward).  Their guards are Kenney Boynton, Scottie Wilbeken, and Mike Rosario.  Wilbekin heads the point mostly.  Good floor general and is adept at getting to the rack.  Rosario and especially Boynton from what I've seen are more the natural jump-shooters. Their bench players from what I've seen are soild, good players as well, Prather and Yeguette.

The defense they play is legit.  Yes they've played the SEC since January, but they are a very good defensive squad.  Again, the full court pressure they bring can be stifling, even to us at times, I'll wager.

This will be an interesting game.  KenPom I'll guess takes Florida, oh, by 3.

Michigan4Life

March 30th, 2013 at 1:35 AM ^

against teams with quality G play.  Michigan has it in spades especially Burke.  My biggest concern is if Florida is hot from 3 pt land, it'd be tough to keep up with them.  Otherwise, I think McGary will handle Young pretty well though Young is a good player, but with the emergence of McGary, I'm not as worried as I once was before the NCAA tourney.

snoopblue

March 30th, 2013 at 2:56 AM ^

Billy Donovan is a hell of a coach and has 2 titles for a reason. They really can get hot from 3 and that's really my only worry. Only thing is when they have Young and Murphy, who guards the big that McGary is not on? Morgan is solid but that ankle is still slowing him down. Maybe Horford (who IMO is just not good and a liability on both ends) could guard Murphy being that he plays on the perimeter? Biefeldt?

Going to be an interesting game. If Burke can just stay on for 3 more games that would be good.

Tater

March 30th, 2013 at 4:50 AM ^

Billy Donovan does have one more NCAA Championship than the omniscient and celebrated Tom Izzo.  His guards choked big time in their Elite Eight game last year, or they would have been a Final Four team. Worse yet, Donovan is playing the "us against the world" angle perfectly this week. 

Then again, after last night, it's become obvious that Michigan has the talent to beat anyone.

quiverfull

March 30th, 2013 at 7:38 AM ^

= Michigan victory.   respect florida but kansas was a bigger threat with their bigs, which is where teams have hurt us this year.  after what we did to VCU's press, florida can press all they want.  i like this match up way more than the kansas one.  go blue!

LSAClassOf2000

March 30th, 2013 at 8:40 AM ^

Well, the opening line is Florida -1.5, which isn't bad, and really, when you look at the matchup stats on TeamRankings (see below), considering many of the Gators' numbers were accumulated in the SEC where the games seem to be markedly less competitive, I like our chances quite a bit here. As others have mentioned, I think this is actually a better matchup for Michigan. I believe we have a better record against the Top 50 RPI too, although I don't have that in front of me. 

 
Michigan Florida
Points/Game 74.7   71.8
Avg Score Margin +11.7   +18.1
Assists/Game 14.3   14.6
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.3   35.2
Effective FG % 54.6%   55.6%
Off Rebound % 30.2%   33.8%
FTA/FGA 0.279   0.311
Turnover % 12.4%   15.0%
Opp Points/Game 63.1   53.7
Opp Effective FG % 48.1%   42.9%
Off Rebounds/Gm 9.0   9.6
Def Rebounds/Gm 23.0   22.5
Blocks/Game 2.7   3.2
Steals/Game 6.1   7.2
Personal Fouls/Gm 12.7   14.1

 

goblue1213

March 30th, 2013 at 9:57 AM ^

I keep hearing that Michigan lives and dies by the 3. And in the comments above a couple people have mentioned being worried if Florida heats up from 3. Lets not forget: we shot 30% against VCU and won by 25 and 34% against Kansas. We shoot 38.3% on the year as a team and Florida is at 38.2%. So our shooters are as good as there's. We hit 45% against South Dakota. If we can shoot like that tomorrow, or even at 40%, we should feel pretty comfortable. It should be a hell of a game, and I think we match up well against them. I'll say, Michigan by 5. Go BLUE!!

Generic MGoBlogger

March 30th, 2013 at 10:18 AM ^

on offense can be dangerous, but on defense, they struggle against good guard play. If we can light up the transition game and limit them at the three point line, we have a great shot at beating them.

UM Fan in Nashville

March 30th, 2013 at 11:45 AM ^

I really like our matchup with these guys.   The only advantage I can see is Murphy vs GRIII.   I think our bigs can hang with Patric Young (as long as we box out).  But, I don't see a ton of athleticism out of Murphy, he just plays sound bball.   If GRIII can find his defensive rhythm throuh his athleticism, I think we can cruise by.   

Hit the open shots they give us, get the defensive rebounds (limit their offensive rebounds, they thrive off of those) and a few offensive rebounds and I think we can win by 10 points.