BCS simplified (Take 2)

Submitted by orobs on November 27th, 2011 at 9:14 PM

EDIT:  First off, a lot of people are saying Michigan only needs to be in the top 18, but this is incorrect:

 

 

"if fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14"

 

By this rule, a Big 12 team gets chosen first.  

 

So, Michigan needs to be in the top 14, end of story.

 

ESSENTIAL:

 

LSU over Georgia

 

OR 

 

Southern Miss over Houston (houston will, most likely,  drop below michigan if this happens..  It will also free up another BCS at large spot, so Michigan would still get an at large bid with a georgia win)

 

If both of these happen, Michigan is all but guaranteed in the BCS.  If neither happens, michigan is 100% out.

 

IF only one happens, and Baylor jumps Michigan (which is a definite possibility if they beat Texas), Michigan will need more help to move from 15th to 14th in the form of:

 

- Ok state over Oklahoma

OR

- Iowa State over Kansas State

OR

- UCLA over Oregon

OR

- New Mexico over Boise

 

(also, Michigan jumping the B1G championship loser is a near-certainty, so i'm not too worried about the margin of victory in that game)

 

A Simplified (and only realistic) Rooting guide is:

- LSU

and one of:

- Texas over Baylor

OR

- Oklahoma State over Oklahoma

 

 

Comments

Muttley

November 27th, 2011 at 10:04 PM ^

to have dropped like a brick below us.  Hard to believe, but the #3 Coaches Poll Hokies HAVE NOT BEATEN A PRESENTLY RANKED TEAM ALL YEAR.  Which shows in their 11-1 #10 computer rankings.

Of course, the voters would have had to be paying attention.

I would imagine that we would overtake an 11-2 VT in the computers.  But no way in the humans.  Unless Clemson absolutely annihilates/embarrasses VT AND the voters inspect VT's resume.

Muttley

November 27th, 2011 at 10:10 PM ^

 

DATE OPPONENT RESULT/TIME
Sat, Sept 3
Sat, Sept 10
Sat, Sept 17
Sat, Sept 24
Sat, Oct 1
Sat, Oct 8
Sat, Oct 15
Sat, Oct 22
Sat, Oct 29
Thu, Nov 10
Thu, Nov 17
Sat, Nov 26
Sat, Dec 3 8:00 PM ET ESPN ESPN 3

 

JT4104

November 27th, 2011 at 9:41 PM ^

Arkansas has ZERO change of sniffing the BCS. Bama is a lock and from the way they talk LSU is also a lock no matter what. The only other sec team that can get in is Georgia if they upset LSU and then would get the auto bid as sec champ...other than that the sec will only get 2.

DaBigDaddy

November 27th, 2011 at 9:43 PM ^

At this point I would say anything is possible, and we don't want that to happen. So let's not rule out the chances of Clemson and Baylor jump us. Michigans BEST bet right now is LSU beats Georgia, Okst beats OK, and either MSU beats Wisc/Wisc beats MSU by Atleast two TDs!

ek43

November 27th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^

Wait a sec, if Michigan doesn't get in the top 14, isn't there still a chance we make it to a BCS bowl?
<br>If only, let's say, 9 of the top 14 teams are eligible for a BCS bowl because of the 2 per conference rule then wouldn't we be the next choice at #15?

mfan_in_ohio

November 27th, 2011 at 10:08 PM ^

In that situation, if there are not enough eligible teams, it then falls to teams in the top 18.  However, if there are enough eligible teams, those teams HAVE to get picked.  So Boise State would get forced into a BCS bowl before they could take a #15 Michigan.

For there not to be enough eligible teams, there would have to be a total of 9 Big 12/SEC teams in the top 14.  There will be 4 SEC teams (LSU, Bama, Arkansas, South Carolina) and 4 Big 12 teams at most. (Oklahoma, Ok. State, Kansas State, and Baylor).  Two from each conference can't go to a bowl, leaving ten teams for ten BCS spots.  I suppose if UCLA beats Oregon but Oregon stays in the top 14, or if Georgia beats LSU so bad they drop to 3rd... but those scenarios probably aren't possible. 

lukebunge131313

November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^

I'm not convinced that a Georgia loss puts Michigan in the top 14. If it is, let's say, a 14-21 point victory I think Georgia may stay ahead of Michigan. As of right now it is a .10000 difference which equates to about 2 to 3 poll positions. Losing to LSU with a perfect 1.000 BCS rating is not like losing at all if its close. So for Michigan to go to crack the top 14 it needs to be a blow out. 

mfan_in_ohio

November 27th, 2011 at 10:38 PM ^

Whenever a team loses, even if it is to the #1 team, they get dinged at least a couple spots in the polls.  Alabama didn't stay at #2 when they lost to LSU, even though it was in OT.  I think they went down to #4.  Absent an overtime defeat, they should drop a couple spots in the human polls.  We are basically even in the computers (one spot behind Georgia).  As long as they drop past us in the human polls, we pass them overall.

JDog72

November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^

Just read this from Mark Schlabach at ESPN.

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=ncfnation&id=54347

The No. 15 Badgers play No. 13 Michigan State in the inaugural Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis on Saturday. The losing team figures to drop out of the top 14 of the BCS standings, which would leave the winner as the only Big Ten team ranked in the top 14.

THE IMPORTANT PART:

Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.

madtadder

November 27th, 2011 at 10:15 PM ^

What!? ESPN incorrect with facts!? Unthinkable! 

For what it's worth, Gorgeous is right. That provision only kicks in if the bowls can't find the required number of teams in the top 14.