BCS CHANCES with a OSU win

Submitted by _DG7_goblue on November 19th, 2011 at 6:06 PM

Mod Edit: The original post was a mess, but is still a valid question.

If Michigan beats OSU, do they make a BCS game? I say yes. [zl]

Comments

Asgardian

November 19th, 2011 at 10:38 PM ^

I have to disagree with you on jumping a 2 loss OK State, Oklahoma, Oregon, or Stanford. Those teams have been in the Top 10 all year, I don't see us passing any of them if they both have 2 or fewer losses, even if it's the last game of the year (esp. if the loss comes at the hands of one of the others aka OK vs OK State).

How I see it:

1. LSU
2. Alabama (Or Arkansas, but assuming 2 SEC teams)
3. Oklahoma State
4. Oklahoma
5. Oregon
6. Stanford
7. Wisco/PSU/MSU (Big Ten Champ, other two will have 3 losses) 8. Clemson/VA Tech (ACC Champ, if Clemson is loser they have 3, if VaTech they have 2)
9. Louisville, Rutgers, Cincy, WVU, Pitt (Big East Champ, others are yucky)
10. Houston / Boise State

Things to root for / going on right now:

1. Beat Ohio

2. Oklahoma to lose two of three to Baylor (now), Iowa State, & Oklahoma State (which would give them three losses). Also... it would help if K State loses to Texas (now) or Iowa State, since they are also a two loss Big 12 team ahead of us if Oklahoma falls.

3. Oregon to lose to USC (now) & Oregon State (which would give them three losses).

4. Stanford to lose to Cal (tonight) & Notre Dame (which would give them three losses).

5. In Theory:

Houston could lose to Tulsa next Friday (BTW, Tulsa is 8-3 with losses against OK, OK State, and Boise State; So VERY possible IMO.)

If TCU wins out, they win their conference (not Boise. If they do not creep into the top 16 in the BCS rankings (not top 12, thanks Big East) and Houston fell, then there would be no non-AQ conference automatic bid. And since at-large bids are mostly about the $$$, it's likely none would be chosen voluntarily.

6. Va Tech to beat Clemson, so the ACC at large has 3 losses instead of 2 and we can breathe a little easier. Although I still think we'd be chosen first over a 2 loss ACC team.

iCarly fan club

November 19th, 2011 at 11:40 PM ^

This is all great unless Sparty loses the Conference Championship.  PSU or Wisky gets the autobid and Sparty gets the at large over us.  Honestly though wouldn't you rather play Bama/Arkansas/LSU in the Cap One than Okie State in the Fiesta or Sugar?  

iCarly fan club

November 19th, 2011 at 11:52 PM ^

What exactly do we need a national stage for?  We're not trying to build a program.  We're not desparate for exposure.  If we were we would be playing on Thursday nights like the entire ACC and Big Least are desparate to do.  Everyone already knows the Michigan brand.  I want to play the best team possible.

justingoblue

November 20th, 2011 at 12:44 AM ^

A conference champion loser rarely gets into the BCS (it's happened three times since 1998) and Sparty is not a team that would ever get a bid over us. There's a reason they went 11-1 last year and OSU got picked over them: they don't have a national name or big fanbase and thus don't bring in the money that the Fiesta would want.

We're in if we beat OSU, the only other team in the running is Stanford, IMO, and I think we get in over them 9/10 times.

PurpleStuff

November 20th, 2011 at 12:58 AM ^

The SEC is going to send its champion to the NCG, so the Sugar Bowl gets the first at-large pick to replace that loss.  They almost certainly will pick the next SEC team for ticket sales.  Then the Fiesta Bowl picks next (for a team to go up against the Big XII Champion) and may get to pick twice if the Big XII winner goes to the NCG.  The OSU/OU loser ain't getting in at this point (and even if 2-loss OkSU or 3-loss OU were an option they wouldn't play each other again).  The three loss B1G title game loser isn't getting in over 2-loss Michigan due to ratings and ranking.  No bowl is picking the ACC title game loser and hoping their fans will come to Phoenix (same goes for any team in the Big East).  No bowl is picking Houston/TCU if they don't have to.

If we beat OSU the Fiesta Bowl is going to pick between Stanford and Michigan (or maybe get to pick both).  They will pick Michigan.

codeBLUE11

November 20th, 2011 at 12:49 AM ^

Losers in the conference championship games very rarely get picked for BCS bowls unless they are a top 5 team or something. Just the way it works out. 

Sparty would absolutely not be picked over us for an at large if they lose the BIG championship game. They will have 3 losses, and probably not even be in the top 20. With a win next week we will be at least top 15, hopefully top ten. And we are the more attractive option over sparty anyways. 

gopoohgo

November 20th, 2011 at 1:23 AM ^

This conversation got more interesting with the night's festivities.

1) BigXII will only get one team; The loser of Bedlam will have 2 or 3 losses, and I can't see OkieState being chosen over Michigan.  

2) ACC will only get one team: Bye bye Clemson

3) Houston must lose for Michigan to have a better shot

4) Stanford may be chosen over Michigan as an at-large for the Fiesta...

Even with all the fun with #3, #4, #5, and #7 losing...we still need help.

Agree with above posters; don't give two sh*ts where we play in a bowl as long as we beat Ohio.