BCS Bowl Predictor

Submitted by BlueCE on November 13th, 2012 at 4:50 PM



Cool way to view the probabilities for each team to make each bowl game.  Makes me sad to see ND along with KSU with the highest probability to make the NC.


For us, 59% change of Capital One, 32% Outback, 9% Rose.

If we do end up in the Capital One, looks like Georgia is the likiest openent.


Much to be played though... one upset this weekend and all this changes.


But Northern Illinois 39% chance for the NC??? That does not make sense.



November 13th, 2012 at 5:32 PM ^

Thought this was really cool until I noticed the Northern Illinois thing. Obviously this needs some work. I noticed TAMU wasn't listed under the Capital One bowl at all either, which was being projected by somebody a few days ago.


November 13th, 2012 at 5:36 PM ^

doesn't Michigan still have a shot at a BCS game other than rose if we win out?  we should slip into the top 14 pretty realistcally and with so much of the SEC all up there you would tihnk we would prolly get a look over some of the other options


November 13th, 2012 at 5:45 PM ^

My brother and I, at lunch today, took a look at our BCS at-large probability, and it's not all that remote.  Things that would need to happen (and totally could), in addition to us winning out (obvi):

1. Us jumping Louisiana Tech simply by beating OSU (or them losing).
2. USC and UCLA both losing (UCLA plays SC and Stanford, SC plays UCLA and ND, winner plays Oregon.  Almost certain both teams lose at least once more).
3. Oregon State losing (they play Oregon).
4. Stanford losing (they play Oregon and UCLA)
5. Clemson losing (they play South Carolina).
6. Florida State losing (they play Florida). 
7. Texas losing (the play K-State and TCU).

In almost all of these instances, the team in question would drop below us and we need to climb 7 spots to be BCS eligible.  If Michigan is in the top-14 and a second Pac-12 or ACC team is not, we are guaranteed a bid.  This doesn't include the less likely possibilities of Nebraska losing to Wisco in the BTCG, Oklahoma losing to WVU or OK St., or Louisville blowing one of their last couple.

At this point, if we beat OSU, I'd go so far as to say we have a better chance than not of getting an at-large bid.  If we do, it will hinge on Clemson-South Carolina and if there are any Pac-12 upsets.

Mich Mash

November 13th, 2012 at 11:06 PM ^

...obviously we must win out, thus ending the regular season at 9-3.  At that point, there are two paths to a BCS bowl at-large bid:

1) Nebraska loses one game sending us to the B1G title game which we must win.  We would drop out of contention with a season-ending loss, a la MSU last year.

2) Nebraska wins out, leaving us with a 9-3 record and a little time off to watch the scenario you outlined above play out.

So my question here is: which is the more favorable situation for Michigan? Not necessarily the most desired situation, but the most favorable.  I would argue all day that I would rather have a shot at the Rose Bowl in our own hands (again a la MSU last year), but is that the safest option?  Taking our extrem fandom out of this, what would the statisticians say about Michigan's rooting interests regarding Nebraska in the final two weeks?

Is the risk of a 4th loss in the B1G title game worth the benefit of going to the Rose Bowl instead of a different BCS bowl?  I guess it would depend on how much you value the Rose Bowl versus any other BCS bowl berth.


November 14th, 2012 at 12:53 AM ^

I don't see it happening.  OK, Clemson, and someone from the SEC are gonna be the at-larges this year.

Michigan had two very ugly losses this season on a very national stage.  Getting outclassed against 'Bama and coughing up the ball 6 times against ND.  


November 14th, 2012 at 1:53 AM ^


• Okla and Texas both lose (Texas likely, Okla reasonably)

• Oregon runs the table

• LaTech loses to either of the two higher Sagarin-rated teams left

• the ESS-EEE-SEE retains its claim on six Top 14 spots

• Mich moves into the Top 14 (replacing Stanf/Okla)

• either Louisville or Rutgers moves into the Top 14,     (replacing Stanf/Okla)

then there will be three teams elgible for the three at-large spots, and the BCS will be stuck with us (provided we win out).


November 14th, 2012 at 2:00 AM ^


BCS At-Large Sorting
RK TEAMs (BcsRank) Record
1 Kansas State (1)
2 Oregon (2) 10-0
3 Notre Dame (3) 10-0
4 Alabama (4) 9-1
5 Florida State (10) 9-1
6 Nebraska (14) 8-2
7 Louisville (19) 9-1
8 UGA(5)9-1 Fla(6)9-1 LSU(7)8-2 UTAM(8)8-2 SCar(9)8-2
9 Clemson (11) 9-1
t10 Okla(12)7-2
t10 Stanf(13)8-2 OrSt(16)7-2 UCLA(17)8-2 USC(18)7-3
12 La Tech (20) 9-1
13 Michigan (21) 7-3
14 Rutgers (22) 8-1
15 Texas Tech (23) 7-3
16 Okla St (24)6-3
17 Washington (25)6-4


At present, there are

    •    7 Auto-qualifiers    

    • + 4 Top 14 BCS but not Top 2 Conf    

    • - 1 Non-Top 14 Auto-qualifier (Louisville)    

    • = 10 non-at-large Top 14 spots taken

or more simply, there are four teams presently elgible for the three at-large spots.


As to us moving up, LaTech finishes with Utah St & San Jose St,

both ranked ahead of LaTech in the Sagarin poll

   • LaTech 52 Predictor, 73.50, 9-1

    • UtahSt 21 Predictor, 83.19, 8-2

    • SanJSt 32 Predictor, 78.47, 8-2


• If Oregon wins out, all four in the PAC-10 logjam take a loss


• I think the next most likely spot to open would come    

   from both the Okla & Texas pair losing

Oklahoma Sooners 7-2
Sat, Nov 17 @West Virginia
Sat, Nov 24 vs #24 Oklahoma St
Sat, Dec 1 @TCU


Texas Longhorns 7-2
Thu, Nov 22 vs TCU
Sat, Dec 1 @ #1 Kansas St

• And while Florida St & Clemson do play Florida and S. Carolina, respectively, they each only have one loss. So I think they'd also have to lose to Maryland and NC State, respectively.

•  Finally, an underdog stealing an AQ spot in the PAC-10 (e.g. USC) or ACC (e.g. Miami)   would just push Oregon or Florida St into an at-large spot. (The B12 doesn't have a championship game.)


November 13th, 2012 at 6:13 PM ^

Funny thing - if we play in the Citrus Bowl, we'd be playing the #3 SEC team, certainly a top-10 team.  If we make a BCS bowl, our opponent options are most likely Louisville, Florida St or the #2 SEC team (who will be only negligibly better than the #3 SEC team).