BBrown: Predicting The Hand Decision

Submitted by Brandon Brown on November 14th, 2013 at 2:29 PM

I know there is already a forum topic about Hand's commitment but this is a little bit different. A few weeks back I posted a forum about "Predicting Commitments" and cited the responses that I get from recruits as a pretty good barometer for how they are feeling as their decisions near. Unfortunately, that method has held true again.

Granted my Crystal Ball pick for Hand on 247 was Michigan, but I should've went with my unfortunate personal evidence as opposed to my homerness and public perception. I wanted Hand at Michigan badly, as I'm sure every one who comes to this site did. It seemed like Michigan was where he was going. Experts all around the country had predicted him to choose the Wolverines. His high school coach talked to me very regularly.......but Da'Shawn himself didn't.

Da'Shawn kept a lot to himself obviously and I convinced myself that he was simply being private in not talking to me anymore. In August he and I talked on the phone for a long time. For a month or so after our long interview he and I would text occoasionally just to see what was going on with his recruitment. Then it stopped. He wouldn't respond anymore and I just assumed (hoped) that it was because he was shutting down the interview process a little bit as his decision date neared. It turns out that there was a little more to it than that.

Hand chose Alabama and honestly, I can't really say that I blame him. Hindsight of course is always 20/20 but looking back now, I should've seen this coming. I'm not saying I knew anything for sure because I didn't. Clearly most people didn't. But over the last month or so, Da'Shawn wouldn't respond to me anymore and that ended up being quite telling.

I am going to do my absolute best from now on to use only my head and not my heart, and also to try and not be influenced by other guys that really know what they are talking about. That is a very hard thing to do when you have guys like Tom, Steve Lorenz, Mike Farrell, Clint Brewster, Steve Wiltfong, JC Shurburtt, Eleven Warriors guys, and many, many more all predicting Hand to choose Michigan.

Good luck to Da'Shawn.

 

Comments

Brandon Brown

November 14th, 2013 at 2:50 PM ^

I think you need to read it again. I was saying that I had a feeling, but I was completely wrong....not sure how I'm patting myself on the back with that explanation.

No one who covers or follows recruiting is ever going to get them ALL right, that's obvious, but really this observation I've made has been pretty accurate so far. I just didn't want to believe it with Hand.

StateStreetBlue

November 14th, 2013 at 3:56 PM ^

but it's not a whole fucking new thread.  That's the point.  This whole thread you started was dumb - "Well I was right about my theory with kids talking to me, but I didn't listen to my theory this time around.  I'll do better next time guys."

And you still haven't given your thoughts as to why he went quiet and chose Bama, which would have been a 100% better topic to discuss.

Edit: I'd like to say that I appreciate what BB does.  And he has been right in the past (most of the time).  This downward sipral of MGoBlog is sickening though and threads like this don't add anything.  Look how many "appreciation" threads there are.  Hell, there is  an "appreciation of the Appreciation Appreciation thread) there.

ChuckieWoodson

November 14th, 2013 at 5:24 PM ^

99% of people here understand your post and it makes sense.  There will always be buttholes like SSB so what can you do.

Also tough as well since everyone else had him coming here as well.  To me, that's what hurts the most.  At least with others that we "lost" it felt like it was truly 50/50 and we just ended up on the wrong side of it.  This time it felt like it was 90/10.

mgobaran

November 14th, 2013 at 3:12 PM ^

He wrote a post (last week?) about how he has noticed the trend of how recruits interact with him vs. if they end up at Michigan. 

It makes sense. A kid who think he is going to M is going to talk to M reporters more, and other schools less so they don't get anyone's hopes up. And will stop talking to M reporters if they don't think they are going to come here. 

BBrown is just using this recruitment and Hand's decision to provide a further example to his theory. 

The whole "doesn't add anything to the board" thing is just way off base. He is MGoBlog's recruiting reporter. He wants to be able to give us better insight on recruits and where they might end up. And is basically stating he needs to not let his own fandom get in the way. 

umumum

November 14th, 2013 at 3:18 PM ^

 a mea culpa--I was technically wrong (with my heart)--but believe me I was right (in my head)--and my methodology, which, as I understand it is: good if they talk with me and bad if they don't.  I'm still a little creeped out that you call them at all--and certainly would be if I was on the receiving end.

umumum

November 14th, 2013 at 3:52 PM ^

between a coach or someone officially representing a college (regardless of age) contacting a recruit (the very definition of recruiting) and "some guy" doing the same thing, then I suspect you don't know how it is supposed to work.  He ain't a coach, an official recruiter, a sportswriter or even a sports blogger.  If he has, in fact, been "hired" by Brian to do so on behalf of MGoBlog, I stand partially corrected--though I question the decision to do so, and he fails the journalistic smell test if he lets his heart control his head--it is the latter he would presumably be hired to do. Frankly, I think almost all of his postings are his "feelings" based upon how a recruit responds to him--facts, not so much.  And, who puts their effing name in the title of their post? 

His Dudeness

November 14th, 2013 at 3:20 PM ^

Agree with SS Blue.

Look, man all due respect - which not sure much is due , but we just lost out on the #1 recruit in the country to who else but that team that wins funcking everything anyway and would have been just fine without Hand.

Look man the last time we were good was in 2006 . Bo died. The game happened. We fucked about for a bit and hired RR which went poorly. We flung the baby out with the bathwater and tried to hire a few different people before landing on a coach (heart of gold), but without a coaching record of great success. He has never coached in a BCS game.

Now this coach looks to be backsliding. Hell I was a completely different person with completely different friends in a completely different state the last time Michigan was even regarded as "good." and that year we didn't win shit.

So you want some sort of "ahh gee, guy. It's ok you went with EVERYONE who gets paid to do whatever it is you do and think Hand would chose Michigan. You'll do better next time." Well save it. I can only speak for myself, but I'm tired, man. I'm tired of watching this team fuck about on a football field and end up being terrible with all the talent in the world.

Just keep doing what you're doing, but for the love of god dont apologize for it. It's hard to draw sympathy from a group who have just had their collective junk smashed into tiny bits.

alum96

November 14th, 2013 at 2:37 PM ^

Thanks Coach B.  Let us know if Peppers stops returning your calls.  It would be good to know in advance - partially sarcastic before people lambast me. ;)

Serious question - have you had ongoing conversation with Malik M? If so do you see a change in those conversations the past month or two?  I am getting a Treadwell feeling here.  At this point my hope is its not OSU or MSU more than it is Michigan...which is sort of sad, that its come to this...

swan flu

November 14th, 2013 at 2:39 PM ^

Dude don't beat yourself up for getting it wrong. A large majority got it wrong along with you.

Would've been awesome if he played here, but it wasn't the best place for him.

On to the next one, go blue.

DingoBlue

November 14th, 2013 at 2:43 PM ^

You allow your fandom to take impressions from others and see a bright side, and then that gets translated into your opinions and then we read it and make our own opinions based also in part on how other people are reacting to your thoughts.

Cali Wolverine

November 14th, 2013 at 2:51 PM ^

...that he would wind up there?

Wish him luck...seems like a good kid. Not sure if I buy the engineering school thing...since we have one of the best...but if I were a talented high school kid with dreams of playing in the NFL, I would go to the place with the track record to get me there.

I have never had a good feeling about McDowel from what I have read (or not read)...and your comments do not give me any hope there. :(

DrewandBlue

November 14th, 2013 at 2:57 PM ^

 

what is it that you do that puts you in a position to be contacting these kids?  Honestly, I don't know...maybe I’ve missed something.  Or, maybe you shouldn't be reaching out to these kids and eventually they figure out that responding to your inquiries is pointless. 

 

Are you a recruiting analyst?  Or, do you do this for a hobby.  I'm not trying to be rude, but seriously, who are you and what is your profession?