With the recent visit cancellation by JuJu Smith, I started thinking about how his decision didn't surprise me much. It's no secret that Cali kids are tough to even get to Ann Arbor, and near impossible to sign, but a lot of people had hopes for JuJu. Yeah his name had always been thrown around as a potential target but I never really got that vibe and I'll attempt to explain why.
In actively covering recruiting for 2 years now, I have noticed a pretty accurate way of determining whether Michigan will land a kid or not.
Usually if a kid is really receptive to me and responds back in a timely fashion all the time, and even reaches out to me, that has been a very good sign that he will choose Michigan or at least be legitimately interested throughout the process. (i.e. Chase Winovich, Drake Harris, Michael Ferns, Derrick Green, Moe Ways, etc.) All of those guys talked to me very openly and regularly and obviously we know their decisions.
On the flip side, kids that I've had a very hard time getting responses from, or kids that don't seem to have much to say, usually don't have much interest in Michigan and ultimately end up committing elsewhere, or keep Michigan hanging on, but never really have intentions of going there. (i.e. Leon McQuay, Ty Isaac, JuJu Smith, Marshon Lattimore, Laquon Treadwell.)
I do realize that McQuay, Isaac, and Treadwell all seemed to have very legitmate interest in Michigan, but I was never able to get much from them, IF I was even able to get in touch with them at all, which always gave me the vibe that they would commit elsewhere.
This is not a bulletproof theory by any means, but it has been pretty true to date. If you are curious about a recruit I'd be happy to try and respond with my "vibe" at this point in time. Just a thought I had while reading the JuJu thread.