Night_King

May 21st, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^

Awesome stuff, thanks for the share. Seems like Beilein has been recruiting all different types of players at the PG position over the last few years. I like the versatility Carton could bring.

I imagine his shooting from outside is better than Simpson’s? We know DeJulius can really shoot off the bounce and I look forward to seeing that next season.

matt D

May 21st, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^

are still the presumptive favorites at this point, as they've both included Michigan on their final lists. Both have made visits to Ann Arbor and Coach Beilein has personally watched both several times during the April live evaluation periods. I will say though, the longer that either of them take, I don't believe it favors Michigan.

njvictor

May 21st, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^

Why do you believe that the longer they take, the worse off Michigan is? I heard that Wilson was going to wait until the end of the summer to decide so he can do his due dilligence and take his visits. I'm not sure about Carton

ypsituckyboy

May 21st, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^

Interested to see if you agree with this. Your rankings seem like they skew a fair bit toward valuing athleticism over skill (since, as a general rule, skill can be developed a lot more than athleticism). To take a random guy as an example, Trevon Bluiett may have been a bit lower in your rankings than he was in Scout/247/Rivals, due to his lack of burst. He always got buckets on the AAU circuit, and has been a great college player (in line with his ranking), but his athletic limiations seem to have kept him in college longer than he otherwise would be based on production. Would you agree with that? Like, if you were a college coach, you'd recruit more like Pitino than Beilein (i.e. athletes with a higher ceiling but lower floor due to skill).

matt D

May 21st, 2018 at 2:32 PM ^

Its rare that a prospect crosses the intersection of athleticism/skill/productivity/motor/upside such as a Jaden McDaniels type............and when you do those are the likely one and dones.

I do value athleticism a ton.............but that athleticism can be mitigated or enhanced by motor. Case in point is Glenn Robinson. NBA athlete hands-down, but how often did he utlize that athletic advantage in a half-court setting? Not much. There is a distinction between open court athletes that make great highlights, but don't do much funtionally on a possession by possession basis........and athletes such as a Russell Westbrook that use that advantage on nearly every possession to impose their will on the game.

Personally, I loved Bluiett as a prospect, thought he was a perfect college prospect without necessarily being an NBA prospect. Another guy I absolutely loved a few years ago (and I was the perhaps the only that was that high on him) was Donnie Tillman............and I turned out to be right because he had a nice skill package in addition to a non-stop motor. Greg Elliott is another good athlete with a superb motor.

To answer your question with regard to the Pitino/Beilein question - I'd recruit a mixture of both. I'd likely stay away from guys that aren't great athletes and don't have the skillsets to make contributions as underclassmen (Eli Brooks likely wouldn't be on my radar, for example). I'd also stay away from guys that are decent athletes without motor, while lacking any sort of translatable skill (Ibi Watson, for example). I really like Brandon Johns and Iggy types for college............guys with college ready frames that are going to be day 1 producers, but not necessarily NBA guys. Reason being is what I call my 'return value' model. Essentially, those guys give you 2-3 years of production to match the 2-3 years that you invested in terms of recruiting them, without having to spend 2-3 years in terms of development before they can produce.

Guys like DJ Wilson represent the gray area. He gives you 8-12 good games before bolting for the league and you had to invest 2 years of development before he was playable. Is that really a good return value? Yes and no. From a production standpoint, no it isn't. From a long term standpoint it probably is, because as a coach you can point to that as an example of development that resulted in a 1st round pick. That said, I'd probably tend to stay away from those types personally because I don't think a guy like DJ will be good enough in the NBA to be noteworthy for future recruiting.

matt D

May 21st, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^

its possible. The first thing you look at is 'does this prospect have NBA measurables and athleticism' since this is what the NBA values. To that extent it is possible to sort of project on a very limited basis. Marcus Bingham is a kid that comes to mind with a similar return value to where he's probably only going to give you a year of production before bolting but will likely need 2 years of development before being a solid contributor.

Champeen

May 22nd, 2018 at 9:49 AM ^

I think DJ wilson was a great recruit/pickup for Bielien because he should have been here for 3/4 years.  What you cannot count for are players making bad decisions and leaving early when they are not ready.  DJ Wilson was not even a great college player.  Was he good?  Probably.  He showed flashes and that was enough for NBA scouts i guess.

DJ Wilson should have been here last year.  Wagner was more NBA ready than him IMO, and Wagner wasn't even ready yet.

matt D

May 22nd, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^

for leaving in retrospect. Was he ready for the NBA from a physical/athletic/skillset standpoint..........not a chance. But the reality is this - its a business decision and if a prospect is looking at guaranteed money/contract via a 1st round pick, you simply cannot turn that down.

All that to say, you simply cannot anticipate how long a recruit should be in Ann Arbor. The truth is that coaches have to proceed as if every single recruit has the potential to leave after a year or two in order to account for all possible scenarios. I think Coach Beilein has done a good job of adjusting to that over the last few years.

Mike Damone

May 21st, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^

if we could get 1) Carton at PG, 2) Weems OR Wilson OR Brooks at SF, and 3) Watts OR Girard at SG, would be a hell of a class on top of the terrific 2018 class.

Let's keep the recruiting momentum going, on top of the great seasons we have had over the last two years!

DeepBlueC

May 21st, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^

But still a long way to Signing Day. Even the guys we might get a verbal from I'm not super confident about keeping until they're really committed.

matt D

May 21st, 2018 at 3:45 PM ^

for my evaluation on him. Jalen is a good, not great prospect. I would absolutely love to pull him in, he's a day 1 producer that will likely give the program 2-3 years of production. That said, I projected him about a month ago as a 40-60 type prospect on this very board when he was a top 25/5star composite type. Since then he's fallen to #29 and I predict that slide will continue.

That isn't to say he isn't a very good nab if we do end up landing him, I'm simply saying he's not an elite prospect/#1 option type. He'd probably be last/or near last oN my board for the wings we're on.............but that is an extremely impressive board with no bad options.

As far as Coach B prioritizing, you have to understand his process. He doesn't necessarily prioritize based on talent, but rather who reciprocates interest.............its the old 'breaking through doors to play at Michigan' approach

Guy Fawkes

May 21st, 2018 at 4:10 PM ^

Based on the BALLZ lets say Michigan grabs Wilson and Carton with their 2 currently open roster spots. Who's the 3rd guy on Michigans list they would target if someone transfers or decommits? Watts?

njvictor

May 21st, 2018 at 4:17 PM ^

You descirbed Wilson as "essentially Romeo Weems minus the athleticism and game-changing defensive versatility" and while I agree with that to some degree, from what I've seen, it seems like Jalen Wilson is more skilled and advanced offensively at this point than Weems. Has Weems improved that much recently where he is more skilled than WIlson?

matt D

May 21st, 2018 at 4:28 PM ^

in terms of overall skill. Weems has a better handle and a slightly better jumpshot. Better finisher due to athleticism as well. Both very good playmakers/passers for wings. Not a huge discrepancy in skill by any means...............but the athletic gap is sizeable for sure.

Champeen

May 22nd, 2018 at 10:28 AM ^

Agree.  But i do think Wilson has better handles.  I've seen him do some nice spin moves to the rim and it is fairly graceful.  I would definitely give the handles to Wilson IMO.  He also displays better body control and is more confortable going through traffic.