Bball record in remaining games
With the win against Purdue, things look much more doable for the balance of the year. If we hold serve and win three of the remaining four home games, (Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue,) and two road games (Nebraska and Penn State,) we end with 21 wins and 10 losses. Should we steal a win against OSU, home or away, or win at Breslin, or on the road at Northwestern or Illinois, we end up with 22 wins and a better seeding. At this point, I continue to see Michigan winning 21 or 22 games. Thoughts?
January 25th, 2012 at 12:15 PM ^
I concur
January 25th, 2012 at 1:53 PM ^
Hey guys, I can't create a board post yet but some nice news came out, Novak was name done of the 10 finalists for the Lowe's Senior CLASS Award and he needs our help in voting.
http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/012512aaa.html
go here to vote:
http://www.seniorclassaward.com/vote/mens_basketball_2011-12/
January 25th, 2012 at 12:17 PM ^
That home game against Indiana is looking very important sandwiched between Ohio and MSU on the road.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:26 PM ^
Will be the point at which I finally stop worrying about whether they're gonna find a way to miss the tourney. Huge game.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:58 PM ^
I actually think Michigan could do very well against Indiana. The guys are very aware they let a golden opportunity slip by. I'm also starting to wonder if they are going to allow Horford to play. If he does come back, he makes a big difference against a team like Indiana.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:00 PM ^
Michigan is not going to miss the tournament. Regardless of what the worry warts want to say, in this B1G 3 more wins puts Michigan on the good side of the bubble. They probably dont even need one in the BTT to put them over the top. I dont want to find out, but I think they could win 3 more without Burke. I will be surprised if they dont win at least 5.
January 25th, 2012 at 6:22 PM ^
Michigan fans need to get their swag back. Betcha there ain't any Spartan fans worrying about whether they make the tourney this season.
This just in, Michigan is good. They were good last year and they are better this year. The win over Sparty was no fluke. The beatdown of Wisconsin was no fluke and if on Sunday they beat OSU, that won't be a fluke either. When the Wolverines head into Breslin to play MSU and the Spartan fans are expecting them to trounce M out of revenge for 3 straight losses, they are likely to be disappointed. MSU and M are evenly matched opponents, game should be a barn burner, with M having a fair chance to make it 4 in a row.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:18 PM ^
I suspect that we will steal one of those games against tOSU. At home, Crisler will be bouncing and I think we'll pull it out. Smotz can't shoot like this forever.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:21 PM ^
I see 22 or 23 wins. With a few lucky bounces, possibly a Big 10 regular season championship. (extremely lucky bounces)
January 25th, 2012 at 12:22 PM ^
Lose to OSU twice, at MSU, at Illinois, and drop another game they shouldn't somewhere (maybe at home versus Indiana).
January 25th, 2012 at 1:44 PM ^
I wouldn't necessarily classify Indiana as a "should win." Its absolutely doable, though, given how close Michigan played them on their court.
Other than that, I pretty much agree. 2 losses (although very close ones) against Ohio, but I think they beat them in the B1G Tournament. Just a hunch.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:16 PM ^
January 25th, 2012 at 2:31 PM ^
are the two best teams in the conference, and one is probably the best team in the country. Not sure what you want me to do about that.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:25 PM ^
With 6 wins 4 losses then a easy 1st round of the B1G tournament I see getting to 23. That should be a 5 seed.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:26 PM ^
Best case, we win all 4 at home and at Nebraska, Northwestern and PSU.
Worst case, we win 3 of 4 at home and lose one of the 3 road games above.
Unfortunately, I think it is pretty likely we lose @ Ohio and @ State.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:28 PM ^
I think Michigan will get one of those. I also think they'll take at least one of the two out of @ ILL and @ NW. This team is going to keep getting better.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:29 PM ^
we won @ state last year and we really should have blown them out of the water that last game in Ann Arbor. I think we match up very well with them and we could be able to steal one at Breslin.
As far as playing at Ohio State. I hate to say it, but we match up horribly with them and that is going to be EXTREMELY difficult. As in, we need to make a lot of 3s and spread them out.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:04 PM ^
However, with three straight losses to Michigan, I think State will be jacked to play hard, and we'll be hard pressed to win at Breslin.
Regarding Ohio, I think one of the big issues is health. Well, I guess that is always an issue for every team. Michigan is actually very thin, with no one to really back up Burke or Morgan or Hardaway. But should Sullinger go down or have back trouble again, that would make Ohio a much more winnable game.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:29 PM ^
Let's count count are eggs before they hatch.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:30 PM ^
Let's not *
January 25th, 2012 at 12:42 PM ^
I noticed that last night. Weird.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:35 PM ^
12-6 or better = ecstatic
11-7 = very happy
10-8 = not bad but wanted more
9-9 = disappointed, not irate
8-10 or worse = absolutely crushed
I think I am going to be "very happy" in the end.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:07 PM ^
How could we be anything but very happy with a record of 11 - 7 or better, especially with the changeover at point guard?
January 25th, 2012 at 12:38 PM ^
The schedule to end the year is favorable if they back their way on the bubble. The committee tends to favor bubble teams playing well over teams backing in. I don't think it will come to that. Just a thought.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:38 PM ^
You left out any wins we could pick up in the B1G tournament. I can see us getting at least 1 or 2 wins there. We might climb as high as 24 wins by tournament time.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:45 PM ^
Does anyone have an informed thought on the minimum to get into the tourney would be?
What if we finish out 4-6 and lose our opening game in the B1G tourney?
That would put us at 20-12 which seems like it could be the wrong side of the bubble line......
January 25th, 2012 at 12:46 PM ^
with wins over Wisconsin, MSU, and Memphis (I know they're not actually good but they'll be a tourney team and a top 50 RPI win) will absolutely get Michigan in from the Big 10 this year. It won't be close.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:28 PM ^
1st round loss in BTT would make us 10-9. That should seemingly be enough.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:45 PM ^
We have had the 7th toughest schedule out of 345 basketball schools he rates to date. That at least means we have played good teams in comparison to the rest of the country.
| Sun., Jan. 29 |
at No. 4 Ohio State *  |
Columbus, Ohio | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| Wed., Feb. 1 |
vs. Indiana * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| Sun., Feb. 5 |
at Michigan State * |
East Lansing, Mich. | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| Wed., Feb. 8 |
at Nebraska * |
Lincoln, Neb. | 7:30 p.m. CT |
| Sun., Feb. 12 |
vs. Illinois * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Feb. 18 |
vs. Ohio State * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| Tue., Feb. 21 |
at Northwestern * |
Evanston, Ill. | 7:00 p.m. CT |
| Sat., Feb. 25 |
vs. Purdue (2) * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| Thu., Mar. 1 |
at Illinois * |
Champaign, Ill. | 6:00 p.m. CT |
| Sun., Mar. 4 |
at Penn State * |
State College, Pa. | TBA |
Plus B1G tournament. (which you are not counting).
You are saying 5-5 or 6-4 over the last 10 games. I think we should be favored to go 7-3 over last 10 games as we should be underdogs against OSU twice and against MSU once. That would have us holding serve and winning 23 games before B1G tournament.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:54 PM ^
January 25th, 2012 at 2:10 PM ^
You see us favored at both? I don't know how we'll match up against ILL, but I think that NW is going to be a very tough game, and I'm sceptical that we'd be favored.
Regardless, the remaining record will be affected greatly by whether or not Hardaway and Smotrycz regain their form and effectiveness shooting from the outside.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:50 PM ^
at the moment i'd set the lines as such:
@OSU: bucks by 12
v IU: mich by 4
@MSU: sparty by 7
@NEB: mich by 2
v Illini: mich by 5
v OSU: bucks by 4
@NW: nw by 2
v PUR: mich by 6
@ILL: illini by 3.5
@PSU: mich by 5.5
I have us favored in 5 and dogs in 5. Winning on road in big ten is tough and home court is worth more than in some conferences. Plus Michigan's easiest opponents here on out are on the road. I don't see Michigan as double digit favorites in any game remaining and not a better than 75% chance in any remaining game.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:51 PM ^
The Schott is a tough place to play. The only team that came even within a sniff of winning there was Florida back in November. I think the conference is OSU's to lose, so if you guys win there on Sunday, it will be big in terms of the conference picture
January 25th, 2012 at 12:52 PM ^
everyone is just playing for second place. OSU's efficiency margin is absurd, and I don't think there's a tougher game on the schedule of anyone in the country than "@OSU," including @UK.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:19 PM ^
It is OSU's to lose, no doubt about that. However, they have been losing a little bit on the road, and if they continue to do that it's possible someone can sneak in and at least grab a share of the title. Realistically, I only see sparty as having a chance to do that
January 25th, 2012 at 12:52 PM ^
Getting "IN" the big dance is hardly the issue...it is getting that 5 seed or better (23 wins) that makes a difference for a tourney run. This season was a bad time to stop sniffing glue. What do you make of that?
January 25th, 2012 at 12:55 PM ^
Seeing as how we are currently in first place in the conference halfway through the season.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:01 PM ^
6-4. I see that happening, although with the way this team has been playing I wouldn't expect it to be the obvious 6-4 route (winning the non-OSU home games and PSU, NW, and NU away games). I think this team matches up well against State and that we could pull off that upset on the road. I also don't underestimate Novak and Douglass's drive to beat OSU as seniors, so that home game could be one that we pick off. If either of those wins happen, I fully expect us to have a let-down game against Nebraska or Northwestern similar to how we sucked at Iowa after beating State at home.
I think we could easily add 2 wins in the B1G tourney and come away with a 24 win season to secure a 5 seed or better. This, however, is just my pragmatic side talking. I turn on every game expecting to win each one and shock the world by winning the conference outright. Go Blue!
January 25th, 2012 at 1:03 PM ^
If we can start hitting just a couple more of our 3s, which we should considering the slumps our shooters are in, we can beat anyone.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:11 PM ^
We went 6-2 in the first stretch of the B1G schedule with the majority of our shooters in awful slumps. Imagine what we can do if we start to get hot. I'm very excited about our tournament prospects.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:32 PM ^
From your iPhone to our shooters' fingertips, let it be done!
January 25th, 2012 at 1:04 PM ^
6-4 is the realistic best-case scenario. If we do that, and win a B1G tourney game or two, we end up at 23 or 24 wins. I see us getting a 5 seed or better with that record in the B1G this year. I would be absolutely thrilled with our chances at the sweet sixteen or better
January 25th, 2012 at 1:29 PM ^
10-0 baby! We win ALL our remaining games.
Hey....I never fantasized about banging the ugly girls.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:38 PM ^
Wins: IU, @NEB, ILL, PUR, PSU
Losses: @ohio
Toss Ups: @MSU, ohio, @NW, @ILL
I think they get one of the toss ups to get to 22-9 (12-6 in the B1G). Which I guess will get them a first round B1G tournament bye, then win their first game, and toss up on second, so I would say 23-10 overall. Probable 5th seed in Big Dance.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:39 PM ^
i see us getting swept by osu but taking the rest.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:54 PM ^
I would be very happy with 6-4. But 5-5 seems likely. Two weakest opponents are still on the road (Neb and PSU). And all our remaining home games are tough (IU, OSU, Purdue and Illinois). Think we win 3 of those home games and Neb and PSU on the road. Still, 11-7 is pretty good in the B1G this year. If we get to 12-6, I'll be extremely impressed. But either way, we should be good for the tournament. Thinking a 5-7 seed this year, depending on how we do in the conference tourney.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:00 PM ^
I just want to see Michigan get a seed that isn't a 7-10 or a 15-16. Preferably, they get a seed that is six or better. Theoretically, any top 20 team should get one of those seeds. To end up in the top twenty, my guess is that the Wolverines have to take care of business against every unranked team, home or on the road, beat Indiana at home, and win one more game against either Sparty or Ohio.
If Michigan does that, they deserve to be in the top twenty. I don't like Ohio more than anyone else here, but I think a sweep over Sparty would be huge when the brackets are being drawn up. A sweep over Sparty would allow them the "luxury" of two losses to Ohio. That being said, a victory over Ohio on national TV would make a huge statement.
After the "brutal three-game stretch," the rest of the schedule sets up for the possibility of a "hot" finish. The Wolverines could lose the next three, win the subsequent seven, and be deemed one of "those teams that nobody wants to play in the tourment" by the national media.
My guess: Michigan scrapes at least six wins and possibly seven out of the remaining ten, with one or two wins in the B1G tournament. That's an upside of nine and a downside of seven. Eight or nine wins from here on out should get Michigan a top-twenty ranking and a seed higher than seven.
I would rather see them make a joke of my "upside" and run the table, but, as the adage goes, "a pessimist is an optimist, but older."