Baumgardner: Harbaugh should change his philosophy about what wins big games or M will stay nationally irrelevant
Nick's latest, making the case that to go from good to playoff contenders Harbaugh must adjust his offensive philosophy.
"When talent is close to even in modern football, the team that rides with its best athletes and an open throttle wins more than not...
"If you enter a football game against a team with even or better talent and don't have enough in your toolbox to change speeds and allow your best athletes to be explosive, you're going to lose. Michigan went conservative without enough tempo at Ohio State and lost. It went conservative without enough tempo against Florida in the Peach Bowl and lost. It went conservative without enough tempo in the season-opener at Notre Dame and lost."
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2019/01/08/jim-harbaugh-michigan/2509625002/
January 8th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
Right, because if we scored one more point last time around we would've gotten within. . . 22 points.
It's folly to size up the entire state of the program based on one game per year, and it's not because there aren't insights to be gleaned from The Game. It's more that Michigan has found just about every way to lose The Game in the last 15 years. The year before it was offense. This time it was defense. We've had crappy HCs, ref screwjobs, coordinators with a foot out the door, QB injuries. We've lost blowouts and lost by a hair. The team has usually been worse but even the times Michigan clearly outplayed OSU, something has to go wrong. Next year the team could play absolutely perfectly but with OSU down five points and the 4th quarter clock expiring, our QB on the last kneel-down will slip on a piece of pigeon poop and fumble instead, at which point OSU will pick it up and run 97 yards for the game-winning touchdown because shit, why the hell not at this point. And people will demand Harbaugh be fired for not spending practice time having the QB avoid pigeon poop. Because MODERN offenses know how to handle pigeon poop. No, we're just friggin' cursed when it comes to The Game.
It's maddening to watch, and I'll be the first to say the program has issues to work through, but it needs to be said -- winning the previous game you played is not a successful doctrine.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:07 AM ^
The time of possession was pretty much 29 to 31 and the rushing was about even.
Agree with everything else you said.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:41 AM ^
Baumgardner is totally irrelevant.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
Another narrative that should be laid to rest around here. Baumgardner is actually pretty good at what he does. Certainly not the greatest writer, but his overall coverage of Michigan sports is solid.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
Yapping dogs are gonna yap.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
Wojo wrote a similar article a couple days ago. I imagine we will see more of the same, using different words, in the months to come.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^
Then they will all do victory laps when Michigan does throw more, which is a very obvious conclusion about a thing they'll do next year when you look at the roster.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
It was an obvious thing to do this year too.
And I'm sure that our RBs would have appreciated one less defender in the box...
January 8th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
I don't think first year at Michigan Shea, JBB, Higdon, almost no WR depth once Black went down. a pass pro rebuild, and an elite (until the last two games anyway) D screamed air it out the way things do next year.
However you might feel about the result, Harbaugh always adjusts scheme to fit the guys on a given year's team. They're clearly going to throw more. We'll see if more works out to throwing it as much/effectively as they should.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:44 AM ^
Baumgardner: Harbaugh should win all of his games if he wants to win championships
January 8th, 2019 at 9:44 AM ^
What's the definition of nationally relevant these days? Talked about constantly on national programs, many of the most-viewed games, 3/4 seasons finishing around 10th seems relevant....
They need to throw more and they will throw more, how much so is the big question. Regardless of that it seems silly to frame this as the only relevant teams are what, conference champs and the cfp teams?
January 8th, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
The body blow offense is great. Beating OSU, Florida State, South Carolina, and Florida. Why change at all. Jim is convinced it will work, just needs a little more time for players to adapt.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
I don't disagree with Nick and many people have been harping on this very thing since the OSU game. I do get annoyed though how the perception of fans, players, sportswriters change so drastically. Midway through the season, we were all on cloud nine. Harbaugh's blocking schemes were innovative, he was beginning to run Shea, and our offensive line was providing him time to throw downfield. Now, his offense is broken and needs to go back to the 1940s. I think Harbaugh's offense and I would even go as far to say his playcalling is fine. Where he falls short and misses the boat in today's game is tempo. Increase your tempo with our current offense, and I believe we may be in a similar category with OSU, Goergia, ND, and Oklahoma. After watching last night, I think Alabama and Clemson are on a little higher level.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:53 AM ^
What about this year's performance against OSU makes you think that we're in the galaxy as OSU?
January 8th, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
I think it's a fair point and maybe we would not be, but I did say IF we were to change to a more up-tempo offense, then we would be. I could also just be unable to remove my homer glasses and not want to give a team I hate so very much not enough credit.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
I said his offense was broken 2 years ago. I got booted from the site. I came back to rub it in. The past three years all I've read is excuses.
His offense is good enough to beat most teams in the B10, and that's it. Im willing to wager that his current offense philosophy will not win a national championship.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
Football is particularly bad because of the small sample size, but the vast, VAST majority of sports "analysis" is post-hoc rationalization. It's ironic that this blog mostly exists because it rejects that kind of bullshit and yet its readers continue to post it anyway.
If you need a yard and your fullback dive goes for a yard, you're a flex-TE-wielding genius. If it goes for 0.9 yards you're a dinosaur and FIRE THAT MAN.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
Well said.....It's the joy of being a fanatic. I am sure Alabama fans are ripping apart many things on both their offense and defense this morning because they lost one freaking game this season.
"If you're not first, you're last"
January 8th, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
the offense was more innovative... at points.
the inconsistency of using the RPO for example... used a lot during Wisky but practically nill versus OSU/Florida.
Tempo is hardly innovative at the 2 min mark or when you are down 3 scores in the third quarter: that's called logic.
January 8th, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^
False. If there was one thing Harbaugh was criticized for consistently was his offense. Don Brown got most of the accolades.
Penn State, Indiana, MSU, and Wisconsin were defensive struggles where the offense took a back seat to an amazing defense.
I thought with Black coming back we would open up the offense more. Nope.
January 8th, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^
False. If there was one thing Harbaugh was criticized for consistently was his offense. Don Brown got most of the accolades.
Penn State, Indiana, MSU, and Wisconsin were defensive struggles where the offense took a back seat to an amazing defense.
I thought with Black coming back we would open up the offense more. Nope.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
Really the only team that succeeds running the kind of offense we want to run is Georgia, and they usually do it with significantly more talent at running back and offensive line. Every other team runs some sort of spread that gets their superior athletes in space. It's time for Harbaugh to either start recruiting several 5 stars per year on offense, or adopt an offensive philosophy more suited to the 21st century.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
Clemson hasn't had a single offensive lineman drafted into the NFL in the last 4 years. During that time they are 55-4 with 4 ACC titles and 2 national titles. What they do is recruit 5 star talent at QB, WR, and DL EVERY SINGLE YEAR and fill in the rest of their team around that. It's astounding we are still playing the brand of football we are playing in 2019, where the rules of the game have never in history favored the offense more than now.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
Nick is correct.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
Pretty sure the entire country at this point knows our gameplan on first and second down is to either run it straight up the middle twice or run it straight up the middle once and throw a pass of 5 or fewer yards toward a sideline once. Then, on the inevitable third and 5+, we attempt one pass of 20 or fewer yards. Then, we repeat, punt, or (if its somehow fourth and 1 or 2, we run it straight up the middle again).
All I know is we seem to be the only "major" team with aspirations for success who still believes you BETTER AS FUCK NOT TRY TO THROW IT DOWNFIELD MORE THAN ONCE IN A ROW SO HELP ME...
January 8th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
While none of this is groundbreaking, and many find Baumgardner to be irrelevant, the points that he makes are 100% valid.
That said, for the posters saying "if you want to compete with Bama and Clemson, you need to open it up," if you watched the game, the biggest thing that jumped out for me was not the Xs and Ox, but the Jimmies and Joes. I don't care what system we run on offense or defense, our talent level does not come close to the talent level of these teams. Our most athletic receivers like DPJ and Collins would be just another good receiver on those teams. I am not sure that a single one of our OL would start, and even Gary might not be a standout. Literally, the only player on our team that I am confident would likely start on those teams is Bush. Not a single one of our RB would see the field for anything other than mop-up duty.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
This ^^^^ !!!!
I love our players, and respect the hell out of them. But, if you’re an honest fan and you look at that game last night you have to come away with the notion that those two teams are HEADS AND SHOULDERS above everyone else, including OSU.
Lawrence, as compared to Shea is totally lopsided. Personally, I believe Shea has that kind of performance in him, but he’s nowhere near the polished QB that Lawrence is. That’s not a slight on Shea, that’s just how good Lawrence is. Even the mighty Alabama coached by the greatest of all time was totally out coached and out played by Dabo and Clemson.
We’re building, but that summit is pretty high.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
I mean, it's hard to say because we don't use our athletes like they do. I think DPJ, Collins, and a healthy Black are up there with Clemson and Bama's WR units. Patterson definitely seems a level below Lawrence and Tua but again, hard to tell how he would do in a more open, passing-oriented system. You're definitely right about RB and OL, but that just further suggests we should be utilizing an up tempo, quick strike passing offense. A little more innovation from the coaches could have this offense performing at a top 10 level.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
I don’t totally disagree that our three athletic WR might be close in terms of athleticism. But, the lack of OL and RB talent somewhat neutralizes them regardless of scheme.
That said, I agree with you that our offense has the potential to be really good if we open it up. As far as I am concerned, there are no excuses this year. We return a senior 5* QB, three very highly-rated WR who has shown great ability who are upper classmen, a slew of athletic TE, even a top flight FB, and an OL that, while not Bama, consists largely of highly-ranked, experiences players. I get that Harbaugh’s playbook may be tough, but if it can’t be fully weaponized now, then it isn’t going to happen.
If Harbaugh still tries to win with body blows, inside-only running and time of possession, then the college game truly has passed him by. I hope that this isn’t the case.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
In Soviet Russia, man bites dog.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
The irony of all this is that Harbaugh ALREADY KNOWS THIS and tried, several times during the season, to “throw the ball more.” The problem is, it didn’t work because Shea’s reads weren’t crisp due to relative inexperience, the WR’s weren’t getting separated from their defenders well enough, and the OL wasn’t strong enough in pass protection. But to many fans, those are all excuses, just keep throwing and good things will magically happen!
Such complete idiocy.
Lawrence was throwing absolute DIME back shoulder passes to WR who weren’t even out of their break yet over and over. I saw a few of those throws late in the season from Shea. Which means, the offense is evolving but it wasn’t there in 2018.
Why is this so hard to accept?
January 8th, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
It's not about "throwing the ball more." The entire design of our passing game is broke. Our base run play is inside zone yet our pass game does nothing to take advantage of that when the LB's suck down. No slants, no crossing routes, no mesh, no intermediate routes in the middle of the field, and no screen game. Instead we throw to the TE in the seam, the WR down the sideline, or something quick in the flat. That's it. Until Pep Hamilton leaves and Harbugh hires a guy who actually runs a modern route tree this is what we're stuck with. Doesn't matter if we throw 60 times a game if the schematic design of the passing game is busted.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
Thank you, someone that gets it It's not rocket science.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
I have said this many times over the Harbaugh years .. It’s 3rd and 4 and instead of running quick 5 yard routes to just get the 1st down we run 15/20 yard routes and what happens sack, incompletion, throw away .. Its been happening since Harbaugh has arrived
January 8th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
Not as much when Jedd was here. His pass concepts and play calling were pretty solid. Not advocating necessarily for his re-hire, but he was light years ahead of Pep in both categories.
January 8th, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes
January 8th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
UNACCEPTABLE results require armchair QB fan-blaming and scapegoating to grasp at straws until next season's hype train picks up and we do or do not win all of our games at which point either YAY championship or repeat?
January 8th, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^
I'm going to respectfully disagree here. I concur that Shea's reads weren't crisp and that he has a tendency to hold on to the ball a little long.
However, I do not believe that it hampered the offense significantly. Maybe I have selective memory here, but I remember back shoulder touchdowns, scrambling and finding an open receiver, and a fair amount "chuck it up to Braylon" success with Nico.
I remember one very encouraging drive vs OSU where we spread the field and our receivers torched them en route for a TD. And then we didn't do that ever again in the game.
I agree that Lawrence was making great throws, but if Harbaugh needs a Haskins or Lawrence in order to exceed 200 passing yards per game...we are in serious trouble.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
I remember one very encouraging drive vs OSU where we spread the field and our receivers torched them en route for a TD. And then we didn't do that ever again in the game.
I can almost see Pep going "hey that worked great, now lets switch back to body blows! They'll never see it coming!" FML
January 8th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
I think it did hamper them but they still should have aired it out more and lived with the bad plays.
There were a number of missed wide open guys who were obvious reads throughout the year. Many of the big plays they did hit saw the ball come out late. Whenever Michigan went empty it was a disaster because Shea wasn't quick to get the ball out vs an overload blitz, no matter how obvious the pressure.
On the lack of throws over the middle, I wonder how much was scheme and how much is Shea. QBs are taught from the beginning of their football careers to never throw late over the middle, so if you're usually late you're almost never throwing over the middle.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
And what games are you watching did Michigan attempt back shoulder Fades, Crossing routes , or anything else other than Chuck it deep on obvious horrible play action or try to hit the TE on a horrible PA seem on 3rd and 8? This was a run the ball at all times offense. If you told me they were afraid shea couldn't see over top the lineman for short passes I could probably live with that.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^
DPJ and Collins both caught a number of back shoulder catches. Gentry and Eubanks caught a few seams 20 yards down the middle. They were there, but not called often enough. Not nearly enough. Hyperbolic venting doesn't add anything to the discussion...
But the crossing route and PA bombs statement is on point...
January 8th, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^
Shea had precisely as much time to practice with the team and his receivers as true freshman Lawrence. Why is it taking Shea so long?
January 8th, 2019 at 10:56 AM ^
I don't think Harbaugh does already know this. Maybe he learned it from the OSU game. After that game he said "we went with our best plays" in the offensive gameplan. In other words, they actively didn't bother putting anything new on the field and ran everything exactly according to tendency. It looks like we did the same against Florida. If you do that against quality coaches with elite athletes at their disposal, you get 62-39'd and 41-15'd. Every fucking time.
That's the kind of philosophy change that needs to happen.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
We all get it , well most of us do.. Unfortunately Harbaugh doesn’t get it and it doesn’t appear that he ever will get it .. Manball
January 8th, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
Thanks Captain Obvious.
Michigan is nationally irrelevant. People all over the country talk about Michigan and Harbaugh. Paul Finebaum is fascinated with him. Michigan's D line coach gets hired by OSU and it's national news. Oklahoma hired OSU's DC and no one cared. Like it or not, Michigan is nationally relevant. It may be for short comings and failures, but people care. Michigan football and Jim Harbaugh get clicks.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^
Michigan has a great marketing strategy. Keep running the body blow offense. Eventually it will work.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:56 AM ^
So which is it - nationally irrelevant, or nationally relevant?
January 8th, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^
Yes the offense needs to be adjusted. However, IMHO, the blowout losses to OSU and Florida were the fault of the defense not getting the job done. I also think that Michigan was irrelevant under RichRod and even moreso under Hoke. Michigan IS, I think, relevant again.To say that Michigan under Harbaugh is irrelevant is garbage. This program was a hobo staggering in the woods with no pants on and no sense of self-respect or pride under RichRod and Hoke. Harbaugh's brought the hobo in, cleaned him up and made him respectable again. We had several bad breaks during his tenure too. A blocked punt that isn't blocked, an objective officiating crew at OSU and a healthy quarterback last year and we'd be lauding Harbaugh as a genius. The constant sniping at the best coach we've had in a long time is exhausting. I have faith in the guys getting the job done next year. Even if we fall short, I can't stomach the thought of scouring the country for another "offensive genius" who flops. I remember going on this same board reading the same comments when Lloyd Carr was canned. I would've preferred we kept him over the "brilliant" "forward-thinking" RichRod during those years.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^
"Went conservative" in a big game and lost. You mean to tell me Lloyd-ball doesn't work against the best teams in modern college football?? I'm sure there's absolutely positively unquestionably zero other examples of this ever happening throughout UM history, especially in the 2000's. Nope, none at all.