Basketball up to #5 in Kenpom

Submitted by JamesBondHerpesMeds on December 1st, 2018 at 7:55 PM

..and within 0.2 AdjEM points of #3 Gonzaga. We've got a helluva team, gentlemen.





December 1st, 2018 at 8:28 PM ^

Hey, come on, Dook almost beat Gonzaga!  Plus they're currently up half a hundred on the Stetson Hatters, who, per KenPom, had a 0.02% chance to win the game today.  (I don't recall seeing KenPom go to hundredths of a percent before. :)

ESPN SOR likes Kansas; that was before today's games, but I don't think that's going to change.  They have neutral-court wins over KenPom #9 MSU, KenPom #13 Tennessee, and KenPom #30 Marquette.  Michigan has been more dominant, but two of their big three wins are at home.

Gonzaga has the win over Duke, but their second best win is at KenPom #31 Creighton, and then vs KenPom #48 Arizona.


December 1st, 2018 at 9:51 PM ^

Sites are NOT friendly this year.

Columbus, Ohio
Des Moines, Iowa

Tulsa, Oklahoma

Hartford, Connecticut

Columbia, South Carolina

Jacksonville, Florida

Salt Lake City, Utah

San Jose, California


Midwest is in Kansas City

South is in Louisville

East is in DC

West is in Anaheim


Honestly we probably want the South or East region, and none of those first weekend sites are friendly.  All the M grads in the Northeast might make Hartford the most friendly?


December 1st, 2018 at 11:48 PM ^

Proximity, I believe.  I wouldn't worry too much about Columbus being unfriendly though.  Ohio State isn't able to be placed there as the host, and a lot of the tickets will be bought up by fans of the actual schools that will be playing there.  As much as I loathe OSU fans, I don't think too many of them will shell out hundreds of dollars just to root against Michigan's basketball team.


December 1st, 2018 at 9:03 PM ^

The big difference is that being a 2 seed might mean you have to get by one of the best team in the country just to get to the Final Four.  Sure, you'd have to get by them eventually, but the later you have to means a) your team made it farther, and b) it gives that hard team one more chance to get upset by someone else.


December 1st, 2018 at 9:30 PM ^

#1 seeds are (roughly) twice as likely to reach the final four, 2.5 times as likely to reach the championship game, and 4 times as likely to win the championship as #2 seeds.  In the last 10 years, there have been 14 #1 seeds in the final four to 6 #2 seeds.  The year before that was the year where all four Final Four teams were the #1 seeds.  

As a #1 seed, you may get a tough game eventually, but you're guaranteed to not have to play a top 10 team until the regional finals, and there's about a 20% chance you get a double digit seed in the sweet 16. Even if chalk holds, it's easier to beat a #4 and a #2 than it is to beat a #3 and a #1.  Also, #1 seeds are far more likely to have a location advantage at that point (instead of, for example, playing Kansas in KC or Virginia in DC).

Yes, there are upsets every year, and Michigan was the beneficiary of them last year, but last year also saw two #1 seeds in the Final Four and no #2 seeds.  In fact, Duke was the only #2 to even reach the regional final.  

One more stat: 2013 was the last year that saw more than 2 #2 seeds even make the Sweet 16.  By comparison, last year was the first time since 2004 that did not see at least 3 #1 seeds make the Sweet 16.  


December 1st, 2018 at 9:30 PM ^

Google says 8 #2 seeds have lost in the first round.  Only 1 #1 seed has lost and that was just last year.  I think the selection committee under values mid-majors and puts them on the #15 seed line, when in fact there are some very good mid-major teams.  I'll take my luck against a #16.  They're usually really bad. 

gustave ferbert

December 1st, 2018 at 9:30 PM ^

I love that the defense is a strength.  

The hot shooting is inevitably going to cool off.  Saw that today.  Didn't score for nine minutes but we also shut down purdue. 

Michigan Arrogance

December 1st, 2018 at 10:34 PM ^

the defensive stats are truely mind bottling - the D effeciency got better tonight, no one has scored more than 68, not one has shot more than 40 % (ish, I think) against us. Teams are so inefficient against the M defense they are averaging 20 or so pts under their avg for the season.


December 2nd, 2018 at 2:18 AM ^

Yes, KenPom factors in pre-season rankings.

Also, Duke has been annihilating teams too -- they have three top 25 KenPom victories by 34 (vs Kentucky), 6 (vs Auburn) and 21 (home vs Indiana).  They're not penalized much for losing by two to Gonzaga on a neutral court, since Gonzaga is also very good.  They're also crushing their bodybag games in a way that Michigan really didn't -- they won by nearly 70 points today.

This Duke team is really, really good.  They can obviously be beaten, but they would be favored by a couple of points on a neutral court.


December 2nd, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^

Yeah, the bodybag games are working against us. On paper, even in a slow tempo game, we should have beaten Norfolk State and Holy Cross by more than ~20. Maybe GW and Chattanooga too, they're both pretty terrible. Think we were up 36 on GW at one point too. We'd have a higher rating if only the 4 games against good teams are included.