B1G offensive holding statistics in the Harbaugh Era (Updated Per Play)
So, we've read a lot about the lack of holding calls drawn by our defense in game threads and officiating snowflake threads. I figured it was time to get some hard numbers.
I downloaded the 2015, 2016, and 2017 play by play data from the ESPN API. I then calculated all cases of accepted offensive holding calls in B1G conference play. The following table shows how many holding calls each B1G defense drew.
| Team |
Offensive Holding Calls Drawn 2015-2017 B1G Conference Play |
|---|---|
|
Indiana
|
25
|
| Maryland | 23 |
| Minnesota | 23 |
| Purdue | 22 |
| Wisconsin | 21 |
| Iowa | 20 |
| Michigan State | 20 |
| OSU | 20 |
| Illinois | 19 |
| Penn State | 19 |
| Rutgers | 16 |
| Nebraska | 15 |
| Northwestern | 15 |
| Michigan | 10 |
Anticipating the question; two of the 10 drawn by Michigan were in garbage time.
Updated: Offensive Holdings Drawn Per 100 B1G Conference Plays (as requested)
| Team |
Accepted Holds Per 100 Plays Defended |
Total holds Per 100 Plays Defended |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 1.24 | 1.38 |
| Minnesota | 1.21 | 1.26 |
| Wisconsin | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| Maryland | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Michigan State | 1.12 | 1.23 |
| Purdue | 1.12 | 1.32 |
| OSU | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| Iowa | .99 | 1.09 |
| Illinois | .94 | 1.14 |
| Penn State | .93 | 1.17 |
| Nebraska | .83 | .94 |
| Rutgers | .81 | .87 |
| Northwestern | .76 | .97 |
| Michigan | .58 | .76 |
November 29th, 2017 at 10:05 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 6:46 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 6:57 PM ^
@Umich1, can I post this to the reddit.com/r/cfb board?
November 29th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 7:43 PM ^
i would like to see what the holding penalty data is for non-conference games with non B1G refs officiating. Also, it will be interesting to see how our bowl game will be officiated with non B1G refs officiating.
November 29th, 2017 at 7:51 PM ^
Good work. Content like this harkens back to a different era of MGoBlog that I sorely miss.
November 29th, 2017 at 7:53 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 8:12 PM ^
The correlation holds ok for teams not named Michigan, Ohio State or Norhwestern. If you run the linear fit with those teams excluded you get a liney-looking line, with an R-squared of 0.44 -- not awful.
If one does the same analysis with the high-TFL rate teams in (Michigan at 103, OSU at 95 and Northwestern at 88 -- yeah, I know, I left Indiana in at 88 -- dunno why), then you get something that has bugger all for correlation:
Really shows the deviation from expectation pretty graphically. Sumpin's odd here -- but even overall, you don't get ref credit for being an agressive team on D. Who the heck knows -- conscious, sub-conscious -- if you're that good, they figure you don't need the help. Who knows.
I yield the remainder of my time to the gentleman from Pinconning.
November 29th, 2017 at 8:22 PM ^
Go Blue
November 29th, 2017 at 8:28 PM ^
Here's the 2-2 pitch, fouled into the upper deck down the first base line, ...and a man from Pinconning is going to take home a souvenir baseball.
Not sure why Pinconning came to mind.
I grew up in Traverse City -- my sons grew up in Illinois and California. They tease me that everyone in Michigan knows each other -- we all know each other's towns, that's for sure.
December 4th, 2017 at 2:42 PM ^
I actually forgot I asked. I saw the Mgo13th birthday and went to check my account to see how long I had been on. That is when I saw my question to you. Anywho, I am not sure you will even come back to this thread to see my reply. Either way thank you!
Go Blue
November 29th, 2017 at 9:01 PM ^
At the very least, this should shut up people claiming Michigan fans are just looking to complain. It's not just the old "there's holding on every play in every game", we are legitimately getting significantly less calls than the rest of the league. Now if someone wants to still argue we didn't deserve more calls (i.e. do we see other elite lines getting held less, like Alabama, is there something specific about our scheme that causes to get less calls, etc), then thats valid. But at the very least when Michigan fans say we can't get a dam holding call its pretty dam true and its not just meritless ref blaming.
November 29th, 2017 at 9:23 PM ^
Perhaps the officials saw that UM was the second most favorably treated Power 5 team in the country by officials from 2005-2012 (in conference), and they are evening things out. See Appx D toward the end. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303326028_Referee_Analytics_Bi…
November 29th, 2017 at 9:42 PM ^
This is pretty interesting. I am curious what the effect is if instead of looking at total holds for the season, you look at the discrepancy against holds called in michigan games. Someone might point out that referring is subjective and as long as they are calling penalties consistently between the two teams it is fine. I think this analysis at the moment still holds the possibility that (for whatever reason) both teams are less likely to be called for holds in a michigan game.
November 29th, 2017 at 9:49 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 10:03 PM ^
November 30th, 2017 at 2:51 AM ^
Delaney is behind this. He's butthurt about Bo owning him, and can't give it up. Delany is old, bald, and has a small pecker.
November 30th, 2017 at 8:22 AM ^
alarming. I've been convinced for a long time Big 10 Officials are not up to par compared with other conferences, both in football and basketball, which is even more prone to subjective impacts on games. Maybe we should push for new officiating blood within the conference and have a more independent administration of separate of officiating withing the conference.
Somewhat OT, will be interesting to see how Wisconsin OSU game will be officiated. I predict some holding calls on OSU.
November 30th, 2017 at 8:34 AM ^
I'm not sure i trust that the ESPN API is giving you correct data.
I just went through the play by plays for the last 3 years - and I'm seeing 14 accepted holding calls, not 10.
That is a pretty statistically significant difference.
November 30th, 2017 at 10:29 AM ^
Did you keep a copy of them? Would be helpful to troubleshoot.
Two quick thoughts:
- I removed holding on punts, kickoffs, and field goals. Michigan had a couple there. Only looking at standard defensive plays.
- I only included B1G Conference Games
November 30th, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^
It may be kicking related differences - I counted penalties for holding on a team when they are punting.
November 30th, 2017 at 9:41 AM ^
November 30th, 2017 at 10:53 AM ^
eliminate the delay of game, except for ball spinning (again Michigan only team ever called for that) and false starts. But need to include PI, personal fouls and unsportsmanlike contact. Targeting also might be interesting (for and against). Oh and remember the intent to decieve penalty we got in Harbaugh's first year !!! BIAS ? no fucking way says Delany.
Go Blue!
November 30th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^
Maryland accepted 100% of holding calls?
October 1st, 2018 at 8:32 AM ^
Can the original poster email me the custom ESPN API and sources they used to make this chart. Would like to show to coaching staff. [email protected]
-Grant Newsome