B1G East Divisional Standings

Submitted by TheLastStraw on October 29th, 2018 at 11:52 AM

Thought it would be useful to pause and take a look at the standings and elimination scenarios for the coming week. First the standings (including conference record):

1. Michigan (5-0)

2. OSU (4-1)

3. Maryland (3-2)

3. Penn State (3-2)

3. MSU (3-2)

6. Indiana (1-5)

7. Rutger (0-5)

Indiana and Rutger have already been eliminated from contention in the division. 

If Michigan wins, Penn State is eliminated from contention and the loser of Maryland-MSU is eliminated.

After this weekend, if Michigan wins, only Ohio State, Michigan, and the winner of Maryland-MSU will still be in contention to win the division.

 

Comments

FauxMo

October 29th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^

Man, that is a tough one. While that would probably be the beginning of the end for Urban, it would solidify Dantonini as a "legend" capable of making lemonade out of a shit sandwich on stale bread. But if Urban wins, it would put him on steadier footing and D'antony and MSU could still play the "but all these injuries made us play "weird guys" card". So yeah, let's root for Dantoninerino. 

Mgoczar

October 29th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^

Good point. I just don't believe that MSU is a crap team. They are actually good. Their D is legit.

PSU homers argue this and that, but MSU outplayed PSU at their stadium. They did the same to Purdue. And I suspect they'll give OSU trouble and OSU will wilt. I have to give credit to MSU for their mental toughness which makes up for whatever perceived lack of talent they have. 

I hope our D comes out firing - because if MSU gave up 17 to PSU, I think M can replicate that performance and Higdon can run for 150 yards with 50-60 from Patterson to seal M victory. Go Blue!

AnthonyThomas

October 29th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^

Michigan State is more "fine" than "good." They have some fundamental talent issues that prevent them from winning any game other than a total rock fight, which they deserve some credit for generating on their own but they also tend to get perfect weather conditions/opposing coaches for creating messy games. 

I go with S&P+. Their defense is really good based on it (#14), and overall, they are decent (#33). But the offense is legitimately garbage (#102). 

evenyoubrutus

October 29th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^

I don't know that it would necessarily do anything to improve Mork's status. Win or lose he will finish his career with a winning record over Michigan and more wins over Urban Meyer than any other Big Ten coach. I think for the here and now, anything that knocks OSU down a peg or two is the best thing. 

canzior

October 29th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^

If Meyer were to leave after losing to Michigan this year, I would be ok with this. Buckeye fans could say he was 6-1 vs Michigan, but just like they chalk 2011 up to their worst team in 30 years, his first 3 wins came against Hoke(which he won by 5 points...1 point...and 14 points...despite having the better players and coaches)...vs Harbaugh he won 1 game outright, 1 by poor officiating, 1 by awful qb play and then he lost..and took his ball and went home. 

ChuckieWoodson

October 29th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^

I actually hope it happens (spare the obvious reason that we're guaranteed to go to Indy as long as we win out until OSU) because then Mork won't fire people from his staff.  They're trending toward mediocrity and turning into the perennial 8-4 team we hope they will be.  Last thing we want them to do is go out and hire a bonafide O coordinator and become a bit more dangerous.

Perkis-Size Me

October 29th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^

That's a really tall order at this point. 

1) Felton Davis, their best offensive weapon and the guy who would've easily been the biggest threat to a bad OSU secondary, is done for the year. The rest of their WRs are really just guys. 

2) MSU has no run game to speak of, even if LJ Scott was 100%, and their OL is banged up. Say what you will about OSU's defense as a whole, but their DL is still full of playmakers, even without Bosa. They can just pin their ears back and tee off on MSU. 

3) MSU's run D is really good, but their secondary is a far cry from the "No Fly Zone" units of 4-5 years ago. If Barrett was still the QB for OSU, I'd say MSU has a puncher's chance because they could key in on the run game and not worry too much about the pass. The run game was OSU's bread and butter for a long time. But the fact that OSU can't run the ball very well this year doesn't mean much. OSU is lighting it up in the passing game, and that's going against MSU's biggest defensive weakness. No way Haskins doesn't throw for 400+ again. 

4) Have to wonder how motivated MSU really is at this point. Yes, I know they just beat Purdue, but Purdue has been really hot/cold this year. No consistency. But for MSU, there is nothing of note that they're really playing for anymore this season. We'd have to lose three times for them to have a shot at Indy, and they've already lost their biggest game of the season. I'd halfway expect Dantonio to purposely lose this game so Michigan doesn't automatically have the East locked up before they go to Columbus. 

5) OSU seems to always correct its issues after a loss. Or they at least heavily mitigate those weaknesses. 

The only things I'd say MSU has going for it in this game is that it's at home, they can play like they have nothing to lose, and Dantonio can probably find some ways to "ugly" this game up. All the pressure will be on OSU in that game, to keep pace with Michigan. I still expect a game like 42-17 OSU. 

canzior

October 29th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^

I'm inclined to agree with you. But coming off a loss...and a bye...the only outcome that would shock me is if MSU blew them out. OSU won 48-3 last year and as a team MSU was a bit more capable. But I think a late OSU run makes it feel like a beating that it really won't be. 

Perkis-Size Me

October 29th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^

Believe me, I'd sure like to be wrong. But I just don't see how MSU is able to keep up. If MSU had a strong defense overall, I'd say they have a decent shot of ugly-ing the game up enough to win. But while they've got a great front seven, their secondary is not what it was a few years ago. Haskins is far more equipped than his predecessors to attack that area of the field. And this isn't even considering how many starters MSU is down on the other side of the ball. Not to mention their starting punter, so any hope of trying to play the field position game is likely out the door. 

Could they win? Sure, of course. I thought they were going to get slaughtered in Columbus back in 2015, and we all saw what happened there. And OSU has looked pretty bad against teams like IU and Minnesota. I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised if they got their asses whipped next week. 

OSU seems to always correct its main issues after a loss. 

bluepalooza

October 29th, 2018 at 5:25 PM ^

OSU is not losing another game before The Game.  The blowout by Purdue will wake OSU up.  This is a good thing. I want The Game to be for the works. If OSU is playing without anything on line they will play much loser. If they are playing for championship of East they will have same pressure Michigan has. MSU will play OSU tough, but will lose. The Purdue game was a perfect storm against OSU.  OSU defense is suspect, their Oline is OK, Haskins struggles if you get pressue on him.  All that said, OSU still has a lot of talent. Expect them to rise to occasion 11/24.

ijohnb

October 29th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^

I'm not sure how I feel about this.  We need one really good win.  The way that this is shaping up kind of puts us in a precarious spot.  Neither Wisconsin or MSU is ranked.  I know Penn State is but they kind of look like a disaster and a loss to us gives them 3 losses and they are likely unranked.  If Northwestern wins the West, a second win over a team that lost to Duke and Akron at home is not going to do much for us.  I know Texas losing did us a service with the possible Oklahoma "situation," but we went from thinking our schedule was loaded at the beginning of the season to potentially having a resume problem.  It is feasible that the only two teams we have played that will be ranked by years end will be be ND and (hopefully) OSU.

As far as winning the BIG and going to at least the Rose Bowl is concerned, yes, an MSU win would be nice.  As far as possible playoff possibilities go, I don't think we want it to happen.  I am not saying we haven't had big, important wins this year.  But the quality of our conference competition could be an issue.  Need a signature win, and the only possibility for that is really OSU.

ijohnb

October 29th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^

I don't think that is a sure thing the way you do.  I believe that both Oklahoma or a one-loss Bama could present problems.  Particularly in year where ND provides a "mid-west narrative" already in the CFP.

Yes, I get what you are saying.  Is it preferable for OSU to lose again before we play them if it locked up a BIG championship?  Sure, if I had to pick one I would have us win out and OSU have another loss. 

I am not sold on the win out-get in thing though. 

ijohnb

October 29th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^

But the bigger point is that the conference title is not that big of a factor, by itself, for the CFP.  Particularly in a year where we lost the head to head with ND, who is also in Playoff consideration.  We needed Iowa to be a completely fraudulent Top 5 or 10 team like in 2015 to get some extra padding. 

Reggie Dunlop

October 29th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^

100%.  I'm not sure if nobody pays attention when Michigan's not involved, or what the deal is. But college football teams lose. They lose games they're not supposed to. It's happened every year of existence. It's happened every year of the CFP. It's happened the first 9 weeks of this season and it will happen the last 5 weeks of the season. Teams will lose. I guarantee it. This doomsday scenario where nobody ever loses another game and 12-1 Michigan gets the cold shoulder is a figment of your imagination.

I can't prove to you what will happen in the future. If you want to stress about it, knock yourself out. But I'm with Sleepy. 100% certainty 12-1 Michigan makes it.

Reggie Dunlop

October 29th, 2018 at 1:11 PM ^

Didn't mean it like that. No offense intended. I respect you and agree with you a great majority of the time. I'm just saying to wait a couple weeks before diving too deep into this. These teams will start dropping like flies.

It happens every year. Everybody starts these grand mid-season debates about who goes and who gets left out. They make a primetime special out of the unnecessary CFP Rankings release. Everybody gnashes their teeth and then everybody loses and the decision is made for us.

Don Brown’s Ag…

October 29th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^

The only thing I worry about in that scenario is a 1 loss Bama to either LSU or Gerorgia. This years Alabama team is being touted as one of the greatest teams ever. With them getting in and winning it all last year I can easily see the committee putting a 1 loss Bama in over us. Especially if OSU ends the season with 3 losses. Where would our signature win be? 3 loss PSU, MSU, and OSU?

trueblueintexas

October 29th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^

It's pretty easy to look good when your schedule sucks.

But play out the scenario anyway:

SEC: LSU beats Bama. Both have one loss and win out the rest of the season. Georgia wins out. 1 loss Georgia (who already lost to LSU) plays LSU in the SEC championship game. Whoever wins that game is in for sure and the other team is out.

ACC: Clemson wins out. Undefeated team who has been in the past few CFP.

Big Ten: Michigan wins out. 

Notre Dame: Wins out.

Big Twelve: Oklahoma wins out.

 

That leaves the end result of:

11-1 Bama with a very week SOS (especially OOC) and no championship game 

12-1 Michigan with a conference championship

12-1 LSU or Georgia with a conference championship

11-1 Oklahoma with a conference championship (but no championship game)

12-0 ND

13-0 Clemson with a conference championship

From that that pool, Clemson and ND are in for sure. The winner of LSU/Georgia is in for sure. That leaves one spot to pick from:

11-1 Bama with a very week SOS in retrospect

12-1 Michigan with a conference championship

11-1 Oklahoma with a conference championship (but not championship game) 

Now the committee starts looking for indicators. Oklahoma lost to an at least two loss Texas team in a rivalry. A Texas team that lost to Maryland on the road. The same Maryland team Michigan beat. Oklahoma will not get in ahead of Michigan.

Now it's Michigan vs. Alabama.

Michigan has a conference championship and a loss to an undefeated CFP team, in a rivalry game, on the road, in the first week of the season.

Alabama has a loss against their rival, on the road, but that team has one loss (to a 2-3 loss Florida team)

It's a little too close for comfort, but in that scenario, I think the committee goes with Michigan instead of Alabama.

 

canzior

October 29th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^

Agree with this. We needed Wisconsin to finish strong, MSU to win out..PSU to win out as well. Beating an OSU team that got #metoo'd by Purdue isn't as shiny on the resume as an undefeated 2nd ranked OSU. 

Only good thing is that ND hasn't lost yet, making it the best loss in America. Clemson could finish the season beating only one team that finishes the season ranked: NC State.

Oklahoma lost to a mirage of a Texas team. Potentially beating WVU (who lost to ISU)..maybe even playing WVU in consecutive weeks.  Texas could lose this weekend to WVU...get outscored by Texas Tech, and they play ISU as well. Oklahoma probably needs WVU to keep winning..then lose twice to OU, in close games.

 

ijohnb

October 29th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^

I don't know why so many people have this take.  Why?  Say Oklahoma wins out and has wins over three ranked teams by the end of the year.  Say Alabama loses to LSU by one point and then LSU pounds Georgia in the face again in the SEC title game?  Why would we go over Alabama?  What would be the reasoning?

People are saying this a lot but not really saying anything to support it. 

ijohnb

October 29th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^

We have beat.....?

In an ideal world, OSU clobbers everybody else and we beat them.  I have said above that I would take the BIG East title and run with it right now if given the choice, but a Top 10 OSU team would be a nice victory and would help with what is likely to be a fairly uninspiring matchup in the BIG title game, assuming we get there.

 

bgoblue02

October 29th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^

whoops your right; brain fart... fine OU lost to texas who has two losses... both of them not great.  All of that stuff matters.  I know head to head transitive doesnt work when your playing someone, but it certainly should when you are ranking teams.  

tkokena1

October 29th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^

You're overlooking MSU - if MSU beats OSU then they most likely finish 9-3 with wins over PSU & OSU (also both 9-3). That would give UM wins over 3 ranked teams with 2 coming on the road. 

That scenario assumes PSU beats Wisconsin at PSU, we beat OSU, and MSU doesn't blow a game against Nebraska or Maryland; but if that happens, then we probably have wins over 3 teams ranked between 12 & 25.

With 3 wins over teams finishing the season ranked, we would have a better resume than Clemson and possibly Notre Dame (they beat us & ?). We definitely make the playoffs with that resume plus a B1G championship, we make the playoffs regardless of whether or not Oklahoma wins out. 

J.

October 29th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^

Yes, that is absolutely possible, although it won’t matter, because the “committee” does nothing but sort by number of losses / longest winning streak, Power Five only, just like the polls.  If ND is undefeated, the fact that they will have one win over a team with a pulse won’t mean anything.  The echoes will be awakened, ND will then be curb-stomped in the playoff, and Grimace will get another five years on his contract, during which time he can continue to be a cretin, into whose care parents, inexplicably, will continue to send their kids.

Drenasu

October 29th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^

I'm coming around to this kind of thinking.  I think it is unlikely that we will miss out if we win out, but Oklahoma winning out or Bama losing a close one at LSU is at the very least, a potential problem, because frankly, the Big Ten looks pretty mediocre right now.  OSU looks like a paper tiger with that loss to Purdue and TCU looking like garbage right now.  MSU and Wisconsin are not as good as projected at the beginning of the year and the shine is definitely coming off of PSU.  We can help our cause by winning big while we win out.

 

Texas losing again helped us a bit with Oklahoma, but I don't think we are fully past them as a potential problem yet.  We really need Bama to take care of business against LSU - that eliminates one potential hurdle.  Then we need Oklahoma to lose at, say, West Virginia, or have the rest of their schedule fall apart just to be sure.  I don't think Washington State will be an issue for us if they win out as long as crazy stuff doesn't start happening.