B1G early entries thread

Submitted by jimmyshi03 on January 2nd, 2019 at 1:51 PM

Penn State losing both Shareef Miller and Conner McGovern.

Comments

NittanyFan

January 2nd, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^

Penn State's 2008-2017 average was 8.9 wins and 4.0 losses.

So 2018's 9-4 record was nearly precisely the mean.

I think 9-4 is the baseline prediction for ANY Penn State season in future years.  It's still January, but if I had to go over/under right this instance I'd go over for 2019.  The schedule is fairly favorable and the team was fairly young this year.  Even w/ these 2 departures, that would be only 8 lost of of the 44-man 2-deep.

I see it here fairly often, but predictions of "Penn State might go 6-6" seem ridiculous to me.  They were better than that even during the heart of the sanctions era.  And Franklin, for his faults (I recognize them and don't like him), recruits well and is a considerably better coach than 2000s-era JoePa.  The program may not be elite but it should annually get 8+ wins. 

Anything like 6-6 in 2019 entails PSU going 0-4 against Iowa, MSU, U-M and OSU ... and 2-2 against Pitt, Purdue, Maryland and Minnesota.  I don't really see that.  They're simply considerably more talented than those last 4.

smwilliams

January 2nd, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^

Appreciate the insight and I see no reason to disagree. Penn State is not Michigan State. You never know because of injuries, etc., but 8-5/9-4 seems to be the floor for a healthy-ish Penn State team. 

Honestly, your program and Michigan's seem to be in very similar places right now. 

NittanyFan

January 2nd, 2019 at 6:17 PM ^

I agree: U-M and PSU, on the field, are not overly far apart. 

Someone else made this comment earlier this fall, but PSU's 2016-2018 seasons look remarkably like Michigan's 2015-2017 seasons:

PSU 2016/Michigan 2015: Coming off an uninspiring previous season, the team strongly overachieves pre-season expectations.  There is one blowout loss on the resume but the season is still an unqualified success.

PSU 2017/Michigan 2016: A legitimate National Title contender that doesn't get there.  2 regular-season losses: (1) an excruciating come-from-ahead loss at Ohio State plus (2) a road game against a good team but still a team that should have been defeated.  The team finishes in the Top 5 in S&P+ but it's bittersweet.  A definite feeling of "this team should have done better, it should have been a CFP team."

PSU 2018/Michigan 2017: Younger team, lost a lot of players from the previous year's near-elite team.  Overall, won a number of games but didn't have any truly great wins.  Again, a similar set of losses.  The losses included (1) a "never had a chance blow-out road loss", (2) a "a lot of post-game regrets, we could have won" home loss to OSU, (3) a "we really screwed around and gave the game away" home loss to MSU, and (4) a "team was favored but made mistakes and wasn't overly inspired, so they lost against a more inspired team that didn't make mistakes" January 1 Florida Bowl game loss to an SEC team.

The analogy won't hold forever, of course.  But if it does, PSU will be in that 9-10 win range in 2019.

bronxblue

January 2nd, 2019 at 4:24 PM ^

Yeah, there's no reason to imagine they'll crater unless they get super-unlucky and/or super-injured; see MSU this year where they can't keep anyone healthy and also lose a bunch of 1-score games (ASU, Nebraska, Oregon).  PSU recruits well enough to be a top-tier team nationally, but like everyone else in the Big 10 east everyone sort of beats up on each other so its hard to emerge unscathed.  And PSU benefitted from Michigan being down during the late Hoke run; they absolutely picked up some guys that OSU didn't take that maybe Michigan would have grabbed.  

PSU is a lot like Michigan in that there appears to be a ceiling for them that is "pretty good, not super-elite".  That may change with the shifting tides at OSU, but I'm not sure.

bluepalooza

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^

Not many freshman make a difference.  Michigan had the consensus #1 player in country in 2016 and Rashan had a lot to learn.  It is rare that a freshman recruit can elevate a program.  Maybe a QB or RB, but that is about it and that is very rare. Contribute? Yes.  But to make a difference for 8-4 to 11-1? 1 in 1000

wolve1972

January 2nd, 2019 at 5:54 PM ^

Exactly. And if a program is counting on true freshmen to make a significant impact they're in trouble. To really tie recruiting into program expectations, I believe you have to look at the last 3 or 4 classes together which translates to OSU having the edge but the difference between Michigan, OSU, and PSU is not all that great. 

ak47

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^

This take is really off to me. They've had some incredible recruiting classes back to back, return essentially their entire starting defense, have a soft schedule, and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  I'd say 10-2 is their most likely record with 11-1 and beating us in their white out game more likely than 9-3

jimmyshi03

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^

In the last two years they’ll have lost a generational skill player talent, their all time leading receiver and now their best quarterback since Kerry Collins.

I understand the recruiting rankings, but those classes are being coached by James Franklin now, a guy who is 3-12 against Michigan, OSU and MSU in five years. 

And that schedule isn’t that soft. They get  Purdue and they’re at Kinnick the week before our game. One other schedule note, their OSU game is the week before Michigan.

bronxblue

January 2nd, 2019 at 4:29 PM ^

They aren't going 6-6, but their offensive line remains an issue (and has been really since Franklin arrived), they are going to be replace McSorley with Not McSorley, which will be a downtick (Stevens looks fine), and name one other skill position player beyond Sanders and Hamler that seem above-average?  It's hard.  

And their schedule isn't super-soft; they have to go to Iowa, @MSU, @OSU, @Minnesota, and home to Michigan.  Sure, it's not a murderer's row, but those are all teams that can beat them.  

BroadneckBlue21

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^

Haskins threw 50 TDs this year. That is ann absurd stat for a BIG QB. Can DMac do this when he gets the chance? Will DMac take the leap and replace Shea? Will Harbaugh replace Shea if DMac shows he can dominate (in practice)?

sharks

January 2nd, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^

OSU: Nick Bosa, Dremont Jones, Mike Weber are going early.

Have to think Haskins and WR KJ Hill will declare at any time.

OL Michael Jordan and S Jordan Fuller could stay or go.