Athlon Sports - UM 7-5 (4-4)

Submitted by jtmc33 on June 1st, 2010 at 3:19 PM

UM comes in at #48 with a 7-5 (4-4).  OSU undefeated and #2; Iowa 10-2 #12; Wisconsin 10-2 #16 and Penn St. 10-2 #23 (don't know how a 10-2 BCS team could ever finish out of the top 15).


ND #26 

MSU #31

Purdue #55

Illinois and IU #71 and #73

Bowling Green #111

Interesting article on ranking the Best Coaching jobs ("based on the attractiveness of the position from a coaching perspective"):  UM is #10  (Texas, USC, Florida, 'Bama 1,2,3, 4) with Ohio St. #5, Penn St. #11, ND #12, and MSU #28 .  Eastern Michigan is #120.



June 1st, 2010 at 3:34 PM ^

7-5 is a pretty realistic prediction for an unbiased person to make.  .500 in conference, win both the cupcakes and split the tougher OOC games. 

If we did that and won our bowl game, I'd be happy with it.


June 1st, 2010 at 3:41 PM ^

I'd argue that 20-30 spots is not exactly "well ahead" and Michigan has beat a team ranked "well ahead" of them each of the past two seasons (Wiscy - 2008, ND - 2009).

At least, if I were Athlon sports, that'd be my explanation.


June 1st, 2010 at 3:38 PM ^

Seems pretty reasonable to me.

Based on my own analysis (a little bit more complicated than back-of-the envelope), we should expect 7-5 plus/minus one win.

- Baseline for 7-5: Solid play from our QBs, WRs, OL, and DL.  Areas of weakness include DBs and Special Teams.

- 6-6 you basically have the above w/o the solid contribution from the DL.

- 8-4 is if we have competent special teams. 

Of course 9 wins and higher is possible (but I will be doing backflips on my front lawn if it does happen).  And less than 6 wins is certainly plausible if our QBs and WRs don't connect this year. 

[FYI - my scale is based on Michigan's results since 1990, using the number of wins each season, the number of solid positions (QBs, RBs, WRs, OL, DL, LB, DBs, ST) less the number of weak positions, and a scale to predict wins in 2010].


June 1st, 2010 at 3:40 PM ^

So, Sporting News has us at 71 and Athlon at 48. I don't know, but I'm starting to think that there might be just a tad of baseless speculation involved with these polls.


June 1st, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^

I'd say a 7-5 season is very likely. Beating one of UConn/ND, beating Mass, BG, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, and MSU and losing to Iowa, PSU, OSU, and Wisconsin.


June 1st, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^

...are appropriate, but when we charge out of the gate 5-0 with wins over UConn and ND, oh the hype for the MSU game is epic.


June 1st, 2010 at 3:49 PM ^

If those are projected year-end rankings, it's quite bold to project an undefeated Ohio State team getting snubbed from the BCS championship game. The uproar in Columbus would be somewhat justified.


June 1st, 2010 at 5:29 PM ^

which means we will win 8.3 games this year. 

Furthermore, we can easily determine that 2011 will yield 13.9 wins, which when rounded to the nearest whole number obviously accounts for a win in the (post-expansion) conference championship game and the bowl game.

The 23.1 wins in 2012 is a logical result of DG finally taking the reins shortly before the end of the world.


June 1st, 2010 at 4:37 PM ^

Wisconsin:  two losses seem to be Ohio State and @ Iowa then? I guess I could see it but I've already said that I think Iowa will disappoint folks. Maybe they lose to MSU, but I wouldn't bet on that either. Next most loseable game is @ Michigan, but I wouldn't bet on that either. Wiscy looks like 11-1 to me. Screw those guys.

Penn State: lose to Ohio State and Alabama. Right. Go into Iowa and beat them under the lights early in the season? Nope. Unless their O-line and QBs get a whole lot better over the summer, I think Penn State sees a minimum of 3 losses with Michigan and Michigan State being tough games at home for them. The rest of their schedule seems pretty soft to me so, maybe they do alright.

Iowa:  I've got them down to lose to Ohio State and Wisconsin. They're @Arizona with a 9:35 pm pacific kick off time, third game of the season...yikes. I think we have a really good shot at beating them ,too. MSU will be salty about last year and give them a nice run for their money, but it's Sparty so anything can happen. I've already stated my reasons for my lack of faith in Iowa in a different thread. I stand by it until I hear a convincing argument. I see  at least 3 and up to 5 losses for the Hawkeyes on that sched.


June 1st, 2010 at 5:33 PM ^

You're assuming that they actually, you know, think about how the whole season might play out...

In reality, they look at last year's record, either add or take away a couple wins, then go by the adjusted W-L numbers along with the team name to guess how the rankings might look.

It is worth noting that the process is certainly slightly more advanced than having monkeys throw shit at a list of all the teams and rank them according to the biggest smears, but only slightly.


June 1st, 2010 at 5:12 PM ^

At 7-5, I'll be happy. The last two years have really reset my definition of a "good" season.

I just want to see progress, man. That's all I really care about in 2010.


June 1st, 2010 at 5:21 PM ^

I agree... when looking at the big picture and just thinking "7-5" would be progress, a bowl, a good sign for the future, etc.

However, it turns my stomach when I go through the schedule and try to decide which 5 (FIVE!!!!!!!) losses would I be willing to accept to get that "I'll be happy" with 7-5.

So, F 7-5. 


June 1st, 2010 at 6:16 PM ^

They have OSU as undefeated, and PSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin with only two losses.  I'm assuming one of the PSU losses is to Alabama, so between those four teams there's at most 5 big ten losses.  I don't have the magazine but they must think the rest of the Big 10 stinks.


June 1st, 2010 at 8:20 PM ^

Not sure if stinks is the right word but I think when most pre-season predictions come out, it will appear the big ten is top heavy with OSU, Iowa and Wisky all preseason Top 15, if not maybe Top 10 teams.

PSU will probably be pre-season Top 25, but I think they are suspect heading into the season.  I don't forsee a huge collapse but 10-2 would surprise.  I'm thinking more like 8-4 or 7-5.

Other then that I doubt any big ten teams will be ranked in the preseason.


June 1st, 2010 at 7:07 PM ^

7-5.... well I would notmally think that was a bad year for Michigan. And I still think that is a bad season for Michigan football. However, I do agree that t a 7-5 record would show improvement from the past two years. Shit, a bowl game would be nice. Good news about UM in December would be good. I am tired, as I am sure most of you are, defending my fandom of Michigan.

My other fear is I think we should start 5-0, and I do not want to see us send the season 2-5. That would seem, well, a lot like last year, but with a bow on top. However I do think, if we can get a 5-0 start, then we'll at least split with Sparty and Iowa, take PU and Illinois, and there is 8 wins....

As my grandfather says, "we shall see...."