Are we setting ourselves up for disappointment?

Submitted by MikeCohodes on October 15th, 2013 at 4:42 PM

Ok so after the gut checking / nut punching / mindnumbingly depressing / <insert your superlative description here> game we all went through as fans Saturday, I noticed a lot of people saying how happy they were that basketball season was just around the corner. Are we really that excited for the hoops season though? Or are we setting ourselves up to be disappointed again?

Last season was a magical season that none of us will forget any time soon. But we lost Tim and Trey to the NBA, are we really so sure that we are going to be able to match their level of output? Are we expecting a Final Four run again? Some people seem to be expecting us to win it all this season based on their comments, which I don't see happening (but I'll be more than happy if I'm wrong). I guess I just think that we're being way too hard on this football team by giving up on them halfway through the season, and I think some are getting way too optimistic about the basketball team's chances beyond the Sweet 16 (where I think they'll land) this year and are just setting themselves up for a rough winter.

Am I nuts? Overthinking it? Or am I right to sound a warning now?

Comments

john22

October 16th, 2013 at 9:00 AM ^

WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE. I know we gave penn state the victory but don't give up yet!!! IF we want to give up on somebody,give up on AL or DEVIN. I say get Shane Morris ready,start him against iu. Then he will have  2 weeks to prepare for sparty. Devin is the reason this team barely beats arkon,uconn, and spots penn state 14 points,what are you doing, Devin??? When is Devin going to learn? I hope this lose,makes him learn that turnovers can and will cost you a game. We have a TEAM that is capable of winning out IF Devin just takes care of the football,IF he continues to turn the ball over we must benched him for Shane. Devin has ALL the talent in the world,he just can't turn the football over,simple as that!!! As for basketball season, I expect a good to great season.

ijohnb

October 16th, 2013 at 10:08 AM ^

if many people view your post you are going to get blasted.  I also think you are being a little quick to throw the towel in on Devin.  However, I am also one that thinks that Shane should be getting some series at this point.  I think there is a real possibility that Devin has a very limited capacity to read defenses and that teams are learning that about him and adjusting scheme to force him into mistakes.  If he does not show an improved capacity to do so I think that Morris may get a look sooner than later).

(I know I know, true freshman quarterbacks cannot possibily have any success and considering playing one for significant snaps is as bat-shit crazy as....... say, Chad Henne playing in the 2004-05 Rose Bowl.  Just goofy  /s)

Monocle Smile

October 16th, 2013 at 10:57 AM ^

Gardner, despite his mistakes, is the primary reason we're 5-1. He's the only thing keeping us above water. Were you one of the "bench Denard" kooks?

What about Morris makes you think he's ready to do anything other than ride the pine? And why, WHY would you do something so cliche as to cherry-pick Chad Henne? I mean, you pretty much just nullified your entire post doing so.

ijohnb

October 16th, 2013 at 11:42 AM ^

Devin has a lot of upside.  He also has 9 interceptions and 11 total turnovers through 6 games, three of which lead directly to scores by the other team, almost all of which have quickly resulted in points for the other team.

Only here at M Go Blog could a person who finds this to be a problem worth looking into be considered a "kook."

Monocle Smile

October 16th, 2013 at 2:08 PM ^

That's what the "bench Denard" crowd said, too. And then he got hurt during 2012 Nebraska and we all saw how that worked out. Meaning it's entirely plausible the backup could generate MORE turnovers, but without the upside.

There's a reason you never bench the guy who gives you the best chance of winning

Ty Butterfield

October 15th, 2013 at 5:03 PM ^

Burke is almost a once in a lifetime player. It will be interesting to see if McGary can be as dominate as he was in the tournament without Burke and THJ. New leaders need to step up. People need to realize that this will be a very difficult season.

chally

October 15th, 2013 at 5:05 PM ^

If anyone is "expecting" a Final Four run, they are nuts.  Even if we were the best team in the country, the odds of reaching the Final Four are <50%. 

If you think that there is a greater than 50% chance that Michigan will even make the Sweet 16 (where you think they will "land"), you're still very optimistic about the quality of the team overall. 

Expectations seem to be the bane of fanbases everywhere.  We will have a good basketball team.  We will get to watch lots of good basketball against other good basketball teams.  Hopefully we will make the NCAA tournament.  Hopefully, we will get to experience the joys of winning an NCAA tournament game or two.  But honestly that's all just gravy.

Erik_in_Dayton

October 15th, 2013 at 5:09 PM ^

Never expect a Final Four even if you have what is obviously the best team in the country.  A single-elimination tournament does not prove who the best team is, for good and for bad.  It produces a tournament winner. 

Mr. Rager

October 15th, 2013 at 5:16 PM ^

Your math is very, very flawed.

If you think about this from a real life perspective, there are many choices for where Michigan will 'make it' to this year.

Round of 64. 32. 16. 8. 4. 2.  Hell, some psycho might think we miss the tournament altogether.

Realistically someone might think of it this way:

- We made it to the Championship game last year, but have lost a few important cogs

- Some other teams have added a lot of talent (e.g., UK)

- Instead of top 2, we're likely top 8 preseason, so:

- Chances: 30% Elite 8, 20% Sweet 16, 20% Round of 32, 10% Final 4, 10% Championship Game, 10% Worse than Round of 32

So you 'think' we'll make the Elite 8, because it has your highest likelihood... but you're still under 50%.  

chally

October 15th, 2013 at 6:28 PM ^

When you write "So you 'think' we'll make it to the Elite 8, because it has your highest likelihood," who, exactly, are you talking to?  Was there another comment that got deleted?  It looks like you are replying to me, but I said nothing of the sort. 

Mr. Rager

October 15th, 2013 at 5:38 PM ^

Beginning with the 2000 Final Four, only 20 #1 seeds have made it there.  That's roughly 36% of all one seeds.  Which seems about right.  The math would probably put it somewhere around 20-25% (assuming 100% win against a 16 seed, 80% win against a 8/9, and then 50-60% chance of beating the '4' and '2' seeds).  

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/finalfourseeds

ijohnb

October 15th, 2013 at 6:59 PM ^

Agree. Everybody is being very cryptic about it and the actual things that are said are far from positive or hopeful. It is somewhat concerning because there are only so many things that happen to a back at that age that are not fixed with a week of rest and a heating pad. Based on what I have heard, I am concerned not just for the season but for him. It is being described as more of like a abstract "condition" than really an injury. I am really hoping for good news but I have to say I am worried about Mitch.

AA2Denver

October 15th, 2013 at 5:09 PM ^

There are still many games left, good games. MSU away and NU, NE and we have OSU at home. I'm still going to watch. I'm still going to cheer.

Our MBB team is very good. We're in the best conference and I expect them to do some serious damage in the tourney. If we don't, oh well.

At a Chinese buffet I cried "why can't we just go undeafeted" after losing to a Lou Holtz led Minnesota team. I was like 9. So...yeah, I will always have expections and if we lose I will be upset. However, I move on. In my life Michigan Football has had many more amazing moments than unexpected let downs. 

MikeCohodes

October 15th, 2013 at 7:21 PM ^

because this is a discussion board after all.  And other than the ALCS open thread this has more comments than any other topic today, so I'd say mission accomplished. And because I see people talking about how much they're looking forward to hoops and giving up on the football team already and it makes me sad.

Mr. Rager

October 15th, 2013 at 5:11 PM ^

If McGary is healthy this year come B1G season and Tournament time, then no, we are not setting ourselves up for disappointment.  

Yes, we lost Burke and THJ, but we're adding Walton and Irvin.  How can you not get excited about a team of:

PG: Walton, Albrecht

SG: Stauskas, Levert

SF: GR3, Irvin

PF: McGary, Donnal 

C: Morgan, Horford

Of course the rotation will vary at times (I'm sure we'll see Irvin, GR3, and McGary covering the 3-4-5 at some point), but that's a pretty stacked lineup if you ask me.

Remember our tournament run was also predicated on the success of GR3 (SDSU), McGary (VCU, KU, Cuse), and Stauskas (UF) as well.  Hell, if you look at the tournament stats last year, McGary was our best player.  So having him back is huge.  And GR3 should be able to mature into a more developed scorer this year.  Walton is coming in with high praise (and will be pushed by Spike).  Irvin is a 5-star.  Morgan / Horford is one of the more solid C rotations in college basketball.  

AA2Denver

October 15th, 2013 at 5:24 PM ^

Thank you. I can't believe the pessimism around here. This team is stacked!

How many teams have a preseason all american, two all conference players, one of the best shooters in the country, two near five stars coming into a solid team, some experience with Morgan/Horford and we have depth.  Every team has problems and this team has very few.

MSU is the favorite, but we're not too far behind. 

Mr. Rager

October 15th, 2013 at 5:41 PM ^

And the best coaching staff in the B1G.

If McGary is healthy when it matters, this team will be a matchup nightmare.  Second 'if', IMO, is 'if we can find reliable crunch time scorers'.  That's what we are really missing without Burke / THJ - the guys who consistently took the big shots.  

snarling wolverine

October 15th, 2013 at 6:21 PM ^

Funny thing is. last year, everytime we lost a game, this message board attacked Beilein as harshly as they're attacking Hoke now.   On the eve of the tournament he was not a very popular figure here.  He was being constantly compared to Bill Freider and people were even suggesting that he was just a recruiter, not a good bench coach (which is just, wow).

Even now, I bet if we lose a couple of games, people will start calling last year's tourney run a fluke.

 

 

 

umumum

October 16th, 2013 at 10:42 AM ^

Not only do I not recall virtually any comments attacking Beilein at the end of last season--or comparing him to Frieder (though there may have been a stray one), NO ONE said he was just a recruiter.  The fear was always that Beilein wasn't a good recruiter and wouldn't be able to pull in 4 or 5 star players--even though he had long demonstrated an ability to find the undiscovered gems--like Burke and like at West Virginia.

What I do remember is alot of criticism of unfair Hardaway--who supposedly wasn't ready and/or good enough for the NBA etc etc--yet now he's an irreplaceable lost cog. 

We are loaded with more talent than at any time under Beilein--and it should be a matter of how good we can be.  Mcgary's health and how Walton (Albrecht) handle the point will largely dictate how good we end up.

jmblue

October 16th, 2013 at 1:23 PM ^

NO ONE said he was just a recruiter.

There actually were people making this argument last season. They were, in fairness, a minority, but they were out there. There was quite a bit of criticism of Beilein last season, particularly toward the end of the regular season.  Even though we were defending Big Ten champs (and were literally a layup away from defending that title), the "His system isn't good for our conference"  argument came up quite frequently.  

There were also many who thought Beilein was a bad tournament coach (based solely on the 2012 tournament, apparently) and figured our game against VCU was a coaching mismatch - in their favor.

 

snarling wolverine

October 16th, 2013 at 6:24 PM ^

There were definitely people last year calling Beilein a "recruiter."  I distinctly remember this coming up, repeatedly.  

I know it's ridiculous, but the people saying it probably didn't even follow basketball when we were bad and had no idea what they were talking about - though they still felt compelled to attack Beilein, of course.

 

ijohnb

October 15th, 2013 at 7:05 PM ^

He came in with Lavell Blanchard I think. He is a double redshirt triple senior. (What is crazy is that that was only still under four years since Jordan was throwing down on duke and the iron was unkind to Darius. Seems ages ago)