Are "we" better than OSU right now?

Submitted by 1464 on October 29th, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Less than a month away from the Game, I think a lot of MSM personalities are writing us off. 

Why?

I'm a subscriber to the notion of buy low, sell high.  Perception of our team is WAY lower than it should be.  We lost to an NFL team in Texas, should have beaten a top 5 team South Bend, and had our only 'bad' loss to a solid team in Nebraska at night (without our star performer).  Our defense has solidified in tough situations.  Our offense is slumping, but very dangerous. 

OSU is flying to high to the sun right now.  9-0, but one of the ugliest 9-0 teams I've seen.  Almost lost to Indiana, among other weak opponents.  Looked very sloppy out of conference.  Defense is a sieve.

Granted, three losses will drive the perception that we are not on their level.  So will the shallow topical commentary by media members.  But I think that our team will be able to drive on their defense, and I don't think can match our point production. 

My opinion is that we are a better football team this year.

Comments

Darker Blue

October 30th, 2012 at 8:47 AM ^

Our Defense is light years better then Ohio's defense. Our offense isn't as good as ohio's offense. They say that great defense wins championships, so yes I would say that we can beat ohio. 

 

Plus we have the "we've never had TerreLOLe Pryor on our roster" factor in our favor. We are better. MIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIICH

Metzger

October 30th, 2012 at 9:24 AM ^

Before Nebraska, I would have said we get the edge.  After Nebraksa, Michigan has shown to be inept on offense against better defenses (this has been the case for the past several years!!!).   OSU ranks pretty good in run defense and terribly in pass defense.  What does Mich like to do? Run.   I was pretty confidene that Michigan woudl win against Nebraka with our defense getting better, but now, I have very little confidence. 

Having said that, we almost beat Notre Dame... but they are overrated. 

Don

October 30th, 2012 at 10:17 AM ^

And that streak isn't going to change this year, even if Denard is healthy. Our record at home under Hoke is still unblemished, but on the road it's a different story (like it is for most teams). During the regular season under Brady Hoke, Michigan has not once gone on the road and beaten a team with a winning record for the season. Our mediocre offense (6th and 7th in scoring and total offense, respectively in the conference) does not support our excellent defense, and that's a killer on the road against potent offenses, which OSU has.

A critical aspect of our mediocre offense is that outside of Denard, we have no running game of any consequence, while OSU has two of the top ten rushers in the conference in Miller and Hyde.

Big Ten statistics here: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/stats/2012-2013/confstat.html

MGoStrength

October 30th, 2012 at 10:45 AM ^

If you look at records, yes they are better than us.  They found a way to come from behind in an improbably situation and win with their backup QB on the road, and we...well imploded.  We have a similar style of QBs.  Our defense has been more consistent, but theirs seems to play well in big games like MSU and PSU.  If you look at our common opponents, they beat MSU 17-16, we beat them 12-10.  They beat Nebraska 68-38, we lost 23-9.  They beat Purdue 29-22 in OT, we beat them 44-13.  What does that tell you?  IDK

 

It seems to me that their offense is more consistent and our defense is more consistent.  But, I do think they have the talent on defense to win as is evident in their big games.  They obviously haven't played a top 10 team like ND or Bama.  I may get negged for this but ultimately I think they beat us this year because of our lack of consistency on offense and even more so on the road.  But, I also think we would beat them at home.  So, I really have no idea, who is a better team as we are both good at some things, and deficient at others.

Hannibal.

October 30th, 2012 at 11:11 AM ^

Hard to say how good OSU is.  They have had the good fortune of playing just above their level of competition in most of their games.  Their worst games have been against their worst competition.  Is that luck, or good coaching?  I have been watching football for over 30 years and I still am not sure.  I do know that if the OSU team that showed up against Cal, Purdue, or UAB had shown up against Penn State or Nebraska, OSU would not be undefeated. 

DenverBuckeye

October 30th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^

This is honestly a fun comparison because the strengths and weaknesses of both teams are completely evident. OSU is great at stopping the run (via RB or running QB), but struggles with spread QB's who deliver accurate passes in the intermediate game. When teams have not been able to make OSU pay for this weakness, OSU has won by multiple scores (See Miami, Nebraska). So the question comes down to Denard, as it should. Because as good as Michigan's D has been, I don't think they will completely stop Miller, Hyde, the Smiths, Philly Brown, and Stoneburner. OSU will score in this game. First, will Denard be healthy enough to be full go in The Game? And if he is, will he be accurate enough to exploit OSU's weakness? I don't think Denard goes on the road and runs for 200. Meyer will make Denard's injured arm beat OSU. I don't see it happening this year for Michigan simply because Denard has never proven he could go on the road for a big game and beat someone through the air even when healthy.

Smash Lampjaw

October 30th, 2012 at 12:27 PM ^

is Braxton better than Denard? That should start some fireworks. Braxton is getting the Heisman hype right now, but when the two college careers are complete, who will have the numbers? What would Urban do with Denard? What would he do with Devin? For my money, Devin and Braxton are twins, and if Devin had the starting job thrust upon him as a (rs?) freshman would he be getting Heisman hype now?

DenverBuckeye

October 30th, 2012 at 12:59 PM ^

For it to work correctly, you need to compare Sophomore Miller to Sophomore Robinson as that was the first full year of starting for both. Braxton has a higher ceiling. He has better passing mechanics and a stronger arm than sophomore Denard and is a different runner. He has about 25-30 pounds on Denard as well as a couple inches which allow him to power through tackles a little more. Denard is faster, but Braxton is shiftier. Braxton also turns the ball over less as a sophomore than senior Denard does. From watching both, I'd take Braxton and it's not because I'm biased. Braxton is just a better run/pass combo.

And their careers won't be looked at just for numbers. Otherwise, Graham Harrell would be considered one of the greatest college QBs in history.

And no, Braxton and Devin are not twins. If Devin was as good as Braxton he would never have been moved to WR. He had plenty of opportunity to show the coaches that he is a QB.

profitgoblue

October 30th, 2012 at 4:51 PM ^

I won't debate your statement thats Braxton is a better passer and stronger with respect to fighting off tackles because you're probably right, but I think you are 100% incorrect when you say that Braxton is "shiftier" than Denard.  Watch more video and see how Denard changes direction at full speed - there are very, very few runners at any level that can do that at such a high rate of speed.

And you're wrong that their careers will not be looked at just for numbers.  Braxton will not have won anything significant in his time at OSU due to circumstances beyond his control and everyone will remember Denard's record-breaking performances for Michigan (especially if he becomes the all-time leading rusher among QBs).

buckeyejonross

October 31st, 2012 at 12:14 PM ^

Braxton Miller is shiftier/has better moves than Denard. He's on Reggie Bush's level for open field moves. It's silly. Denard has strong cutbacks and is faster/accelerates faster, but if you don't think Braxton's moves are better, you haven't watched a lot of Braxton Miller's moves. Also, I'm not sure how you can say Miller won't win anything. He's about to have his junior and senior seasons as the Heisman favorite and he will be leading a team that is projected to go undefeated? Barring injury (which, very possible, knock on wood), OSU is the safest bet to win the B1G/go 12-0 next year?

michelin

October 30th, 2012 at 1:57 PM ^

UM is in a virtual tie with Ohio according to the Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings (which are the most accurate  in predicting future game outcomes).  Why?  According to Sagarin, UM has played the #1 and #2 teams in the nation--both on the road--while Ohio hasn't played anybody in the top twenty.  Seemingly, their toughest was Neb=#25, but they played that at home.  Thus, if you subtract 3 points from Neb's ratings for the Ohio home field advantage, Ohio's toughest game actually was MSU, a #35-rated team that they beat by one point.

Also,  when Robinson played most of the game (up until last week), UM had nearly a 3 point lead over Ohio in the Sagarin ratings--meaning that the game in Columbus would have been a tossup (after spotting Ohio a 3 point advantage for home field).  

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

jsquigg

October 30th, 2012 at 4:25 PM ^

I guarantee The Game will be close.  I have my doubts based on Hoke's road record that we will pull it out, but with our defense anything's possible.  As for being better than Ohio, Michigan always is.

AMazinBlue

October 30th, 2012 at 6:22 PM ^

current(RIGHT NOW) state of the team, I say, and it pains me greatly to say this....NO WAY!   There are problems up front on offense, the QB spot is a HUGE question if Denard is hurt and the secondary seems to be giving up more big plays.  Although our pass defense is rated no. 1 in the country.

Denard being healthy and the oline being able to open holes is the key to the whole show.  If the running game works, we're competitive against anyone in the B1G.  If Denard is out or we can't rush the ball, we're in HUGE trouble.  It all hinges on Denard's health/  No offense to Bellomy.  He's a redshirt freshman.  The poor kid has seen no action and the receivers weren't catching for him.

This week is a big indicator of where the team is.