Anyone taking those 20/1 odds on UM winning the MBB title?

Submitted by Red_Lee on March 11th, 2014 at 12:27 PM

Not much of  a gambling man, but with Michigan currently given the 11th best odds at 20/1 I'm considering slappin a few bucks down. Our odds will probably improve once the bracket is finalized, just wondering if anyone has or will take the odds on this right now.


Also, where do you guys place your bets?



March 11th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^

I might before the bracket is finalized. I don't see how anyone outside of a huge MSU homer can lay down a penny on MSU's 10/1 odds of winning it all. You're asking a team to win 6 straight games against good to great teams when they haven't won back to back games in 2 months against bad and good teams.

Mr Miggle

March 11th, 2014 at 4:15 PM ^

Your equity in that bet would be ridiculously high. If you hedged by taking MSU on the money line in the individual games, you could probably guarantee yourself a profit. I don't think you would even need to hedge until after the sweet sixteen.


March 11th, 2014 at 6:23 PM ^

I'm not a gambler (and not a trader either), but it seems like there could be a secondary market where you could "short" a bet just like a stock. As I understand shorting stock (and I'm no expert), I would find someone who wants to bet on MSU at 10:1, and "lease" the bet (i.e., pay $ to hold onto it for some period of time) with the requirement that the other guy has to buy it back at some point in the future after the contest. If they win it all, he gets the pay out plus the money you paid for the lease. If they lose, he has to pay you the value of the bet when he got it.

Por ejemplo: You bet $50 on MSU at 10:1. I pay you $10 and you give me the rights to the winnings. I hold onto the bet until the day after the tournament with the requirement that you buy it back for $50 if they lose. If MSU wins it all, then the day after the tourney I give you the winning bet back ($500). Rather than a $500 payout, you get $510 (winnings, plus $10 lease fee). If they lose, then I get $40 ($50, less the $10 lease fee).

The numbers would need to be adjusted to make it fair to both sides (i.e., $10 upside wouldn't be enough), but you get the point.

Mr Miggle

March 11th, 2014 at 6:56 PM ^

but your example doesn't make any sense to me. I'm getting 10-1 from someone else when I bet MSU and you offer to make me an extra bet at 1-5? If you know someone who will bet you you can simply lay him the 10-1 odds. It seems like you're trying to make an anology with writing stock options, but that's doomed to fail.

I do think there could be a secondary market. If you bet Indiana at 500 - 1 and they make the final four, perhaps you would like to sell part of your action.


March 11th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^

I tend to believe odds like these are set intentionally to shift money around.  I'd assume they're trying to entice people to pick Michigan with these ... interesting odds.


March 11th, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^

actually, it depends...

some pros wait for the line to shift and then bet at the last minute...


I don't particularily like us at 11-1 for good reasons (defense, cold shooting night) and bad reasons (to replicate last years run would require a lot of luck from the cosmos)...

State at 10-1 is a suckers bet. They should be closer to 20-1


Perkis-Size Me

March 11th, 2014 at 12:47 PM ^

Ehh doing the bracket between a group of 15-20 friends is good enough for me. I'd consider putting $20-$30 down on those odds just to make things a little more interesting, but the tournament is such a crapshoot that we could have all the 1-seeds knocked out by the end of the first week.


March 11th, 2014 at 12:57 PM ^

Those odds are actually surprisingly good for a projected 2 seed.  I would've expected them to be anywhere between 10/1 or 15/1 at the most, though I'd imagine the odds will eventually drop down to that come the actual start of the tourney.

I normally go to Vegas the week of the tourney every year and place my bet at the Paris sportsbook.  Yeah, it's not the best sportsbook in Vegas, but that's where I've done it every minus 1 since 2006.  The only time I've ever won money on a tourney bet there was few years back on my 15/1 payout thanks to UConn. Unfortunately, the new baby is making this year's first week of the tourney a staycation for me...


March 11th, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^

Throw down $10 to win $200? I would.

I threw down $5(I know, "high roller") in Vegas for our 75/1 Football Odds next year. Got to put that energy out there!


March 11th, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^

I must be missing something with MSU and Wisconsin. I would have put UM around 8-10/1 and State and Wiscy in the 25-30/1 range. I also think UNC is undervalued at 40/1. Of course, they are a team that could get upset in the first round or make a run to the final four. 55/1 for OSU seems about right - really aren't made for a run. Help is on the way next year, though.


March 11th, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^

This is not strictly relevant to the Vegas odds for Michigan, but 20/1 sounds close to right historically for the 2-seeds in general. I think this was a couple years ago, but CollegeHoopsNet once did a historic analysis of the odds - by seed - of advancing and eventually winning, and I think it came in right around 4% for a 2-seed team to win it all by on historic averages (I think this study went back to 1985 too). The lowest seed with a projected chance greater than 1% was actually the 8-seed, I believe. 

Yinka Double Dare

March 11th, 2014 at 1:26 PM ^

So hard to bet this year's tournament.  Michigan could obliterate any team in the tournament with a performance like they had against Illinois or Nebraska 2 (or last year's Florida tournament game).  Do we know other teams that play a Wisco-style pack line defense?  

I'd definitely be on money lines for individual games.  

Mr. Yost

March 11th, 2014 at 1:47 PM ^

Hell yea...I thought we were a Final Four team all year (even after the PSU loss). This year, heck no. I'd be happy to eat crow and be as wrong as wrong can be. But this tourney run is almost solely dependent on GR3 playing out of his mind because you know what you're going to get from everyone else. GR3 hasn't shown me he can put 6 amazing games together to win us a title. Again, I hope I'm wrong. Energy/Effort/Toughness...if he can get some of that, we've got a real shot.