February 6th, 2017 at 4:18 PM ^

I can't remember where, but I read earlier today that during the regular season the spread was padded by 10 points, and during the playoffs (not including the Super Bowl), the spread was padded by 6 points.  That makes beating the "spread" substantially easier.


Also, one week he failed to submit his picks on time and had to buy a "power up" that randomly made picks for him, and the (alleged) random picks were all correct, which is certainly possible but makes the whole thing seem a little sketchy.




EDIT: Since everybody is still acting as if this is completely impossible, I went back and checked ATS + 10 performance for both Detroit and Dallas.  If you simply took both of those teams throughout the regular season, with a spread padded with 10 additional points, you'd have gone 31-1.  Of course, taking both teams is impossible (or at least unreasonable), as Detroit and Dallas played each other; that is the one game that Detroi lost ATS + 10.


Given how close the spread tends to be, and given an additional 10 points on top of it, and given the opportunity to pick the optimal 4 games every week, I do not find it impossible to believe somebody went undefeated throughout the regular season.


The pad dropping to 6 points for the playoffs obviously makes the whole thing more difficult, but while I think there's room for skepticism, I'm assuming the people saying this simply can't be possible are ignoring the padding on the spread.


February 6th, 2017 at 5:27 PM ^

This is not a scam. He got 14 points in the regular season on top of the spread. Yeah, it's unlikely, but it happened. He posted that he picked NE at 1 pm yesterday. And no, I don't know anyone at FourPlay but I do know the guy that won. Don't be so quick to call something bullshit until you get all the facts.


February 6th, 2017 at 3:31 PM ^

Even if you take something ridiculous like 0.85 ^ 81, it's still 500,000 to 1 against.

Or at .9 ^ 81, it's 5,000 to 1 against.

So yeah, no.  Even if you could pick NFL games against the spread at 90 percent, (1) you're doing something better with that talent than entering this stupid contest, and (2) you're still not picking 81 of 81. 

It's so implausible that it's really annoying to me that USA Today presents this as a straight news story.


February 6th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^


I have no idea why people are so shocked here. 500,000-to-one odds are way better odds than people winning the lotto, but people do that almost every week. Here is a story on two folks that his back-to-back holes in one on the same folf course. The odds? 17 million to 1.

Durham Blue

February 6th, 2017 at 3:26 PM ^

Going 81-0 ATS is much more difficult than picking a perfect NCAA bracket.  Was it a contest that paid out for first place, or did he have to not lose a single pick to get the money?  If it's the latter then it should've paid $1 billion, not $1 million.  The odds of doing what he did are crazy low.


February 6th, 2017 at 3:45 PM ^

Or the lucky guy should actually be living in a penthouse in the Bellagio and making a living by selling his picks.

The heat death of the universe may happen before any living organism goes 81-0 in what's essentially a coin flip.


February 6th, 2017 at 4:03 PM ^

What scam laws cover this? Illegal lottery, outright theft, bait and switch, shell game or pyramid scheme? Either way someone will be going to jail for a whole


February 6th, 2017 at 9:05 PM ^

Either the author of the app set people up to pay off this guy intentionally or this guy figured out a hack on the app. Statistically it is basically impossible to do what has been done here. Occams razor applies...


February 6th, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^

I've been running an ATS pool since 2004 with anywhere between 12-16 guys.  In that entire time, we've never had a single player go 16-0 in a single week.  Heck, nobody's even gone 12-0, 13-0 or 14-0 during the bye weeks.

Going 81-0 would require rattling off 5 straight 16-0 weeks - about as likely as winning the Mega Millions and the Powerball in the same week.

Durham Blue

February 6th, 2017 at 5:03 PM ^

I had an incredible run in Vegas on a college football Saturday a few years ago where I picked 11 ATS winners out of 13 games I bet that day.  And I felt like I won the lottery.  I've never matched that level of success since.  The next best I've done is a a 6-way parlay and I've done that three times in my life.  But 81 without a loser?  It's the type of story that is so weird that it's impossible to believe.


February 6th, 2017 at 8:08 PM ^

I play in a league on that app, you move the line 14 points during the regular season and pick four games a week, then during the playoff eventually it goes down a bit but the only week it's Against the real spread is the super bowl. I (and my friends) only missed something like 7 games this year and a couple guys in my league only missed 2 or 3. Perfect season is really tough obviously but obviously doable.