Annual Turnover Margin

Submitted by Wolverine Devotee on

Yesterday I completed the newest addition to my statistical record book, an annual turnover margin entry.

I went through every season since 1984 (earliest year the opponent totals are recorded in the MGoBlue database) and did the math. 

As of last week, Michigan's current turnover margin in 2014 is -5. 

Season Margin Record
1984 +12 6-6-0
1985 +16 10-1-1
1986 +6 11-2-0
1987 -6 8-4-0
1988 +19(!) 9-2-1
1989 +8 10-2-0
1990 +2 9-3-0
1991 +4 10-2-0
1992 -1 9-0-3
1993 +5 8-4-0
1994 +2 8-4-0
1995 0 9-4-0
1996 Not Available 8-4
1997 +9 12-0
1998 -3 10-3
1999 +9 10-2
2000 +13 9-3
2001 -6 8-4
2002 +9 10-3
2003 +2 10-3
2004 +6 9-3
2005 +5 7-5
2006 +14 11-2
2007 +2 9-4
2008 -10 3-9
2009 -12 5-7
2010 -10 7-6
2011 +7 11-2
2012 -9 8-5
2013 +5 7-6

 

  • When Michigan has a negative turnover margin on the season, they average 5 losses. 
  • When Michigan is negative by double digits, they average 7 losses.
  • When Michigan is positive by double digits, they average 3 losses (last: 2006)
  • When Michigan has a negative turnover margin, they avearge 5 losses
  • When Michigan has a positive turnover margin, they average 3 losses. 

Turnover Margin by Head Coach

Coach Margin Tenure
Schembechler +55 1969-1989^
Moeller +12 1990-1994
Carr +60 1995-2007
Rodriguez -32 2008-2010
Hoke -2 2011-present

Only stats from 1984-present are available

The current margin for this season is included in Hoke's total. 

Michigan's turnover margin in the 2010s is -12 including the 2014 totals. Since 2008, -34 with a 42-36 (.538) overall record and a 21-27 (.438) B1G record. 

Just something I thought was interesting and would share. 

 

MayOhioEatTurds

September 12th, 2014 at 2:26 AM ^

Yeah, RR at -32 in 3 years is impressive!

Equally impressive is Bo at +55 in only 6 years ('84-'89).  Probably more impressive than it looks, since offenses back then tended to be slower and more conservative.  Slower tempo means less plays (and less chances for turnovers); more conservative playbook means running the ball (and less chances for turnovers). 

jackw8542

September 11th, 2014 at 6:39 PM ^

I do not believe we have recovered a single opponent's fumble or intercepted an opponent's pass yet this year.  IIRC, we had only 1 sack against ASU and 0 against ND.  Wasn't getting more turnovers supposed to be what this more pressure oriented defense was supposed to accomplish?  It is impossible to have a positive turnover margin if you never make your opponent turn the ball over!

switch26

September 12th, 2014 at 1:07 AM ^

Wormley and Charlton had back to back sacks. Not sure what is even labeled as a sack anymore. Clark also lit him up later while he was in the pocket and did not throw the ball

LJ

September 11th, 2014 at 7:35 PM ^

That looks like a pretty strong correlation to me.  It would be easier to see if you plotted turnovers and win pct on the x and y and just made each year a single dot in the scatterplot.  I'm guessing you'd see a nice diagonal like from bottom left to top right, surprising no one.

Red is Blue

September 12th, 2014 at 9:53 AM ^

Correlation is not causation. Last week's turnovers did not cause the loss. None in first half, yet down 21-0. I suspect one of those chances of winning charts would show small probability of winning before the first turnover occurred. Sometimes turnovers are a symptom, not a cause, of losing.

Darker Blue

September 11th, 2014 at 7:15 PM ^

gredients Edit and Save

Original recipe makes 8 turnoversChange Servings

 

Directions

 

  1. Combine the lemon and 4 cups water in a large bowl. Place the sliced apples in the water to keep them from browning.
  2. Melt butter in a large skillet over medium heat. Drain water from apples, and place them into the hot skillet. Cook and stir for about 2 minutes. Add brown sugar, and cinnamon, and cook, stirring, for 2 more minutes. Stir together cornstarch and 1 tablespoon water. Pour into the skillet, and mix well. Cook for another minute, or until sauce has thickened. Remove from heat to cool slightly.
  3. Preheat the oven to 400 degrees F (200 degrees C).
  4. Unfold puff pastry sheets, and repair any cracks by pressing them back together. Trim each sheet into a square. Then cut each larger square into 4 smaller squares. Spoon apples onto the center of each squares. Fold over from corner to corner into a triangle shape, and press edges together to seal. Place turnovers on a baking sheet, leaving about 1 inch between them.
  5. Bake for 25 minutes in the preheated oven, until turnovers are puffed and lightly browned. Cool completely before glazing.
  6. To make the glaze, mix together the confectioners' sugar, milk and vanilla in a small bowl. Adjust the thickness by adding more sugar or milk if necessary. Drizzle glaze over the cooled turnovers.

 

CoverZero

September 11th, 2014 at 7:29 PM ^

The RR years were horrible for turnovers.  I suppose that comes from a combination of forcing a new offense on players who were not fits for it, horrible defensive coaching...and freshmen QBs.

Ike Pond

September 12th, 2014 at 9:15 AM ^

Nice work Wolverine Devotee. I really enjoy perusing these stats. You might double check the record in 1984 though. I believe it was actually 6-6 after losing the Holiday Bowl to BYU. That was the year Harbaugh broke his arm in the State game and the O really struggled under Russ Rein and Chris Zurbrugg. It was also the last team to be shut out before last week. As bad as that season went I am surprised that we were +12. I do remember jumping out in the turnover battle in the season opener against defending National Champion Miami though. Bernie Kosar threw six interceptions in that one.

Papochronopolis

September 12th, 2014 at 12:57 PM ^

I don't remember Bo's teams but in Lloyd's day football could get real boring but maybe his low variance strategy kept turnovers to a minimum. I think that approach could be crucial to competing in the B1G this year.

JZ

September 12th, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^

Great post. While some of the years seem a bit random, it is quite indicative of how bad the Defense in the RR era was (including its inability to generate turnovers)