Annual Turnover Margin
Yesterday I completed the newest addition to my statistical record book, an annual turnover margin entry.
I went through every season since 1984 (earliest year the opponent totals are recorded in the MGoBlue database) and did the math.
As of last week, Michigan's current turnover margin in 2014 is -5.
Season | Margin | Record |
1984 | +12 | 6-6-0 |
1985 | +16 | 10-1-1 |
1986 | +6 | 11-2-0 |
1987 | -6 | 8-4-0 |
1988 | +19(!) | 9-2-1 |
1989 | +8 | 10-2-0 |
1990 | +2 | 9-3-0 |
1991 | +4 | 10-2-0 |
1992 | -1 | 9-0-3 |
1993 | +5 | 8-4-0 |
1994 | +2 | 8-4-0 |
1995 | 0 | 9-4-0 |
1996 | Not Available | 8-4 |
1997 | +9 | 12-0 |
1998 | -3 | 10-3 |
1999 | +9 | 10-2 |
2000 | +13 | 9-3 |
2001 | -6 | 8-4 |
2002 | +9 | 10-3 |
2003 | +2 | 10-3 |
2004 | +6 | 9-3 |
2005 | +5 | 7-5 |
2006 | +14 | 11-2 |
2007 | +2 | 9-4 |
2008 | -10 | 3-9 |
2009 | -12 | 5-7 |
2010 | -10 | 7-6 |
2011 | +7 | 11-2 |
2012 | -9 | 8-5 |
2013 | +5 | 7-6 |
- When Michigan has a negative turnover margin on the season, they average 5 losses.
- When Michigan is negative by double digits, they average 7 losses.
- When Michigan is positive by double digits, they average 3 losses (last: 2006)
- When Michigan has a negative turnover margin, they avearge 5 losses
- When Michigan has a positive turnover margin, they average 3 losses.
Turnover Margin by Head Coach
Coach | Margin | Tenure |
Schembechler | +55 | 1969-1989^ |
Moeller | +12 | 1990-1994 |
Carr | +60 | 1995-2007 |
Rodriguez | -32 | 2008-2010 |
Hoke | -2 | 2011-present |
Only stats from 1984-present are available
The current margin for this season is included in Hoke's total.
Michigan's turnover margin in the 2010s is -12 including the 2014 totals. Since 2008, -34 with a 42-36 (.538) overall record and a 21-27 (.438) B1G record.
Just something I thought was interesting and would share.
September 11th, 2014 at 6:22 PM ^
we're -5 this season so far, right?
September 11th, 2014 at 6:50 PM ^
i'm apparently blind. i see that's in the OP's post.
September 11th, 2014 at 6:56 PM ^
-4 I thought, no?
Either way...RR at -32 in 3 seasons? I'm not even mad; I'm impressed.
September 11th, 2014 at 7:45 PM ^
Shane threw an INT against Appy St.
September 11th, 2014 at 7:55 PM ^
Right, I thought we committed 5 but then gained one on Gedeon's TD.
September 11th, 2014 at 8:03 PM ^
Gedeon's TD was a punt, not a TO.
September 12th, 2014 at 2:26 AM ^
Yeah, RR at -32 in 3 years is impressive!
Equally impressive is Bo at +55 in only 6 years ('84-'89). Probably more impressive than it looks, since offenses back then tended to be slower and more conservative. Slower tempo means less plays (and less chances for turnovers); more conservative playbook means running the ball (and less chances for turnovers).
September 11th, 2014 at 6:25 PM ^
Sooo you're saying we should stop turning the ball over so much
September 11th, 2014 at 6:29 PM ^
Lolz RR and Hoke.
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September 11th, 2014 at 6:39 PM ^
I do not believe we have recovered a single opponent's fumble or intercepted an opponent's pass yet this year. IIRC, we had only 1 sack against ASU and 0 against ND. Wasn't getting more turnovers supposed to be what this more pressure oriented defense was supposed to accomplish? It is impossible to have a positive turnover margin if you never make your opponent turn the ball over!
September 12th, 2014 at 1:07 AM ^
Wormley and Charlton had back to back sacks. Not sure what is even labeled as a sack anymore. Clark also lit him up later while he was in the pocket and did not throw the ball
September 12th, 2014 at 2:20 PM ^
Wormley's sack did not count
September 11th, 2014 at 6:56 PM ^
so you're saying manball is the answer?
great work by the way!
September 11th, 2014 at 6:57 PM ^
-32. My god that is dreadful. It's amazing we even won a game.
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September 11th, 2014 at 7:41 PM ^
Couldn't handle our mad skills in 2009
September 11th, 2014 at 7:35 PM ^
That looks like a pretty strong correlation to me. It would be easier to see if you plotted turnovers and win pct on the x and y and just made each year a single dot in the scatterplot. I'm guessing you'd see a nice diagonal like from bottom left to top right, surprising no one.
September 11th, 2014 at 7:42 PM ^
I'd think something like turnovers per play would be even better.
September 11th, 2014 at 8:13 PM ^
so any way you plot it really doesn't matter ... that's pretty high.
September 12th, 2014 at 9:53 AM ^
Correlation is not causation. Last week's turnovers did not cause the loss. None in first half, yet down 21-0. I suspect one of those chances of winning charts would show small probability of winning before the first turnover occurred. Sometimes turnovers are a symptom, not a cause, of losing.
September 11th, 2014 at 8:08 PM ^
Such as missed tackles, great plays, good coaching, .... i.e. turnovers mean a helluva lot.
September 11th, 2014 at 7:23 PM ^
I bet that is Hoke's favorite kind of turnover
September 11th, 2014 at 7:39 PM ^
His favorite are hot dog turnovers.
September 11th, 2014 at 8:10 PM ^
... sounds nasty tho
September 11th, 2014 at 7:29 PM ^
The RR years were horrible for turnovers. I suppose that comes from a combination of forcing a new offense on players who were not fits for it, horrible defensive coaching...and freshmen QBs.
September 11th, 2014 at 10:42 PM ^
Freshmen everything, really.
September 11th, 2014 at 7:36 PM ^
is usually a product of QB play. As much as I love Denard and Devin as players and people, they're both prone to turning the ball over.
QB plays has to get better.
September 11th, 2014 at 7:40 PM ^
Clearely the turnover problems from 2008-2010 can be directly attributed to Rich Rod not employing the dong forrest.
September 11th, 2014 at 8:27 PM ^
And not teaching proper levitation technique.
September 11th, 2014 at 7:46 PM ^
So back to the S&C program... Surely that has something to do with it.
It does, and don't call me Shirley.
September 11th, 2014 at 8:12 PM ^
What I get from this is.....dual threat qbs=more turnovers.
September 11th, 2014 at 11:39 PM ^
Sample size...
September 11th, 2014 at 8:54 PM ^
"Turnovers are like ex-wives. The more you have, the more they cost you."
– Dave Widell
September 11th, 2014 at 10:03 PM ^
We need more cowbell
September 12th, 2014 at 1:06 AM ^
Fuck that. The miss st game was dreadful.
September 12th, 2014 at 6:27 AM ^
since they were essentiallydesparation throws by Gardner when he was running for his life.
September 12th, 2014 at 9:15 AM ^
Nice work Wolverine Devotee. I really enjoy perusing these stats. You might double check the record in 1984 though. I believe it was actually 6-6 after losing the Holiday Bowl to BYU. That was the year Harbaugh broke his arm in the State game and the O really struggled under Russ Rein and Chris Zurbrugg. It was also the last team to be shut out before last week. As bad as that season went I am surprised that we were +12. I do remember jumping out in the turnover battle in the season opener against defending National Champion Miami though. Bernie Kosar threw six interceptions in that one.
September 12th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^
I thought this was the season ticket holder annual turnover margin.
September 12th, 2014 at 12:57 PM ^
I don't remember Bo's teams but in Lloyd's day football could get real boring but maybe his low variance strategy kept turnovers to a minimum. I think that approach could be crucial to competing in the B1G this year.
September 12th, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^
Great post. While some of the years seem a bit random, it is quite indicative of how bad the Defense in the RR era was (including its inability to generate turnovers)