Annual NFL Question: Worst to First
I post this every year. It's fun, test your skills, phone a friend. BUT PLEASE: NO WAGERING. (And for Gawd's sakes, don't try this at home, cuz we're what you call "professionals.")
In every NFL season from 2003* thru to last year, except one (2014), a team finished in first place in its division after having come in last place in that division the previous year. Meaning, a worst to first improvement over one offseason. That's 14 of 15 years. (By "worst" or "first," I mean, have or tying for worst or best record in the division; tie breakers are not applied for this analysis, so a team might be "first" for these purposes but have gotten the wild-card or, maybe, no playoff birth.) In fact, 21 teams did a worst-to-first over those 15 years. Last year's "worst to first" team won the Superbowl.
* NFL realigned its divisions starting with the 2002 season, so, the results of the 2003 season was the first to have a meaningful "worst to first" analysis under the new divisional alignments.
THIS YEAR'S CANDIDATES (meaning, last year's last-place teams in each division):
AFC
East - J-E-T-S JetsJetsJets
North - Browns (ex officio)
South - Colts & Texans
West - Broncos
NFC
East - Giants
North - Da Bears (Note: Bears Bus driven by Rick Mears)
South - Bucs
West - 49ers
Who ya got? Which of these fine, er, which of these nine teams is gonna come in FIRST this year? Seems pretty obvious it's Houston, although the Broncos and 49ers are the other possibilities. Could ask if the Kalil Mack trade put the Bears in the hunt too (uhhh... A-A-RON ROD-GERS is in the division?... no, no it does not).
September 4th, 2018 at 9:40 AM ^
The Browns.
September 4th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^
Browns. Our defense should be lights out and they've added enough playmakers on offensive to pull of the "worst to first" provided the village idiot (Hue Jackson) gets out of the way and lets Greg Williams & Todd Haley run things.
Of course I also predicted that LAST year and if memory serves we fell just a tad short of the mark.
September 4th, 2018 at 10:02 AM ^
I think our Browns are the logical pick. I don't know if I agree with the "village idiot" moniker, but I also pay significantly more attention to CFB. Week 1 will be the litmus test for the offense. Pittsburg always has a solid D. Putting up points on them will be an terrific indicator for the remainder of the season.
September 4th, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^
He's an idiot. Completely botches end of half/game decisions. Called a time out to decide to challenge a play last year (which was obviously going to go against him) thereby burning two time outs on a single play. Declined a personal foul spot penalty which would've have resulted in a third and 28 from midfield to give other team a 4th and inches from our 22. And just this week decided to give the starting left tackle job replacing Joe Thomas to an undrafted FA who played exactly ZERO snaps there in the preseason thereby wasting the entire training camp trying to move our left guard there. Fought with both Gregg Williams AND Todd Haley throughout training camp on this giving players "veteran days off" while both coaches begged for more practice time to both get better and toughen up the players.
I could go on and on and on but trust me on this one. He's an idiot. The good news is John Dorsey KNOWS he's an idiot and even though the Haslams wont let Dorsey fire him (yet) he has put two pretty decent HC prospects on the staff so there is a ready "Plan B" if Hue screws things up early.
With our schedule we should (could?) start 3-1. Pittsburgh doesnt have Bell, the Jets are starting a rookie QB and the Raiders just traded their best player away. We'll see.....
September 4th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^
Niners
September 4th, 2018 at 9:46 AM ^
If Houston is healthy, I'd give them the nod.
Watson could be a superstar and JJ Watt most certainly is, but both need to be on the field.
September 4th, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^
49ers.
September 4th, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^
I live in Houston now and it has to be them. They check all the boxes plus you add back Watson , Watt and Badger and I think they are a top 5 NFL team.
September 4th, 2018 at 9:53 AM ^
As a Bears fan, I still have to go with the Texans.
J.J. Watt (if healthy) = Khalil Mack
Deshaun Watson (if healthy) >>>> Mitch Trubitsky
Packers, Vikings > Jaguars
September 4th, 2018 at 10:01 AM ^
I really hope the Browns are good. Living in western, Pa surrounded by Steelers fans is the worst. I hate them almost as much as OSU. I would love if the Browns kick their ass on Sunday.
September 4th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^
Houston. That's the worst division in football.
I'm not buying the 49er hype. They finished last season beating four mediocre teams and Jax, allowing Bortles to throw for almost 400 yards.
September 4th, 2018 at 10:01 AM ^
Top 3:
Browns
Houston
Chicago
September 4th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
Houston is a solid team that was riddled by injuries. I can see them doing it. Denver too, but Keenum? Woof... I just don't see the Browns winning more than 6 games this season.
September 4th, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^
Screw it, I’ll say my Chicago Bears. Might as well make it a two-fer with my football teams being massively disappointing.
September 4th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^
The Lions! Oh wait... nvm
The Browns are too much The Browns to improve that much. Jets have to play the Patriots. Houston it is.
September 4th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^
None. Most are as bad or worse than the Lions, who also have practically no chance of a division title.
September 4th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^
browns are getting a lot of love in this thread. i agree they have had a strong offseason but.. its the browns.
September 4th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
No way I see them going from worst to first this season, and I do think Hue's days in Cleveland are numbered, but they've got a lot of great talent in place. And they're getting it all in at the right time. No one else in their division is on the upswing, Big Ben has maybe one more year in him, and it looks like LeVeon Bell will not be back in Pittsburgh next year. Pittsburgh is going to take a huge hit in the next year or two.
Cincinnati is trending way down and may not be far from a full-on rebuild. And then Baltimore is just meh. Not bad, but not anything special anymore unless Lamar Jackson turns into a revelation at QB. I don't see much better than 5-11 or 6-10 for Cleveland this year, but that would be a huge step forward compared to where they've been, and could set up for contention in 2019.
September 4th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
My guess would be Texans or Bears - Texans due to return of multiple key pieces coming off injuries (Watt and Watson) and Bears due to a pretty decent defense from last year getting better with the addition of Mack. Bears also lost something like 6 games last year by less than one possession - so it's not like they were being blown out.
September 4th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^
The Browns led by the best D in football. I decided to go with delusional confidence in the Browns this year to balance my Michigan pessimism. What could go wrong?
September 4th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^
Niners and Texans are good candidates. Jacksonville may keep the Texans from achieving that, but they'll be improved if Watson stays healthy.
September 4th, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^
NFC - I think the 49ers will be the best team among the teams that finished last place last year, but I doubt they get to first place this year. The Rams are just absolutely loaded, but the 49ers could contend for a wild card spot. I think the best bet is the Giants. Wasn't that long ago that the NFC East champion was going 9-7 almost every year, Dallas and Washington are down this year, and who knows what Philly's QB situation will turn into. Will Wentz be as good as he was when he comes back? Giants have a lot of talent when the whole team is healthy. I doubt they get to first place, but I just think they have the best shot. Bears are still maybe a year or two away even with Mack, and the Bucs are in the cellar until further notice.
AFC - tempted to pick the Broncos with a fairly open AFC West, but I think the better bet is the Texans. If DeShaun is healthy and if he can play like he played last year (or close to it), they've got a serious shot. Jags have to prove they're not a one hit wonder. Browns are still several years away, but they're bringing a bunch of young, promising talent in all at the right time when the rest of the division is either trending way down (Cincinnati), remaining stagnant (Baltimore), or is still good but just getting old and the window is closing fast (Pittsburgh).
September 4th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
It's the Texans or the Colts.
September 4th, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
Given how much I've enjoyed Hard Knocks this summer, I'll go with the Browns. They definitely have more talent than last year. Also, I picked Jarvis Landry in my fantasy league, so I need the Browns to do well. The one handed grabs we makes are awesome and brainwashed me into picking him.