And the East Lansing weather favors.....?

Submitted by markusr2007 on October 2nd, 2009 at 11:38 AM

I'm thinking wet weather would play to Michigan's strength offensively. What do you all think?

Most of MSU's offensive yardage and scores have come through the air this year. MSU is 1st in passing offense, but 10th in rushing offense so far.

MSU: 13 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs, 7 FGs.

Michigan has a more balanced offense, it seems to me, but has done a lot of damage on the ground so far (scoring).

MICHIGAN: 7 passing TDs, 12 rushing TDs, 3 FGs

Also, MSU has not yet played a game in wet weather, while Michigan already has (last week).

Should be a great game.

Comments

Blue Bill

October 2nd, 2009 at 11:46 AM ^

Perhaps a little more than usual, but not much. Moving the QB under center eliminates the zone-read, which is our bread and butter. I don't think the rain will have that deletarious an impact on shotgun staps anyway, or at least not terribly disproportionate to snaps from under center. (knock on wood)

Blue Bennie

October 2nd, 2009 at 12:23 PM ^

So are QBs placed in the shotgun primarily to get a better read on the defense? I would guess yes, as they would be standing instead of crouching, and not moving. However, I don't know for sure.

Sorry about the simplicity of this question, but I never played football, and have always been assuming this was the reason.

The Tater

October 2nd, 2009 at 11:48 AM ^

My head tells me that rain definitely favors us, in part because of our running strength and MSU's lack thereof (as has been pointed out) and also in part because our secondary is clearly vulnerable, so the less passing MSU can do the better.

But all that being said, I just keep having visions of Michigan players fumbling the ball in the pouring rain at South Bend last year (before which I was saying the same thing about the weather favoring us). Clearly our players have gotten a lot better at keeping the ball in our possession, but rain is still going to make me nervous for a while.

The Tater

October 2nd, 2009 at 12:37 PM ^

As I recall the rain started at half time last year and didn't stop for the rest of the game. On the below "high"lights real, I count 3 fumbles in the second half.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v60HiLLo9fI&feature=related

Yes, we had fumbles in the first half as well (and admittedly those were the ones that really cost us the game) and I'm not disputing that we were generally a team that had a hard time holding onto the ball regardless of weather last year, and that we've been much better about it this year (knocking on wood). BUT I'm reasonable certain that it's harder to hold onto a ball that is slippery and wet than one that is not.

joeyb

October 2nd, 2009 at 11:48 AM ^

Last week doesn't count as a rainy day.

And another thing to take into consideration that rain on grass would tend to favor the team that is used to it and not the team that plays on turf.

Craig

October 2nd, 2009 at 12:08 PM ^

MSU has one of the nicest grass fields I've ever marched on (marching band.) It guess they are putting their farming education to work there.

GO BLUE, beat M.A.C.

msoccer10

October 2nd, 2009 at 12:10 PM ^

In general rain favors a running team, but most "running teams" are under center most of the time. Also, I consider most "running teams to have bigger backs that pound through holes, versus our slashing running game that may find our speedsters slipping on the west turf. We'll see. I think State will have trouble throwing, but so will we. Just hope we can hold onto the ball.

MGoObes

October 2nd, 2009 at 3:43 PM ^

the offensive player that has trouble moving on wet grass, it's the defender. the offensive player has an idea of where he's going to go so he can move accordingly. the defensive player is reacting to what the offensive player is doing. so by your logic we'd have an advantage in a wet game

name redacted

October 2nd, 2009 at 12:27 PM ^

Crappy weather turns games into a battle for field position. If the weather is especially bad, u have to think that hurts us both. Their pass attack will be mitigated, and our runners will be less likely to get around the corner and get to the outside make cuts, etc. Teams that can play 3 yds and a puddle of mud generally do well in horrible weather.

You all remember OSU at the big house in 2007? I was there, cold and wet. OSU had just 13 pass attempts the entire game to Mich 30 something attempts. They just kept bashing up the middle, and played field position. And won.

If the weather is really bad, its who can make the fewest crucial mistakes, and who can win the field position game. I really dunno who that favors.

ndscott50

October 2nd, 2009 at 12:45 PM ^

The current forecast is as follows:

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 55. South southwest wind between 14 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

This sounds somewhat bad but in the discussion the national weather service says “RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD...ESPECIALLY WEST”

This sounds to me like it will be one of those dreary Michigan days with the mist type rain falling, similar to the third quarter in the Indiana game. It will be wet but not a driving downpour with the field turning into a mud pit.

I would note the wind forecast. If the wind pans out on the higher end of those numbers (25 to 30 mph gust) that could create some issues for the passing game. That would seem to help Michigan over Michigan State.

antoo

October 2nd, 2009 at 7:30 PM ^

Wouldn't D Rob running generate so much heat when that when he runs in the rain, all the water would turn into steam? If my theory is correct, have him run in motion before every snap in order to create a smoke screen or steam screen if you will. The defense won't see it coming... literally.

Captain

October 2nd, 2009 at 4:35 PM ^

That's what...

I know where you're going. Don't do it.

Okay.

That's what she... I said don't do it. I'm trying. What are you, 12? I know, I'm really trying. Try harder.

Bah, screw you inner monologue. "That's what she said!" There, done.

Fail. I know, I'll return to my dungeon.

JewofM

October 2nd, 2009 at 1:43 PM ^

think that the weather benefits either team. I think rain is actually an equalizer and many times in this type of situation is comes down to luck. A timely turnover or a special teams play will likely make the difference in this game.

name redacted

October 2nd, 2009 at 2:08 PM ^

bad weather does act as an equalizer, as far as a teams strengths. i do think it exploits a teams weaknesses, however. I think our speed advantage will be less of an advantage because of the weather. so many of these games come down to who screws up the least, and the resulting big plays or field position from said screwups.

tomhagan

October 2nd, 2009 at 4:10 PM ^

I think heavy rain neutralizes a home crowd and takes some of their enthusiasm out of it...also levels the playing field so both teams are dealing with the same conditions.

Heisman Epstein

October 2nd, 2009 at 6:26 PM ^

I wonder what effect the somewhat cold weather and rain will have on our freshmen from warmer climates. It certainly won't be like the NW game from last year, but I'm not sure how much experience Tate has with 50 degrees and rainy.