(in addition to the meteor) Should we root for Penn State or Ohio State?
This thread is about who is in our best interest to win this weekend in Columbus between Ohio State and Penn State, given that Michigan is now essentially eliminated from the Big Ten East race.
I know that there are some rational reasons to choose either team, but I want to lay out the strategic case as to why I'm rooting for Penn State to defeat Ohio State and Michigan State to lock up the East early (I would ultimately root for Wisconsin to defeat Penn State in Indianapolis).
- I don't want Ohio State to be playing for any championships when they come to Ann Arbor. If Penn State defeats Ohio State, the Buckeyes will be eliminated from Playoff Contention. If Penn State then beats Michigan State one week later, the Buckeyes will essentially be eliminated from the East race (as we are now) and if PSU follows that up by defeating Rutgers and Nebraska (both at home in Happy Valley, 99.99999% chance) by the time OSU comes to Ann Arbor the division race will literally be over. This increases our chances for a home upset in my view, with the Buckeyes feeling letdown rather than knowing they're playing for a national/Big Ten championship. Will also decrease the amount of red in the stands.
- I want one of these two teams eliminated from the playoff, and the only way that happens this week is with a PSU win. Seeing BOTH Ohio State and Penn State in the playoff would be a heinous nightmare. The only thing worse than seeing one of these two in the playoff is both of them (and with Notre Dame still lurking around...oh god). It's not a certainty, but say PSU loses in Columbus but it's competitive or close/fluky. If OSU wins out to finish 12-1 as Big Ten Champions, they're in. If PSU is sitting at 11-1 with a narrow, road loss to a playoff team, riding a 4 game win streak, they'd have a decent shot at the playoff, especially with implosions already happening in the Big 12 and PAC 12 (and maybe the ACC?). Another scenario: say OSU loses to Wisconsin in Indy, but Wisconsin loses to one of Michigan/Iowa/Minnesota beforehand; PSU could easily get in à la OSU 2016 because the Badgers have no margin for error given their schedule, even if they are Big Ten champs.
- The more successful Penn State is in 2017, the more likely they suffer key departures in the offseason that bring them back down to earth in 2018 and beyond. Michigan wants Joe Moorhead (and potentially lower level assistants) to get poached to a job he cannot turn down. Michigan wants Barkely to leave early for the NFL, and possibly even McSorely. All of this becomes more likely if PSU doesn't head into the off season with hope that 2018 could be THE special year because 2017 fell just short. At this point, there are not equivalent key pieces on the Buckeye side in similar positions.
- Ohio State is a far bigger recruiting threat than Penn State.
- It's always more demoralizing for the home team to lose, and OSU Horseshoe losses are inherently delightful.
October 22nd, 2017 at 8:40 PM ^
October 22nd, 2017 at 9:31 PM ^
So preseason many of us were forecasting a rebuilding year. The defense lost ten starters. The offense lost eight starters with the right side of the line looking very young. The Don Brown turned the defense into almost instant dominance and clamped on the opposition so hard that it seems like we could win any game with 21 points. Suddenly all the rational analysis fled the blog and folks started talking about winning the Big Ten Championship.
Then a Purdue player deliberately removed our starting QB for the season. Because he was carrying the failure of a young offense to meet the expectations of the fan base, many here had simply decided that the backup would be better, and in beating Purdue many felt their opinion confirmed. It's important to remember that we lost our best deep threat receiver to a broken foot. A minor point to many folks here, but not so minor in the real world of college football.
Then MSU happened and now PSU has happened and many here have lost all touch with reality. Don Brown has done amazing things, but faced with a QB with a hot hand and experienced receivers our secondary gave up many more plays than expected. Now folks here malign their talent. They have all the needed talent they lack experience. That will come with time.
As for the offense. The team has had bad luck with the offensive line. Between injury, the fallout of coaching changes, and sadly bad off field behavior, the team lacks a core of red shirt juniors and seniors that make up great offensive lines. Further the receivers are mostly young and, while talented, suffer the normal problems learning to run routes and gain separation.
Wake up buttercups. Without the injuries to Speight and Black this was always going to be a rebuilding year. Initially the team had a pretty good shot at 10 wins while rebuilding. Now, with the injuries, it's a year that winning 8 games will probably require super human play. So suck it up. We have five more games to watch Michigan football and a reasonable chance to watch them in a bowl game. Peters will play if he grows enough this season, but this is a season to cherish every win because they are going to come hard and the team is going to have to play very very tough to get every one.
October 22nd, 2017 at 10:00 PM ^
I feel like it honestly doesn't matter. I doubt both of them would go to the playoffs anyway, but if they do so be it, they've both won more and are recruiting better than us (PSU in this class, idk about the other years) so I doubt it would change much. Also I'm pretty sure OSU will win, since they want revenge, they're at home and they're better than PSU.
October 22nd, 2017 at 11:05 PM ^
Thinking long term,
I may or may not disagree with the OP's point #1, but absolutely concur with points 2-5.
Ohio State is always the greater threat, re; recruiting, etc. While the Franklin to A&M rumors might not be true, he seems more likely to leave than Meyer. Their success this year is more likely to be temporary. In any event, a stronger PSU program does more to hurt OSU than it hurts Michigan.
October 22nd, 2017 at 11:09 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 12:08 AM ^
From the standpoint of how the rest of the nation views Michigan and the B1G (including voters), I think PSU winning would be the better result.
PSU wins, and Michigan is seen as one of the top four (though currently fourth) in the top tier of the toughest division in college football. Oklahoma's win over OSU loses some luster. If MSU happens to beat either OSU or PSU, I think that might even help as well, even with their loss to ND.
OSU prevails, and they are seen as the dominant force in a class by itself, in a B1G of questionable strength (because of their playoff loss last year and Oklahoma game this year). PSU and maybe MSU in a second tier below them. Michigan in a third tier.
October 23rd, 2017 at 12:22 AM ^
Unless MSU upsets the winner of PSU - OSU (possible, but not likely) or Michigan upsets OSU (possible, but not likely), I think it's safe to say that the winner is headed to the playoff. since Wisconsin figures to be only a speed bump in the B1G title game. So what's best for Michigan? It's all about recruiting...
OSU's recruiting class rank under Meyer:
2012 - 5
2013 - 2
2014 - 3
2015 - 7
2016 - 4
2017 - 2
2018 - 1
AVG. - 3
Michigan's recruiting during same stretch:
2012 - 6
2013 - 4
2014 - 20
2015 - 37
2016 - 8
2017 - 5
2018 - 13
AVG. - 13
PSU's recruiting during same stretch:
2012 - 47
2013 - 33
2014 - 24
2015 - 14
2016 - 20
2017 - 16
2018 - 4
AVG. - 23
MSU's recruiting during same stretch:
2012 - 34
2013 - 37
2014 - 26
2015 - 23
2016 - 17
2017 - 37
2018 - 27
AVG. - 29
A few takeways:
-OSU is really in a class of its own in the B1G. OSU's recruiting peers are more Alabama or FSU than Michigan.
-Michigan has signed some similarly ranked classses but they've never finished with a better class. They've also had classes that haven't been anywhere near OSU's level, partly due to Hoke flaming out but also because OSU has a far better recruiting base.
-Michigan's first two classes under Harbaugh were at an OSU level (just like Hoke's first two classes), but the 2018 class figures to finish in the top 15 range. Moving forward I expect Michigan's classes under Harbaugh to be in the top 10 to 15 range. They are certainly capable of bringing in a top 5 class, but doing it every year like OSU does is not realistic given Michigan's recruiting disadvantages.
-PSU is rising fast and poses much more of an immediate threat to Michigan's status as the second most talented team in the B1G. PA is similar to MI in terms of high school football talent and both PSU and UM have to deal with in state competition (Pitt, MSU) for that talent. Michigan has more of national reach than PSU but PSU is closer to NJ and the DMV, two pretty fertile recruiting areas that historically they have owned. The last thing Michigan wants is an ascendant PSU that can match Michigan talent wise.
-I wanted to show MSU's numbers for a few reasons. They are not at Michigan's or PSU's level, but they are more talented than most MGoBlog users think. After the Big 3, they are the next most talented team in the B1G and as long as Dantonio is there, the MSU game is going to be a very competitive game.
Given this data, it is probably best for Michigan for OSU to beat PSU and head to the playoff. OSU's recruiting can't get any better and won't drop as long as Meyer is there. PSU on the other hand could cash in on a playoff bid not only with the 2018 class but with the 2019 class.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:56 PM ^
but I don't think any d-1 team has their 2018 class enrolled at this time. Perhaps you might drop the 2018 numbers and fairly compute the standings.
Seriously. Don't you feel the tiniest embarrassment using such a ploy?
October 24th, 2017 at 11:56 PM ^
but I don't think any d-1 team has their 2018 class enrolled at this time. Perhaps you might drop the 2018 numbers and fairly compute the standings.
Seriously. Don't you feel the tiniest embarrassment using such a ploy?
October 23rd, 2017 at 4:17 AM ^
I was thinking I could actually root for Sparty to beat Perp State this year. Then Saturday happened and every smug, self-righteous MSU fan I know made it clear they would rather support pedophiles than root for Michigan. Literally.
I should know to expect as much, seeing as how they are fine with saint Dantonio recruiting rapists to campus in an effort to beat Michigan. To them, a few more campus rapes is nothing compared to beating, then gloating about beating, a has-been UM football program. The next best thing for them this year was watching the pedo denial cult take it to us. Fuck MSU. We need to learn to hate as much as they do. I hope we take cheap shoting to their refined level next year and hate as though MSU had rejected our application to attend the University in high school.
PSU vs. MSU? God forgive me, but go PSU. Pretend Sparty is a little boy and have at it.
OSU? They just don't really care at this point. They see us as a former rival and a pathetic group of people clinging to the past. They are hoping we can win a few so that it is more fun to beat us again. To them, hating UM is a "sparty" thing. They don't need to hate us. They feel sorry for us. That is even worse.
At this point, for the sake of the program, we are better off rooting for the Pedos than OSU.
However, I'd take a meteor if offered.
October 23rd, 2017 at 6:34 AM ^
The good news---one of those teams will lose on Saturday!
Meteor is fantastic idea in theory, but would kill too many innocent people.
October 23rd, 2017 at 3:21 PM ^
Sometimes, someone asks a yes or no question.
Sometimes, it's a no or no question.