AccuScore Game Preview

Submitted by Brother Mouzone on October 8th, 2010 at 2:43 PM

Interesting to see how this holds up.  

Michigan is a solid favorite with a 67% chance to beat Michigan State. Denard Robinson is projected for 201 rushing yards and a 86% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD.

In the 33% of simulations where Michigan State wins, Kirk Cousins averages 2.1 TD passes vs 0.63 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.18 TDs to 0.93 interceptions. 

Michigan has a 43% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 77% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is MICH -4.5 --- Over/Under line is 63.5

http://accuscore.com/game-forecast-previews/ncaaf/gameid,257/

 

If this game is close three factors for us to get the win

Turnover ratio

Home Field Advantage

Emotional State of Sparty which will lead to.... Sparty Nooooo!

Comments

JNQ_GOBLUE_79

October 8th, 2010 at 2:47 PM ^

the ball with a chance to win it at the end, PLEASE let it be us.

Out of curiousity, which would you guys rather have:

Us up 2 with State having the ball, 2 minutes left in the game.  Or, us down 5, with the ball, 2 minutes left in the game?

UMAmaizinBlue

October 8th, 2010 at 2:53 PM ^

Denard Robinson is projected for 201 rushing yards and a 86% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD.

 

Only 86%? Wow, I would place that bad boy in the 90's easily. Chances are Denard calls his own number on at least one goal line play.

 

Also, I'll take the over in any Michigan game for the rest of the year. Looks like another "defensive shootout" to me.

profitgoblue

October 8th, 2010 at 3:03 PM ^

Put differently (a little more tactfully?), all of these predictors and lines and over/unders are both making my head hurt and frying my nerves at the same time.  I can't take it much longer - please let it be game time already, or at least time for Dee Hart's announcement!

jmblue

October 8th, 2010 at 2:54 PM ^

Note that the people who actually crunch the numbers and look at this analytically - Vegas, Sagarin, Steele, AccuScore - are all picking us.  The people who deal in cheap platitudes ("MSU's defense looks good," "MSU is all about TEAM!") are picking State. 

rtsannes62992

October 8th, 2010 at 3:22 PM ^

Not saying I think we will lose. But I think part of the Vegas having us winning is the fact that Denard has taken the nation by storm and when people see his name they will expect great things.  That could have a little to do with us having the top hand in Vegas. Now Sagarin, Steele, and AccuScore I don't think have that.

PeterKlima

October 8th, 2010 at 3:53 PM ^

Vegas uses sportsbooks that crunch the numbers to come up with a line. It is not like you trying to reach an agreeable line with your buddy. Vegas isn't just your money against someone elses. There are A LOT of times people bet heavily on one side. Not their primary concern.

tf

October 8th, 2010 at 4:30 PM ^

I'm not an expert, but I think that *is* their primary concern.  My understanding is that sportsbooks do crunch numbers, but they're not trying to predict the outcome of the game.  Rather, they're trying to predict the behavior of the betting public.  If they get equal money wagered on both sides of the line, they're guaranteed to make money.  I think that's also why lines move -- if one team is getting more action, the spread is altered to try to even it out.  If there's disproportionate betting, then the house can either make a pile or lose a pile, and, ironically, the house doesn't like to gamble.

At least, that's how I understand it.  I'm sure there are much more knowledgeable MGoDenizens who can and will correct me if I'm wrong.

jmblue

October 8th, 2010 at 4:57 PM ^

Yes, but in order to predict the point at which an equal amount of cash is bet, you effectively have to predict the outcome.  Most bettors are not going to have ties to either team and just want to beat the spread.  In any event, the spread is a pretty solid predictor of the outcome. 

UMICH1606

October 8th, 2010 at 8:08 PM ^

Let me give you an analogy.In the stock market, the public is always either late or wrong.  So, if you've got the public flowing overwhelmingly hard and in one direction - it is usually a sucker's bet that you want to fade. Smart money is usually doing the opposite.

The book makers are the smart money in this case. They like UM to cover and are herding up all of the sheep for slaughter.

FWIW Sagarin's computer system usually does a very good job of setting expectations. No, they are not perfect - nobody is. But in my observation, they are more reliable and consistent than most.

Sagarin had UM by 2.5 points on a neutral field. Add in 3 points for the theoretical home field advantage, and the computers favor UM by 5.5 points.

Vegas opened up the line at 5.0 points.  What's very interesting about this situation is that Vegas set up an unusually tight spread for this game and is still drawing money in for MSU and the points.  Normally, they'd need to set the spread a bit more wide and rich in order to draw action the other way.

So from an odds standpoint, you've got a lot of people placing very undisciplined, stupid bets.  These are typical signs of over-confidence and complacency.

Vegas does this stuff for a living and there is big money at stake. Sure, there are upsets. But, Vegas is more often correct than incorrect. And, it's typically at the expense of the public. They are likely licking their chops over this situation.

 

Edit- The line has been bought back up to -5.5 at a lot of books. All of the late money ( The pros) is going UM's way.

BornInAA

October 8th, 2010 at 3:13 PM ^

Denard has 100% chance of a rushing TD.

You can set your watch to that.

For sure.

Bet the farm.

Bet the ranch.

Bet on Charlie Weis finishing that pizza.

I mean - A LOCK.

allintime23

October 8th, 2010 at 3:26 PM ^

The other morning. He said if the game was close in the 4th to plan on Dantonio heading to the sideline. It just seems like he's almost making himself a distraction. I wish him well health wise but I also want to win this game more then any game since the 2006 OSU game. I hope he sits tight in the booth and closes his eyes whenever Denard breaks a run.

ldoublee

October 8th, 2010 at 3:34 PM ^

but how great would it be to watch Dantonio wander down to the sidelines to lead the troops...Millen and McDonough gushing over him.  A camera will be on him at all times to capture his emotion.  Then the look of despair that comes over him as he too gets Denarded.  Just think of how it can be added to 'Denard: The Happening" (version 2.0). 

NOLA Wolverine

October 8th, 2010 at 4:33 PM ^

One touchdown through the air (Accuscore predicts an average of 1.48)? I guess accuscore put in a variable for "horrible film study." If MSU doesn't go 50/50 between their strength and our extreme weakness, then that's a monumental coaching error. Kirk Cousins could probably throw three touchdowns and Michigan would have a pretty good chance at winning.

CAwolverine

October 9th, 2010 at 8:18 AM ^

I like the progress of our defense against the rush. I think we contain them and force Cousins to go to the air. Prediction: Monster game for Moutan & Death Row.