July 29th, 2011 at 12:06 PM ^

A little perspective on MSU's 'nice class' can be grasped if you look one ranking below them at Wisconsin. They have nearly half as many recruits as MSU, yet only ranked one below. Rankings are a quantity-based game right now. While we are also ranked high based on quantity, having ten 4-stars gives us a top-5 ranking based on quality also. 


July 29th, 2011 at 12:12 PM ^

Additionally, if you look at "rivals points" MSU has 25% of our total points.

They have 13 commits to our 20, so 65% of our quantity and 25% of our overall rating. If my math serves me correctly, that means if they keep the same ratio of commits and get to 20 commits they would still have a class at  approximately 37% the quality of our class.

I'm not worried.


July 29th, 2011 at 12:26 PM ^

Unless we have a meteroric meltdown, MSU has not been (except the beginning of the recruiting process) primed to catch us in the rankings. Auburn, Miami, Florida, Alabama, LSU, and Oklahoma are some of the teams who could still pass us. USC probably not since their appeal was denied. Top 10 is likely, and top 5 is possible, but will need some elite (ranked elitely; lots of talented kids we could add who wouldn't help our star rankings as much) kids to stay there.


July 29th, 2011 at 12:21 PM ^

Mcgown is solid. Their QB recruit (Oconnor maybe cant remember) is pretty good and a guy we were probably going to jump in on and their LB (Lyles I think) is supposed to be a solid player. Plus, they will probably get Norfleet, who would probably be ranked much higher if he was bigger. That being said, nothing too special. I expect Wisco and Penn St (if they havent already) to pass them in rankings later.


July 29th, 2011 at 12:44 PM ^

That was my point: they have a few 3 star guys who are ranked highly like ours and from what people have said are pretty good players (even though not 4 stars). I'm excited for most (well close to all if not all) of our 3 stars and MSU has a couple good ones they can be excited about, besides their two heavy hitters in Burbridge and Pittman.

turd ferguson

July 29th, 2011 at 12:21 PM ^

I'm always interested in how these services come up with their class rankings.  Rivals uses a point formula, but there's almost no way to create a formula without it being seriously flawed.  One example:

We signed Sione Houma this week.  Let's say that ESPN is right that he's the third best fullback in this class and a 2-star recruit.  Now let's say that we also had signed Dorial Green-Beckham last week (5-star receiver and the consensus best player in the country).  We would have added two players with an average star rating of 3.5, and our average class rating would have gone down.  That would be true despite adding the #1 WR and #3 FB and having a week that almost every one of us would call extraordinary.  It's just a problem with average rankings like these that's caused largely by the challenge of what to do with top guys at less-than-glamorous positions (FB, C, K, P, etc.).

This is just one of the many problems with using point formulas.  I don't know that there's a better option.  There's Tim's way, which is to more subjectively evaluate classes, and I like that but it leaves a lot of room for arbitrariness and disagreement. 


July 29th, 2011 at 12:23 PM ^

I'll be interested to see who ends up second to us in the Big 10 as far as rankings go.   Right now, OSU (#17), MSU (#19), Wisconsin (#20) and PSU (#23) are in one tier, Nebraska (#31), Iowa (#32) and Indiana (#38) a little lower, with Minnesota (#46) and Northwestern (#49) being the other schools in the top 50.  

In the event OSU skates, I assume they'll pick up some of the Ohio guys that are still uncommitted (Stanford?  Washington?  Odenigbo?) and maybe some others.   State only has two 4-star guys (Pittman and Burbridge), but has a couple of guys on the cusp of 4-star ratings (O'Connor, McGowen and Lyles) and is still in it for other prospects.   Both OSU and MSU will have smaller classes though which will hurt them though.  

I don't follow the other schools as much so I don't know how they're looking.   Regardless, at this point, it looks like there will be a pretty sizable gap between us and whomever ends up second.


July 29th, 2011 at 12:52 PM ^

Wisco has got some pretty good talent so far, but I think they have exhausted Wisconsin of 4 star talent, so I don't know how they will fare nationally recruiting. Probably a Top 20 or 15 finish. Penn State might only be at 23, but they are in on some good prospects, notably Noah Spence and Jarron Jones. Also, still other top prospects they could land which could get them to top 15 or maybe even top 10 with some guys like Mahone and Rippley. TSIO could maybe do top 20 or 15 with some guys still left in Ohio, but many national guys have written them off due to the NCAA trouble. Also, is Odenigbo considering more academically prominent schools: Northwestern, Stanford, and ND? I thought, since he had no college allegiance, he and his parents wanted a top tiered academic school, and thus TSIO is probably not going to land him.

Point is that if we end up somewhere from 5-10 in the country, the dropoff between the 2nd ranked Big Ten team, won't be nearly as big as it seems now. Probably a difference of 5-10 spots.


July 29th, 2011 at 12:46 PM ^

I would still ove to get at least 1 Rivals 5-star guy fpr a little street cred.  If Kalis has a good season and stays injured-free, he should be given a 5-star rating by the end of the year.  Other than thatmaybe Magnuson?  During the Lloyd era, we were almost guaranteed at least 1: Warren, Burgess, Mallett, etc. 

Yet in terms of early 5-star guys, we appar to be on the outside looking in.  Hopefully this changes in the years to come.

The other guy that seems to be quite the anomoly is Wormley.  Sites in Ohio such as Buckeye Grove have him in the top five best players in Ohio; yet he's listed as only a 3-star.


July 29th, 2011 at 1:01 PM ^

Kalis is probably our only bet. We are in Peat's top 7 and probably will make his top 5, but a longshot there. It would have to be a big jump by Magnuson.

Interesting you pick those three 5 stars...

With a down year in recruiting for MI (according to Rivals) and the top player in Ohio being just short of a five star, it isn't surprising we aren't in on a lot of 5 stad kids. Also, after a rough couple of years, it isn't surprising we aren't too favored by the national 5 star kids. If we do well on the field this year (9-3 or 8-4) it will resonate next year and allow us to continue to show a program rising back to the top in the nation, which excites a 5 star in Florida or California who doesn't know much about Michigan besides its a great program with tradition and good academics.


July 29th, 2011 at 2:29 PM ^

OSU had a smallish class last year, correct? This year's OSU class won't be gangbusters. If the NCAA reduces their scholarships  -- and I'm guessing OSU loses 10 or 15 over three seasons -- I don't see how the Bucks will be able to keep pace in the next few seasons. It's fantastic. 

True Blue Grit

July 29th, 2011 at 2:37 PM ^

Which is very achievable.  I think Kalis will become a 5 star, and we'll add some very good players to finish - maybe even one additional 5 star.  It ain't over till it's over.