Is a 7 Seed Within Reach?

Submitted by wayneandgarth on

I think with this decisive IL win, we may see Bracketology move Mich to an 8 seed. 

What will it take to move out of the 8-9 slot for the NCAA Tourney?  Will beating Purdue do it?  Reach the B1G final game or win it? 

I'm leaning toward a Purdue win doing it versus needing to get to the B1G final game. 

DavidP814

March 9th, 2017 at 3:28 PM ^

I hope at least an 8-seed.  I would want to avoid Wichita State at all costs in an 8-9 matchup. Getting a 7 close to guarantees Michigan avoids the Shockers in the 1st round.

Entitled Millennial

March 9th, 2017 at 5:55 PM ^

I think if we beat Purdue, we won't get a nine (not that it matters). To get a seven, I think we'll have to make it to the title game, unless we absolutely annihilate Purdue. 

EDIT: Sorry for the triple post. I have no idea how that happened. Darn millennials. 

ak47

March 9th, 2017 at 3:29 PM ^

If we beat Purdue I think a 7 is possible, make it to championship game and I think a 7 is likely with a win there giving us an outside shot at a 6.

TrueBlue2003

March 9th, 2017 at 4:07 PM ^

the B1G championship game is so late that it doesn't get factored into the seedings typically.  So unfortunately, I'm not sure it'd be enough to push us to the 6 line because they won't even know before slotting us in.

I do agree that a win over Purdue is a maybe (depends what other teams do - OK state losing today helped) and a win in the semis, especially if it's over Minnesota, and we're almost certainly a 7.

TrueBlue2003

March 9th, 2017 at 6:57 PM ^

because they used to say every year that they couldn't/didn't consider that game unless it involved a team that would not have been an at-large that would have to be included as an auto-qualifier.

They said they didn't consider the title game in 2004 and in 2008. Both years Wisconsin won it, only to be on the 6 and 3 lines, respectively.  Both years they were underseeded, especially 2004, and the committee used the excuse of timing to say they didn't consider the outcome.

Good for them if they've changed this.  If so, we should absolutely be on the six line with a title unless current teams on the 6/7 lines all win their tourneys too (like Dayton and Creighton).  And even then, a title could be enough because I would think we'd move past or level up with Wisconsin, Minnesota and probably Maryland. 

bronxblue

March 9th, 2017 at 3:30 PM ^

I think they have to win the BTT to jump up that far. But I do think they'll get rewarded, of you will, but getting the weakest 9 seed and the weakest 1 seed.

TrueBlue2003

March 9th, 2017 at 4:57 PM ^

Gonzaga.  We present major matchup problems for slow, lumbering big men and their perimeter defenders aren't elite.

I wouldn't mind being in a shooting contest with UCLA.  We can hang with them on a neutral floor. Oregon similarly doesn't really scare me.

I would prefer to avoid Nova, Louiville, Kentucky and probably Baylor because those teams are athletic, well-coached (I don't think Baylor is as well-coached as the others and can be prone to losing focus) and stand the best chance of defending our threes while also protecting the rim.  Our offense makes most defenses pick their poison but elite defensive teams with great perimeter defenders and rim protection are capable of slowing us way down.  And if that happens, our defense is going to have a hard time winning games for us against good offensive teams.

Kind of indifferent about Kansas and UNC.  Highly talented, but not scaring me because they're not elite defensive teams.

UVA, WVU and UF scare me a bit but I don't think those teams have a chance at a 1 or 2 seed.

TrueBlue2003

March 9th, 2017 at 7:02 PM ^

and playing them on a neutral floor is way different than playing at Pauley.  Look how differently we performed on the road this year against teams like MSU and Illinois.  We've been a very good neutral site team this year compared to true road games.  We can hang with them and it would be another very fun game to watch.

I obviously think we'd be underdogs but I like the matchup relative to other potential 2 seeds.

OwenGoBlue

March 9th, 2017 at 3:34 PM ^

None of this is happening in a void but I think a Purdue win gives them a shot depending on what happens in the other conference tourneys. Making the final or winning it may even move the team up to a 6 if all goes well in the rest of the world: the committee consistently rewards teams that are hot at the end of the year. That said, I'd be thrilled with just avoiding a one seed in the second round.

TrueBlue2003

March 9th, 2017 at 5:06 PM ^

to see if South Carolina and Vtech pose a "barrier" for us.  Committee might be hard pressed to put us ahead of them based on similar resumes and their head to head wins over us.  I'm rooting for them too keep winning so they move up (and rooting for everyone else in the 6-9 range to lose of course).

UMinSF

March 9th, 2017 at 3:42 PM ^

always seems to value teams that are hot heading into the tournament.

We're on a very imressive run since the OSU debacle - if we beat Purdue, I think the committee will look at us very favorably.

 

The Oxford Wolverine

March 9th, 2017 at 3:48 PM ^

An argument can be made that a 7 seed depends alot more on the other teams around Michigan at this point. Per the Bracket Matrix, as it currently stands, Michigan's a solid 8/9 seed, right in the middle of the pack. If many of those teams around Michigan lose their first round conference tournament games, maybe a 7 seed is attainable, but if they each get a win or two, it'll be pretty tough.  And on Michigan's end, probably a conference final apperance is needed to entertain the thought.  But who knows, Michigan's been making serious waves as of late, and maybe they'll be gifted a higher seed for how they've been playing down the stretch.

On a more general level, I'm intrigued by how the conference's perception has changed in the eyes of the panel in regards to their initial 1-4 seed unveil.

Mattb_22

March 9th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^

I think it is definitely within reach. Honestly, the committee historically hasn't done a great job of seeding this tourney so it's possible they stick Michigan in the 7 slot even if we lose tomorrow. I would think a Purdue victory SHOULD put us on the 7 line, but again, the committee seems to get seeding wrong more often than their actual selections, imo.

Boner Stabone

March 9th, 2017 at 3:45 PM ^

The whole group of teams in the 6-9 range on bracketology are quite equal.  You could really just pick a team out of a hat from that group and put a number next to them.

Ty Butterfield

March 9th, 2017 at 3:47 PM ^

This is where shitting the bed against VT and Iowa really hurt. I will say I am impressed with how this team has played down the stretch.

Gr1mlock

March 9th, 2017 at 3:51 PM ^

Think we need to make the finals, possibly win it to  get up to a 7.  But if we keep playing like we have lately, that seems entirely feasible.  

TrueBlue2003

March 9th, 2017 at 7:18 PM ^

seems like a stretch, but looking at the other 7s and 6s (and 5s), it's maybe possible.

If UVA beats ND, Creighton doesn't go far in the Big East, and we win the title (which would necessarily mean wins over Minnesota and Wisc/Maryland or earlier exits for them) we could move ahead of all those teams.  That would get us near SMU which could force a head to head consideration of that game.  Dayton losing early in the A10 would help as well.

Total longshot, but maybe not out of the realm of possibility.