5-7 in 2018?

Submitted by Decatur Jack on

I was talking with a friend I trust on things related to Michigan football and he laid out what I thought was a fairly convincing scenario in which we go 5-7 this year, with losses to ND, Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, MSU, Penn State, and OSU.

The crux of his argument boils down to the OL failing to develop significantly (they need to be a lot better), Shea is not ruled eligible and Peters continues his performance from the South Carolina game. An opening loss to Notre Dame makes the mgocommunity restless and there are calls for McCaffrey, who is pushed into the starting job and doesn't show to be demonstrably better than Peters. Our inability to pass protect puts all of our QBs in a bad spot, and we still can't run the ball when we need to. Wide receivers continue to drop key passes on third downs, failing to develop one iota under Pep/McElwain. We defense our way to 5 wins but against tougher teams we stumble, and we go 0-3 against the rivals.

I wanted to throw this up to the mgoboard and see what you all think, if this is just an outlier position or if it sounds realistic or plausible.

goblue16

February 16th, 2018 at 4:32 PM ^

You think there’s a better chance we beat MSU on the road then Wisconsin and penn state at home?? What are you smoking exactly MSU is gonna be amazing next year we’re gonna need a lot to beat them on the road. PSU should fall back to reality next season and Wisconsin at home is still more manageable even if they do get better

shotvig

February 16th, 2018 at 4:30 PM ^

1. this thread is awful and you should be ashamed of yourself

2. You've mentioned in replies to said shitty thread that it is because you are "depressed"....Never be depressed over a football game, especially one you have no control over

3. Laying out a worst case scenario in February is moronic

4. even 5-7 would be better than 3-9 :)

The artist FKA UN03

February 16th, 2018 at 4:56 PM ^

That seems unlikely. Step back from the ledge and go watch Maryland and Nebraska try to play offense last year. Even in the worst case scenario it seems unlikely those units improve enough to scare Mr. Brown.

Perkis-Size Me

February 16th, 2018 at 5:00 PM ^

I think people are giving Nebraska a little too much credit at this point. I'm sure Frost will have them up to speed within 2-3 years, but he's inheriting a train wreck of a program. Much like he got with UCF when he first got there and inherited an 0-12 program. 

I think they'll finish a modest 6-6 or 7-5 next year, and they won't really be clicking on all cylinders until maybe 2019 or 2020. 

cincygoblue

February 16th, 2018 at 6:09 PM ^

I hosted UCF at a hotel during that 0-12 season. We typically played the team fight song as they entered the hotel.

When we were going over the schedule of events on a conference call before the teams arrival, we were mainly talking to their travel guy but Frost was on the call (HC’s rarely have anything to say, they pay a guy to take care of all of this).

When we got to team arrival, Frost stopped the speaker and said “please don’t play the fight song, we don’t have much fight this year.”

The Man Down T…

February 16th, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^

1.  We're not losing to Maryland.  The others have a case but we're not losing all of the others either.  We're going to win some that people didn't think we would (looking at you ND).  

 

2.  What about Harbaugh last year makes you think that he would push someone out before they were ready regardless of the mgocommunity's comnplaints?  People screamed for O'Korn and O'Korn only came in because he had to.  The next game after Purdue we found out why he had not been in yet.  People then screamed for Peters and Harbaugh held him to after PSU whe he thought Peters was ready.  No way Harbaugh is going to buckle to pressure and throw McCaffrey out before Harbaugh thinks he is ready.  

 

Your friend's thinking is bad and he should feel bad.

Qonas

February 16th, 2018 at 5:40 PM ^

The state of the program absolutely is depressing. Losing to Maryland may be pushing it but there's zero (0) reason to believe we have any ability to beat Penn State, let alone ND/MSU/OSU. See gacking up a game to a 3-7 Sparty squad at home. 8-4 is the top end best case scenario which still leaves us winless against our rivals and fourth in the division. Again.

BlueMk1690

February 16th, 2018 at 6:50 PM ^

so it's clearly a logical step that the team will get significantly worse as it becomes more experienced.

Also, the impact of this disappointing recruiting class would only be felt ca. 2020-2021 IF it's not corrected in the upcoming classes and IF the players in this class don't develop into good players (like you know lesser rated guys often enough do for all those other teams who don't even sniff the recruits you'd like to sign).

And now that he works for Michigan, I'd really like to point out that it wasn't him on that photo. And while he didn't react well to that meme, consider this is a gentleman in his mid 50s and thus is not likely to have the internet savvy to know how to deal with that crap.

I'd also like to call back to the time when another previous Florida coach was (a) the subject of memes mocking him and (b) widely derided..and then went on to do a pretty solid job in another place (and McElwain won't even be asked to do as much as he will not be a HC, just a part of a brain trust really).

Andy213

February 16th, 2018 at 8:15 PM ^

I wasted more time to re-read your post. I normally do not name call or bully folks online but man you are a idiot for posting that shit and your imaginary  friend can suck a D cuz he's a fuckin moron. Thanx for being a dipshit and pissing everyone off. Go play parcheesi  or masturbate maybe sit in the sunshine. I don't know how to spell parcheesi 

wildbackdunesman

February 16th, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^

We will return so many starters and our defense was elite last year.

You honestly see us losing to Maryland at home on top of 6 more games?

 

Yes we have to go on the road to MSU and OSU.  However, last year we had to go on the road to PSU and Wisconsin...those all flip...I'd call that a net wash.  The addition of Notre Dame will be a tougher game than Florida, but Nebraska wasn't good last year...we get them at home...and there is a good chance Frost won't have them firing on all cylinders in his 4th game.

DonBrownSoda

February 16th, 2018 at 9:30 PM ^

Wow opinions are like assholes... it’s just so rare to see someone post them. Next time you think about posting, try holding your breath until you pass out. Did you mother have any children that lived?

SpilledMilk

February 16th, 2018 at 10:15 PM ^

8-4 is the most likely outcome. The team will be a year older and more experienced. After factoring in the gauntlet of a schedule, 8-4 seems like a safe bet.

BroadneckBlue21

February 17th, 2018 at 9:50 AM ^

Considering that JH will not push DM or any player into a starting role based off of fan clamoring, I’d say your friend’s argument ends right there. If people want to do some actual serious analysis, how about you look at the pros and cons of the teams we are playing, too. I.e.: what are ND’a problems and strengths? What about Nebraska? So Frost is a good coach back at his alma mater: he needs to get those kids to actually play well—and they are not filled with as much talent as UM. Plausible and likelihood are two different things. It is plausible for UM to have a losing record, but not likely unless we repeat the loss of QBs. Is the offensive line great like the 1990s or early 2000s? No, but there is a hitload of talent and they will be serviceable. Ruiz moves to center and already shows a determination and ability to be great. Brederson and Onwenu are NFL talent. The offensive line is the second least concerning position on offense after RB. WR is the main thing to worry about—can these young guys step up and run good routes and catch more consistently? Then, Peters has a shitty Bowl game but showed as much talent as a freshman as some pretty good UM QBs in their first years of playing time: Brady, Henne, Griese, and Speight. Go look at their stats rather than rely on some kind of current emotional bias you may have against any of those players. UM fans were expecting all of them to be some kind of Heisman stat level guys—and in their rookie chances they all were inconsistent and battled for a job. I’ve watched them all play for UM, and all of them were inconsistent underclassmen who had bad games. Speight threw 18 tds to 7ints in his first year as starter, and current fans clamored that he stinks. That evaluation is all emotional. Speight was a good leader, made mistakes but also made up for them at the same rate as a Denard. Is Speight athletic? He’s mobile and flashed escapability. But I digress because I can hear all the SpHaters. JH is too good of a coach, with too much talent, to likely lose more than 4 next year. It is plausible that he goes 5-7, which likely means he’s fired or given an ultimatum to fix his staff by firing Drevno and others. But it is more plausible this team loses less than 2 games and is in NC contention most of the year. I find it most plausible that UM wins more than 9 games, than they lose more than 3.