3/16 Bracketology
Joe Lunardi just released his 3/16 bracketology, and he has us as a 1 seed in the East. Villanova is the 2 there, along with Virginia as a 3 and a 2nd round matchup with either UMass or Oklahoma St.
According to Bracket Matrix, we are the last 1 seed with Villanova as the top 2 and every bracket being updated either today or yesterday.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
Michigan getting a 1 seems to be picking up steam. May get it either way. Joey Brackets mentioned the depth of the B1G. I know they are not supposed to use that, but that doesn't mean they won't
March 16th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^
For some contrast, here's how the projected 1-seeds line up at TeamRankings with mere hours to go to the actual selection:
Florida - estimated odds of 1-seed at 87%
Arizona - estimated odds of 1-seed at 86%
Wichita St. - estimated odds of 1-seed at 85%
Villanova - estimated odds of 1-seed at 57%
Michigan is the first one out of this group at 26%, so perhaps there is a bump if we win today. It will be interesting, to say the least.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:54 PM ^
The Big East is #3 at both Massey and Sagarin (I don't think kenpom puts out conference rankings), ahead of the ACC and PAC-12.
"He" did no such thing; those are computer-generated rankings based on a season of results.
And if you think kenpom and sagarin have no credibility you've probably come to the wrong place.
Well, if you compare third-from-the-bottom in the Big East (Seton Hall) to the top 4 in the ACC, OK. But I tihnk Butler, Seton Hall and Marquette are a lot better than BC, Georgia Tech, Wake and Notre Dame. The ACC's full of bad teams, the Big East only has one.
Florida and Wichita St having >10% chances of not getting 1-seeds.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^
I'm sure they still get in, but in all seriousness: is there a team in the at-large conversation that you wouldn't take straight-up over Iowa right now? They're a mess.
I worked up a bracket last night based on my sense of the actual current strength of the teams instead of their overall resumes and Iowa wasn't even on the bubble. Kenpom still has them at 27 but that's because he doesn't give any extra weight to recent results. Massey does and Iowa has plunged to #50 and in free-fall.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^
I have to assume these 3 teams are Michigan, Virginia, and Duke. Possibly Villanova as well.
Ron Wellman: "There are three No. 1 seeds that have been established." Said they're looking at three other teams for the fourth spot.
— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) March 16, 2014
Who are the 3 teams though? Michigan, UVA....and DUKE/NOVA?
i too believe all 4 of those teams have a shot at the #1 in the east.
I would assume Michigan and UVA/Duke. Probably Michigan vs. ACC Champion
...I still can't believe we're so close to being a 1-seed. That's just insane to me
EDIT: CBS seems to think it's been Duke, Michigan, and Villanova. I would assume Michigan would beat out Nova even with a loss. So go Wahoos?
- which is better last 1 seed or top 2 seed
- are we better off losing the BTT championship game
- are we better off losing the BTT championship game TO MSU
Just not too long ago we were debating the bubble - better off one and done in tourney or get some experience in NIT
My thoughts are to Beat State and get the 1 seed. Now if we beat state and get screwed in being the top 2 seed, that may actually be the best case, so that the team feels disrespected.
If we lose today, we'll have eight losses. Has there ever been a number one seed with eight losses?
Other thoughts:
•Iowa, Syracuse, and Ohio St are early outs
•No one wants OkSt. Im betting Wichita gets them.
•No one wants State either. I'd love to see them a fourth time, say in the Championship game
•This is as wide open as it gets.
There's no team now ahead of them in the conference they would flip with, and those are the only changes the committee would make at that point. By the time that game ends they're almost ready to go on TV. They can't start over with the bracket half an hour before showtime.
Agreed. It is effin aMAIZEing what happened this year. If you read the Big 10 projections of mid/late December UM was a 6th place team by most, coming in at 6-4 and losing our top big man. This staff is amazing and kudos to these kids for their hard work. We are flawed due to our lack of interior defense and losing Mitch's offensive skill set down low but to be in this conversation for at worst a high 2 seed is something else.
As for the general point of this thread - well obviously in 4 hrs there will be a similar post with 1000 comments on it talking about how tough this or that team is but as we see every year no one knows who will be there in rounds 3, 4,5, 6 etc. Just show up and play the game - worry about Michigan not the opponent. (Yes I know that will never happen...)
I would rather lose in the first round of NCAA than lose to MSU in a game that meant nothing. Today is a must win for us!!
Anyone who thinks losing to Moo is a good idea doesn't live here.
What's the upside to being a #2 seed? Who are the likely opponents?
Here's the guy that knows what he's doing. #1 all-time in Patmon and he's beaten Lunardi every single year.
http://lobofan2003.webs.com/apps/blog/
Hope he's wrong; that would be a very unfortunate third-round draw.
With Harvard & SDSU
Man, Jabari Parker is going to be a very good pro.
What an athlete.
I realize that this isn't a realistic hypothetical at all. That said, I'd rather beat sparty today and get a #2 seed than lose today and get a #1.
I just don't understand why people underestimate having to play a 3 instead of 4/5 in the sweet 16. for that reason alone a #1 seed is always better...
in my opinion.
jdon
It looks to me like there's not a big difference in 2s and 3s, but a decent sized dropoff from the 3 line to the 4 based on projections. If teams like Kansas, Louisville, and Duke are headed for the 3 spot, I'd say you really want a 1 seed.
Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin - all out
Virginia - won the ACC but only 5 RPI Top 50 wins
Louisville - only 5 RPI Top 50 wins
Villanova - hasn't beaten anyone over RPI #39
None of the twos are in it except maybe Duke with a Michigan loss
Not ideal there in the second round; I don't think the committee would be able to resist Memphis/Kentucky though.
Play-in games are screwed up because of byo's bug that fixes their regions--swap the 12's in the west and south and swap the 16s in the west and east.
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Ed.: No, on second thought there's a big improvement if you swap Michigan/Louisville and Nebraska/K-State. It looks like everything still works, and now you get potential irresistibles like Michigan/Harvard and Louisville/Kentucky.
And I'm sure you'll all like this version better than that UK second-round game.
So, #2 in the west:. Wofford, Providence/Harvard winner, San Diego St./Cincinnati/K-State in the third round.
Not great but I guess it's ok considering it's the first one I've ever tried.