247 Composite Class Calculator - Expected Finish #5 class (ish)

Submitted by Champeen on January 25th, 2016 at 4:02 PM

Michigan currently sits distant third with 267.47 points.

Taking Elliot, Johnson and Weaver off expected commit list: 260.46 points.

Adding the following 10 per most probable according to this site:

McDoom
Stewart
Allen
Nordin
Gary
Hudson
Murphy
Young
Hill
Fuller

Gives 283.68 points.

IMO, we do not get Fuller, but keep Elliot: 284.15 points.

Either of the above places Michigan 2nd to LSU's 286.57 (if all other teams stay the same which they wont). Both above point totals would have placed 5th last year in recruiting class rankings.

5th place +/- 2 spots seems about right for our final projected finish.

Comments

Champeen

January 25th, 2016 at 4:14 PM ^

Absolutely.  I believe i posted one last week'ish and someone else posted further research.  I believe they stated every national championship team last x years had at least 2 top 10 recruiting classes within 5 years of their national championship.

* whoever posted that resarch, verify if my memory is correct - im old *

#5 class is pretty damn awesome - ESPECIALLY with a pro coaching staff to coach them up.

ak47

January 25th, 2016 at 4:42 PM ^

I hate when people say stuff like this like there aren't guys rated higher the staff tried to get and didn't.  I'm sure our class will be good but it won't be the 30 ish guys the staff want the most it will be like 15 guys the staff had on the top of their boards and a bunch of plan b's and c's which is fine but recruiting services generally get things right.  I bet Michigan would love to have greg little over every OL recruit in the class but they won't get him.  That doesn't make the recruiting sites wrong about little.

Mr Miggle

January 25th, 2016 at 5:30 PM ^

I think some of the recruits we're in on late; like McDoom, Hudson and Oche, are better than some we lost out on earlier. They also appear to be clearly better than their rankings and not just because we should trust the coaches. Obviously we're not going to get anything like the top 30 recruits on a wish list, but rankings and evaluations are fluid. I'm hoping this kind of finish will leave us with a class that's a bit underrated by the services.

SoDak Blues

January 25th, 2016 at 4:06 PM ^

Not only will we have a top five recruiting class, but that class will then develop under Harbaugh and Co. It is a great fricking time to be a Michigan Wolverine. 

RobM_24

January 25th, 2016 at 4:06 PM ^

Ours will be skewed bc of quantity though, correct? We'll have a good class score, but our average score per recruit will be well outside the top5 (I think)?

Indonacious

January 25th, 2016 at 5:14 PM ^

Only problem is that typically larger classes will have lower avg star ratings because its difficul to filll a class of 30 with all elite talent vs. a class of 18 assuming that schools are only "in it" for a finite group of elite recruits and that some high level recruits only want to be a part of a class with a finite number of elite recruits at their position.

247 adjusts for class size pretty fairly in my opinion. They basically make it so that your lower rated recruits contribute incrementally smaller amounts to the class score. For example, removing the lowest 5 ranked recruits from our class drops our overall score to 263.65 from 267.47 (we would actually still be #3). I

n other words, big classes don't really inflate the rankings that much at all but do take into account that one of the bottom 10 players may emerge into willie henry type and therefore should probably be included in the ratings in some fashion.

Avon Barksdale

January 25th, 2016 at 4:19 PM ^

You could take our last five commits on the list on 247, and it would take very little off our point total while increasing our star average. The reason we won't finish number one is lack of "elite" recruits. We'll probably finish with around 14 four stars and 1 five star. Alabama (who will probably finish first) will probably end up with like 12-13 four stars and 4-5 five stars.

That is why they are a dynasty. While we have a number of top 250 guys, Alabama gets a ton of top 100 guys.

MGoStrength

January 25th, 2016 at 8:01 PM ^

MSU was a fluke so OK I can see looking past them a little, but we got our butts handed to us by OSU with our supposed great defense doing little to slow them down.

 

I truely believe Harbaugh will compete with OSU and win his fair share unlike we've seen in the past 15 years, but I don't think we'll get there without matching them class for class in recruiting (or being withen a few rankings).  I like what our coaches are doing in terms of scheme and development, but it's not like they've shown it to be superior to what OSU is doing or given us reason to believe we can beat them with less talent.  We have to win with recruiting (or be close) to win on the field IMO.

ldd10

January 25th, 2016 at 4:27 PM ^

Big Ten East is going to be pretty nuts going forward.  UM, MSU and OSU are all recruiting really well.  PSU doing well, but imploding.