2/17 Bracketology Update

Submitted by LS And Play on February 17th, 2017 at 11:40 AM

A few major bracketologists have come out with their Friday updates, and Michigan has moved into the high single digit seed range.

CBS Sports: 9-seed vs. Miami.

SB Nation: 9-seed.

USA Today: 9-seed vs. Dayton. 

The Bracket Matrix hasn't been updated to reflect our win over Wisconsin as of yet. Beat Minnesota and we'll be playing for seeding barring a meltdown. 

Comments

Bambi

February 17th, 2017 at 11:45 AM ^

Prior to our win yesetrday Lunardi had as 10 seed playing South Carolina in the first. I'd guess we're up to a 9 seed now but that bracket also proved Lunardi's incompetence, since the committee wouldn't have a rematch in the first round.

funkywolve

February 17th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^

in Lunardi's bracket are NU and Minny (no way the NCAA has two teams from the same conference play in the first round) and Xavier.  You'd probably flip MSU (he has them playing Xavier) and UM.

Mr. Yost

February 17th, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^

Incompetence? He gets like 64 of 68 teams correct every year.

It's a about the seed a month out. No one is going to guess the matchups correctly or take "rule" into consideration. BYU can't play on Sunday's...so they have to be in a Thursday/Saturday bracket. I doubt he's taking every nuance into consideration at this point.

LS And Play

February 17th, 2017 at 4:20 PM ^

Most people who follow college basketball could get 64 out of 68 teams right. That's why dozens of random .blogspot people outperform Lunardi on Bracket Matrix. I'm not saying he sucks, it's just that you have the AQs as well as 30-32 at-larges that are basically guaranteed, and then you have a dozen or so teams fighting for the last 6 spots or so. 

jmblue

February 17th, 2017 at 4:28 PM ^

Given that he changes his predictions daily, if he actually only gets 64 out of 68 teams right in a typical year, that would be quite poor.   By the final weekend, about 60 of the teams in the tournament are locks; there aren't that many genuine bubble teams at the end.

I think his record is a little better than that but still, even getting all 68 right isn't that hard when you can make your final prediction on Selection Sunday itself. 

 

 

raleighwood

February 17th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^

NC State fired Mark Gottfried this week (or will at the end of the season).  I'm sure that Archie Miller will be at the top of their list.  He and his wife both graduated from NCSU.....it seems like a pretty good fit.

On the other hand, I heard last night (might have been during the Michigan game), that Archie might not be interested in the NCSU job.  There's a A LOT of pressure to win there and going head-to-head against Duke and UNC every year isn't the best way to grow a program.  It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

FatGuyTouchdown

February 17th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^

but at the same time Coach K is 70, and Roy Williams is 66. Both of those dudes probably wont be there sooner, rather than later, and all it takes is one bad hire for NC State to pass them up in the heirarchy for the time being. Think of it like the OSU-Michigan-Sparty triangle. 

 

TrueBlue2003

February 17th, 2017 at 2:46 PM ^

UNC and Duke have the cache and the cash and the pressure not to let a bad hire hurt them for too long, like Michigan.  Even if they whiff on a replacement, he'd only get three years tops before they back the money truck up again, like Michigan.  They wouldn't stay down for long.

Miller could have a Dantonio-like few year run with his rival down, but it wouldn't remain like that long.

NC State does have a much better basketball pedigree and history than MSU football though.  They were a marquee program in the 80s and prior.  They were the true rival to UNC up until then and it was only Coach K that put Duke on the map and moved them ahead of NC State.  So there is a little more to work with there.  I bet Miller gives it serious consideration, and wouldn't be surprised if he goes there.

bluesalt

February 17th, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^

The OP said beating Minny should get us in "barring a meltdown."  Winning Sunday would put us at 18-9 -- failing to to get to 20 wins means we'd have gone 1-3 (or worse) over the final 4 regular season games and gotten bounced in the first round of the B1G tournament.   By necessity we'd have lost to one of Rutgers and Nebraska.  I think that qualifies as a meltdown, so the OP has your point of contention covered.

TrueBlue2003

February 17th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^

those are our only two losses (@RU and BTT) and we win @Minny, Purdue, @NW and @Neb, not only are we going to the tourney, we're a 7 or 8 seed.  We can lose to Rutgers as long as we still win at least 3 other games. Let's not lose to Rutgers though.

jonesie022

February 17th, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^

Other than Rutgers, KenPom has the remaining four games as +/- 3 points either way.

 

Hearing 4 of 5 on the road sounds intimidating but we have had success recently at all four venues and all are not that intimidating,  I could honestly see us running the table.

Hell, even a top 4-5 seed in the B10 tourney is not out of the realm of possibility which is huge.  Top 4 get double byes and 5 plays Rutgers which is basically a double bye.

Mitch Cumstein

February 17th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^

For me the target should be getting up to the 6 line. That would take a great run down the stretch, and some help. Otherwise I'd almost rather be a 7 or 10 than 8-9. Better shot at the 2nd weekend. In summary, keep winning.

Boner Stabone

February 17th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^

The bubble is extremely soft this year.  I see teams on the bubble with losing records in their conference.  3 wins and we are safe or 2 and a first round BTT win and we are safe.

LSAClassOf2000

February 17th, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^

TeamRankings is going with an 11-seed for Michigan right now, 69% chance of getting in and a projected 20-11 record. They are predicting 8% for an auto-bid, as they normally put that out there too. 

They are projecting 8 bids for the ACC, 6 for the Big Ten, 5 each for the Big East, Pac-12, SEC and Big XII as well

Michifornia

February 17th, 2017 at 2:17 PM ^

We know this can all go up in a poof of smoke.  Very fluid and will likely change after each game.  Gotta love how we're trending though and the way the team is playing right now.  They keep it up, we could move up a little.  Bottom line, just make the dance!!

GO BLUE!!

BLHoke

February 17th, 2017 at 4:04 PM ^

This team is fun, interesting and frustrating at the same time. If just 3 50/50 games go our way, I think we're perceived in a much different light nationally. The Va Tech game we pretty much led the whole way and collapsed at the end. The officiating @ Wisconsin was horrendous... And the OSU debacle. Win those 3 games and we're 20-6. By comparison, WVU is 20-6 and a fringe top 10 team. I think this team ultimately winds up as an 8-10 seed and if it plays up to its potential could make a Sweet 16 run... If they play like they did in 2 of the 3 aforementioned games, they'll get bounced in the 1st round.

SFBlue

February 17th, 2017 at 5:06 PM ^

Agree. When I think of this year the Va. Tech game really sticks out in my mind. Until the last two weeks I thought that game would be the story of this team, in 40 minutes. Missed opportunities, blown leads, unrealized potential. It may yet be the story. But senior leadership in the last three games has changed the narrative. The seniors have the ability to elevate this team to an elite level. And when Wagner and Wilson get active challenges (without fouling), this is also a quite good defensive team. 

Taking a step back, this team has destoyed solid competition (SMU, MSU, Indiana) like it hasn't done since the '13 title run. Maybe the last three wins will give this team the confidence to play with consistency. 

 

SFBlue

February 17th, 2017 at 9:39 PM ^

RPI is still terrible at 54. There are no teams below this level of RPI who are definitely in the Tournament. I read somewhere that the NCAA is going away from RPI this year, but it is still a factor. 

TrueBlue2003

February 18th, 2017 at 1:16 AM ^

now, but weird that we only bumped up a couple spots after beating Wisconsin.  They're still using RPI this year, but supposedly moving away from it next year.  I feel like they're aware of the flaws and have been considering it's limitations for a couple years when evaluating bubble teams.

Definitely would like to get that up and a couple road wins should do it.