Is the 2016 team better than the 2006 team? Do you expect a big drop off in 2017?

Submitted by bo_lives on

Obviously the Orange Bowl will give us more info. But before the season started, I felt uneasy about calling this "the year" and Brian's prediction of 12-0. I got on the hype train pretty quickly of course, but in hindsight I don't think this team was as talented top to bottom as the 2006 team. A Jim Harbaugh/Don Brown coached 2006 team would have walked away with the Big Ten Title and the National Championship.

This is not my attempt at a hot-take. I do think year's defense was better than the 2006 defense. But in 2006 we had NFL caliber impact players on offense AND defense. This year's offense was a bunch of question marks. A Borges recruit at QB with no track record? (and later, we found, no viable backup in O'Korn) A hodge-podge of mediocre runningbacks and an offensive line that grew up under Funk? Compare that to the Henne/Hart/Long/Manningham/Arrington supersquad of '06. Coming into this year, the only NFL caliber player on offense we had was Butt, and I think it's a testament to the offensive genius of Harbaugh that this team ended up scoring more points than any Michigan team of the modern era.

We were clearly hoping for a '97 repeat, where an insane defease carried a mediocre offense. That could have happened, but the team was done in largely due to bad luck vs. Iowa and OSU, but mostly due to the offense's inability to show up when the defense put it in position to win (plus the fact that Urban Meyer is no John Cooper). The defense lived up to the hype--giving up 13 points @ Iowa and 17 points @ OSU should win you those games 9 out of 10 times with a solid offense. I don't buy into the idea that the defense simply fell apart late. Michigan could have salted the games away with long 3rd and 4th quarter scoring drives, but that's not what we got.

For these reason, I don't think 2017 portends as big of a drop off as anyone imagines. There will be plenty of question marks on defense, but like 2015 OSU it's hard to assess the second string when they're only playing in gargabe time. The offense will have question marks too, but if Speight pulls off a Rudockian bowl game the only game on the 2017 schedule that truly scares me is the one at Camp Randall, which will likely be a night game. My prediction: 11-1 and we beat OSU, Raback it.

EDIT: My argument is that the 2006 team was overall more talented than the 2016 team is. The 2016 defense beats out the 2006 defense, but the 2006 offense had the big guns. You put Harbaugh and Brown at the helm in 2006 and Michigan goes 13-0. We beat OSU 53-23. Brown doesn't get fooled by OSU's 4 and 5 wide reciever spreads that obliterated our secondary.

funkywolve

December 6th, 2016 at 1:36 PM ^

Agree.  After the regular season in 2017, the record might not be much different than 10-2 but I'm not expecting the 2017 team to steamroll through most of the regular season like the 2016 team did.  

uncle leo

December 6th, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^

How anything will pan out. We can do all the depth chart speculation in the world, we can freak out about talented seniors leaving. Once you become a consistent power like Alabama and Ohio State, those guys are replaced with players of the same talent level.

I think the schedule lines up more favorably this season than last. Florida's offense is so pathetic, I don't see how Michigan loses that game. I still don't buy into the Penn State revival. The at Wisconsin game is going to be a huge challenge, and Ohio State as always.

There's just so much shifting of personnel between now and next September. Freshman could come in and surprise everyone. 

Squader

December 6th, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^

Overall I think the 2006 team was more complete - or maybe another way to put it would be that 2006 had a higher ceiling. But it's hard to ignore that 2016's defense gave up 10 to OSU in regulation while 2006's gave up 42.

Perkis-Size Me

December 6th, 2016 at 1:51 PM ^

Tough to say. Talent-wise, I'd say they're both comparable. 2006 probably had more. Especially on the offensive side of the ball. Henne > Speight. Hart > Smith. Breaston and Manningham > Darboh and Chesson. But I'd say the 2016 team probably beats the 2006 team, because they have a HUGE advantage in coaching. 

Lloyd seemingly refused to adapt his game to the modern era. Its part of the reason why his teams would get run over by OSU and USC every single year. Harbaugh is a pro-style guy, but he adapts his game to his players and to the team he's playing. You're going to see new sets almost every week. 

A Harbaugh-coached team, in my opinion, would make a Carr-coached team look bad. 

GoBlue in IA

December 6th, 2016 at 1:55 PM ^

I don't understand the thinking of "this was our one year to be great" mentality.  Do we really think Harbaugh's recruits are going to be worse than Hoke's?  Outside of some awesome DL personnel, I would take Harbaugh's dudes over Hoke's guys any day.

I also don't understand why we are afraid of a drop off because we lose so many upperclassmen.  Coming into 2016, there were major questions at LB, QB, and OL to some extent.  Ben Gedeon turned out pretty good (somehow couldn't get past Joe Bolden), so did McCray.  I believe we are all about to witness what Bo did in his career - we simply reload each year.  

I will also predict a huge win vs OSU next year.  This game played out just like Sparty in '15 - tough, competitive, just not enough to snuff them out.  Look what we did to Sparty this year.  We have the right coaching staff to ge the job done, and I for one am tired of all the "sky is falling" and we will never beat OSU.

stephenrjking

December 6th, 2016 at 2:07 PM ^

You think that we will lose most of our key players from this season's team that lost to OSU, while they bring almost everybody back, but we'll improve more than they will? I cannot take whatever it is you imbibing. 

Your lack of understanding about the issues we face next year appears to be directly related to your lack of knowledge of what the roster looks like last year. 

You say you would take Harbaugh's dudes over Hoke's guys any day. Well, that's the point--the guys that Hoke recruited to be junior and seniors this year aren't going to fill out the roster of a championship-contending team. So we're left with Harbaugh's guys, mostly freshman and sophomores. 

Teams that play lots of freshman and sophomores usually have a hard time. 

GoBlue in IA

December 6th, 2016 at 2:41 PM ^

Class eligibility is not directly correlated to team performance.  Yes the 2017 team will be young, but it will be more talented and more athletic than the 2016 team.  We now have speed at key offensive positions - something we have not had in decades.  McDoom is a freaking true freshman and look what he did  - same can be said for Chris Evans.  These guys are difference makers.  Harbaugh will add more with this next recruiting class.  

I do have more faith in a more seasoned team when it comes to the mental aspect of the game, especially how to win on the road or in close games.  But talent can be the equalizer.  I will take my chances with a young talented team vs a seasoned, less talented team.

Regarding OSU, my eyes tell me we have seen Meyer peak at OSU.  They are really talented and fast, but his system is not infallible.  We have the right defensive coordinator to counter all of the moves Meyer can make.  They will continue to be a tough out, but we can play with them year in and year out. 

Ghost of Fritz…

December 6th, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^

the 2016 OSU team.  They have flaws. 

They came very close to losing to Michigan, MSU, and Wisconsin.  They did not put IU away until the 4th quarter. 

There is a reason that OSU was unable to put the game out of reach at Penn State, and allowed Penn State to stay close enough to shoot the moon and get a win against them in the 4th quarter.   

At times their offense sputtered, even against lesser teams.

Like Michigan, against mediocre to bad defenses, they can score a lot (see the OSU-Oklahoma game). 

However, also ike Michigan, they do NOT have a dominant o-line (unlike OSU in 2015). 

Did their receivers corps look special?  Not really.  

Webber is a nice back.  But he probably will never be close to Elliot. 

Barrett is an elusive runner, but a streaky and erratic passer. 

Maybe OSU 2017 will be a top 5 team. 

Maybe they won't. 

But they are not some unstoppable force, no matter how many guys they return. 

 

stephenrjking

December 6th, 2016 at 4:46 PM ^

What evidence do you have that Meyer has peaked at OSU, apart from your lying eyes? Do you have any idea how good their recruiting class is this year? Do you have any idea how many players Michigan loses from this year's defense? 

You simply have no evidence to make the assertions you are making. A couple of good Evans runs against bad opponents and some nice McDoom end arounds? Nice plays, nice players. There's a lot of room between what limited things they've accomplished as freshmen and a team that is ready to compete for a national title next season. A lot of room.

As it happens, I have argued that the skill position players next year will be able to nearly match the quality of the guys this year (though that "decades" remark is a big stretch). But the defense, which you decline to address, will take a significant step back in talent. 

Ghost of Fritz…

December 7th, 2016 at 9:02 AM ^

that the idea that OSU has 'peaked' has no basis in evidence. 

But, the thing that could give them a few losses in 2017 is if they are basically the same as in 2016, but random things result in a few losses. 

They came very close to losing to MSU, Mcihigan, and Wisconsin.  If the cookie crumbles a bit differently in 2017, maybe they lose 3  or 4.  As I said above, they are not a team without flaws. 

And the thing that could bring them back to earth after 2017 is if the next QB just does not work out for Meyer' system. 

Not saying it will happen.  But all elite programs face the risk that the next QB just won't work out as well as projected. 

This is part of what happened to Oregon in 2015 and 2016.

And Florida never found a guy that worked as well as Tebow for Meyer's system. 

Florida continuted to recruit at a super high level, and everyone thought they were just going to keep winning big.  But in part due to QBs that just did not hit it big, they regressed. 

drzoidburg

December 6th, 2016 at 2:45 PM ^

Except they didn't lose to Ohio. That was a win period, and on the road

The offensive line this year was just average, particularly in pass protect. 8 months to develop for the guys on the bench and even a recruit could step up. The WRs and RBs and maybe even QB, likewise. The D-Line that was so dominant was at least 2 deep, so even though it loses a lot, also returns plenty. The most noticeable loss by far will be in secondary. As for inexperience, Ohio was filled with freshman-sophomore this year, so if you think they won the game, i don't understand where you're coming from. Fact is by 12th game, they aren't really rookies any more either

umichshea

December 6th, 2016 at 2:46 PM ^

I was going to write this...but you already did it so well. Any fan predicting better than 8-4 next year has not looked at the roster ref offensive and defensive lines. I believe that starting in '18 Harbaugh will have a roster that can begin to turn itself over with experienced talent year after year.

If they win 9 or more games next year Harbaugh will have made up for this year's choke job.

As to the other question...2006 was a much better roster with a worse staff.




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GoBlue in IA

December 6th, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^

So looking at the schedule next year, who are we going to lose to?  I just don't see more than 2 games that scare me - at PSU and OSU.  With all offseason to prepare for Florida, Harbaugh will be enough difference for us to win. 

Prior to Harbaugh, many games on the schedule were toss-ups or outright high loss potential.  With Harbaugh we are going to be in every game, regardless of the current makeup of the roster.  

charblue.

December 6th, 2016 at 6:40 PM ^

and of course Herbstreit points out that Ohio State is one of the youngest teams in college football while Michigan will graduate almost half its roster, and the implication is, Buckeye domination in this series will inevitabl continue given the circumstances. I always find Herbstreit's commentary biased couched in the bs lexicon he has mastered in damning with faint praise while exclaiming the remarkable virtue of any small-time effort or achievement. So an offensive line that gives up 8 sacks, is not a a monumental failure on the part of an Oline overcome by better talent, not just Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State, but a simple struggle at one tackle posiition. If struggle puts your season on the line, then you've got no one else to stem the tide and you are totally fucked when you play Alabama.

BlueHills

December 6th, 2016 at 1:59 PM ^

Coaching is the difference-maker. Carr was an extremely good coach, and recruited great talent. His national championship and league titles certainly count and prove that.

Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the nation, there's little doubt of that. I think a season much like this one is possible with not much, if any, dropoff in results. Will he have the horses to compete for an NC? Remains to be seen.

I was very happy with the team's performance this year. 4 points away from an undefeated regular season is something pretty special.

jblaze

December 6th, 2016 at 2:27 PM ^

We. Need an explosive player on Offense to emerge.

Maybe Evans takes the leap? Maybe Crawford? Who knows, but without that we should be worse, simply because of losing Jabrill.

drzoidburg

December 6th, 2016 at 2:36 PM ^

2006 was MUCH better offensively in tough games, but the defense also faltered against tougher (spread) offenses. It's difficult to say because there is no premier offense on Michigan's schedule this year, but i think 2016 is a shutdown defense against any team. The offense talent level though was certainly better in 2006. Yeah, Harbaugh led this team far past its expected ceiling, but i think 2006 also proved how adaptable Carr's staff was at the time. Just compare them to 2003, and compare 2003 to say 2000. When they had experience and talent, his teams were explosive in a way Harbaugh hasn't had the opportunity to prove here yet, except against sisters of the poor. On the road against non Rutgers level trash (only 3 games admittedly), i give the edge to 2006. At home, it goes to 2016

As for 2017, I'm more optimistic than some. I'm worried about the secondary but aside from that, the team should be loaded and with Harbaugh recruits stepping up

Chitown Kev

December 6th, 2016 at 2:37 PM ^

I think that the 2006 offense was considerably more talented even if they didn't play up to their capabilities because of Lloydball.

I think that 2017 might surprise us.